AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks turned lower on Thursday as investors fretted about the simmering tensions between the United States and North Korea, sending Seoul shares skidding to two-month lows even as the previous day's rush into safe-haven assets appeared to slow. The declines in some Asian bourses, like Japan's Nikkei, were limited after Wall Street shares closed barely lower overnight, trimming losses, as investors appeared to brush off geopolitical concerns. Currency markets focused on the U.S. producer price index data due later in the session. Investors will study the numbers to get a feel for the U.S. inflation trend and any impact the data could have on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
  • Gold prices held early gains in Asia on Thursday with the market alert for more of the war of words between North Korea and Washington stoking geopolitical tension in the region. Gold prices spiked to one-week highs Wednesday, on the back of a surge in safe haven demand, after North Korea said it is considering an attack on the U.S. pacific territory of Guam. Safe-haven demand rose after North Korea said it was "carefully examining" a plan to strike Guam, where a U.S. military base is located, shrugging off President Donald Trump’s earlier warning that further threats to the United States will be met with "fire and fury". The surge in gold prices come a day after the yellow metal snapped a three-day winning streak, as investors cheered U.S. job openings data that topped expectations suggesting the U.S. labor market continues to strengthened, raising the prospect of the Federal Reserve hiking rates later this year. The producer price index and the consumer price index data due Thursday and Friday, will offer market participants fresh insight on whether the pace of inflation remains subdued – the slowdown inflation has been a key concern for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged in July amid concerns about the slowdown in inflation but expressed optimism that its long-term target of about 2% inflation would be met. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.
  • The yen rebounded in Asia from an early dip on Thursday amid continued geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula and the kiwi fell on a more dovish than expected view on interest rates going forward. In Japan, core machinery orders dropped 1.9% on month in June, well below the 3.7% gain seen and fell at 5.2% pace annually compared to a 1.0% drop seen. As well, producer prices in Japan rose 0.3% on month in July, a tick higher than the 0.2% gain seen and at a 2.6% gain on year, also beating expectations. Earlier, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate at a record low 1.75% as expected on Thursday and said that it expects a neutral view to persist with inflation projections well anchored around 2%. Overnight, the dollar eased from session highs against a basket of global currencies on Wednesday, as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea intensified, lifting investor demand for safe havens like gold and the yen. The dollar eased from two-week highs, as market participants fled risky assets on the back of U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning to North Korea on Tuesday that the isolated nation faces "fire and fury" if it makes more threats to the United States Trump’s comments came hours after revelations the Kim Jong-un led nation had successfully created a miniaturized nuclear weapon designed to fit inside its missiles. Geopolitical tensions deepened, after Pyongyang replied it was "carefully examining" a plan to strike Guam, where a U.S. military base is located, prompting investors to seek safe haven assets like the yen. The U.S. central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged in July amid concerns about the slowdown in inflation but expressed optimism that its long-term target of about 2% inflation would be met.
  • Oil futures rose on Thursday after official figures showing U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected, but the market is clearly settling into a range amid quiet trading, analysts said. U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week as refineries boosted output to the highest percentage of capacity in 12 years, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. U.S. oil inventories dropped by 6.5 million barrels last week, the government data showed, steeper than the expected decrease of 2.7 million barrels. Refiners processed nearly 17.6 million barrels of crude, surpassing a record set in May and the most for any week since the U.S. Department of Energy started keeping data in 1982. But a surprise increase in gasoline stocks is capping gains in oil prices and tempering attempts by the OPEC, Russia and other producers to boost prices that are about half of levels three years ago. They are cutting output by about 1.8 million bpd under an agreement set to run until March 2018. The deal has supported prices but a recovery in output in Libya and Nigeria, OPEC members exempt from the cut, has also complicated the initiative.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th August 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,279-1,288 1,296 1,304
Silver-XAG 17.35-17.70 18.35 18.60
Crude Oil 49.80 50.60 51.50-52.00
EURO/USD 1.1770 1.1840-1.1900 1.1840-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3090-1.3140 1.3090-1.3140 1.3200
USD/JPY 110.00 110.90-111.60 112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th August 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,270-1,260 1,254 1,249-1,241
Silver-XAG 16.90-16.50 16.00 15.60-15.30
Crude Oil 49.20 48.50 47.50-47.00
EURO/USD 1.1600 1.1600 1.1520
GBP/USD 1.2960-1.2900 1.2825 1.2760
USD/JPY 109.50-109.10 108.50 108.05

Intra-Day Strategy (10th August 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Wednesday on and made its intraday high of 1278.62/oz and intraday low of US$1260.04/oz. Gold down by 1.342% at US$1277.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1305 keeping stop loss closing above 1305 and targeting 1270-1264-1254 and 1249-1241. Buy above 1270-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288 and 1296-1305.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,270-1,260
S2     1,254
S3     1,249-1,241
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,279-1,288
R2     1,296
R3     1,304

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.647

Buy
20-DMA   1257.21 Buy
50-DMA  

1251.41

Buy
100-DMA   1253.52 Buy
200-DMA   1230.07 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.068 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   7.878 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Wednesday on made its intraday high of US$16.94/oz and intraday low of US$16.41/oz. Silver settled up by 3.107% at US$16.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.02), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-14.90 targeting 17.35-17.70 and 18.35-18.60; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 17.35-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.90-16.50
S2     16.00
S3     15.60-15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.35-17.70
R2     18.35
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.860 Buy
20-DMA   16.48 Buy
50-DMA   16.54 Sell
100-DMA   16.98 Sell
200-DMA   17.06 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.174 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.083 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US49.69/bbl and made an intraday low of US$48.89/bbl and settled up 1.449% at US$48.68/bbl on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 49.80-52.00 with stop loss at 52.00; targeting 49.20-48.50-47.50 and 47.00-46.10. Buy above 49.20-47.10 with risk daily closing below 47.00 and targeting 49.80-50.60 and 51.50-52.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.20
S2     48.50
S3     47.50-47.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     49.80
R2     50.60
R3     51.50-52.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.263 Sell
20-DMA   48.31 Sell
50-DMA   46.47 Sell
100-DMA   48.05 Sell
200-DMA   49.50 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.103 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.914 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1688/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.1763/EUR and settled the day down by 0.059% at US$1.1757/EUR on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1770-1.1975 targeting 1.1770-1.1720 and 1.1680-1.1620-1.1580 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2080. Buy above 1.1720-1.1520 with risk below 1.1620 targeting 1.1840-1.1900 and 1.1980-1.2080.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1600
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1520

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1770
R2     1.1840-1.1900
R3     1.1840-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.699 Buy
20-DMA   1.1696 Buy
50-DMA   1.1449 Buy
100-DMA   1.1168 Buy
200-DMA   1.0902 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   25.953 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0101 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2967/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.3027/GBP and settled the day by 0.107% at US$1.3003/GBP on session close.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3090-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.2960 and 1.2900-1.2825, breakage above 1.3300 look for further upside with 1.3400 as targets. Buy above 1.3050-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.3300 targeting 1.3090-1.3140 and 1.3220-1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2960-1.2900
S2     1.2825
S3     1.2760

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3090-1.3140
R2     1.3090-1.3140
R3     1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.917

Buy
20-DMA   1.3066 Buy
50-DMA   1.2928 Buy
100-DMA   1.2839 Buy
200-DMA   1.2626 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.249 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0036 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Wednesday to made intra‐day low of JPY110.53/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.44/USD and settled the day down by 0.379% at JPY110.69/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 109.50-108.05 with targets of 110.00-110.90 and 111.60-112.00-113.00 with stop below 108.00. Sell below 110.0-112.00 with risk above 112.00 targeting 109.5-109.10 and 108.50-108.05.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.50-109.10
S2     108.50
S3     108.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00
R2     110.90-111.60
R3     112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.953 Buy
20-DMA   111.06 Sell
50-DMA   111.44 Sell
100-DMA   111.32 Sell
200-DMA   112.01 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   32.171 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.525 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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