AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian equity markets extended a global slide on Friday as tensions ramped up between the United States and North Korea, sending investors fleeing to less risky assets such the yen and the Swiss franc. Wall Street closed sharply lower after U.S. President Donald Trump issued a new round of fiery rhetoric, warning Pyongyang against attacking Guam or U.S. allies after it disclosed plans to fire missiles over Japan to land near the U.S. Pacific territory. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Many markets have recently climbed to record or multi-year highs, leaving them vulnerable to a sell-off. Chinese bluechips lost 1.6 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng was 1.9 percent lower. If North Korea launches an attack that threatens the United States, China should stay neutral, but if the U.S. attacks first and tries to overthrow North Korea's government, China will stop them, a Chinese state-run newspaper said on Friday. Trump's threat earlier this week, to unleash "fire and fury" on Pyongyang if it attacked, was ultimately dismissed as bluster by many investors. Trump's second warning, however, has shaken markets that have been largely resilient this year, swatting away a slew of risks. These have ranged from an investigation into Russia's possible interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, to concerns about China's risky debt levels, to stubbornly low inflation in the U.S. The CBOE Volatility Index, the most widely followed barometer of expected near-term U.S. stock market volatility, rose the most in about 12 weeks. Disappointing U.S. inflation and jobs data have not helped the dollar. U.S. producer prices unexpectedly recorded their biggest drop in nearly a year, and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week. Markets are now awaiting U.S. consumer price data for July, due later in the session.
  • Gold found support in Asia on Friday as tensions between North Korea and Washington show no signs of abating and investors looked ahead to data out of top gold buyer India on FX reserves for July and industrial production for June. Overnight, gold prices jumped to two-month highs Thursday, as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea remained while a duo of disappointing U.S. economic reports weighed on the dollar, lifting demand for the precious metal. Risk aversion continued for the second day in a row, lifting demand for the safe-haven gold, a day after North Korea said it was "carefully examining" a plan to strike Guam, where a U.S. military base is located. The release of inflation and initial jobless claims data failed to offset the flight to safety as both reports undershot expectations, stoking uncertainty over the Fed’s ability to raise rates later this year. The producer-price index fell 0.1% in July, the Labor Department said Thursday, the first drop since last August. The core rate, which excludes volatile categories of food, energy and trade, was flat in the month. Meanwhile, initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 244,000 for the week ended August 5, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists had forecast claims falling to 240,000. New York Fed President William Dudley, however, suggested Thursday, the central bank was on track to raise interest rates once more and begin shedding some bond holdings this year.
  • Oil prices fell more than 1.5% on Thursday, as a bruising day on Wall Street bolstered fears of slowing demand amid lingering concerns over a global oversupply of crude. U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on Thursday, with the Dow and the Nasdaq posting triple-digit point declines, as investors fretted over escalating tensions between the U.S. and North Korea. The falling U.S. stock market translated to weakness in the oil market, said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. And while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its outlook for oil demand in 2018 and cut its forecasts for output from rivals next year, yet another increase in the group's production suggested the market will remain in surplus despite efforts to limit supply. OPEC said its oil output rose by 173,000 bpd in July to 32.87 million bpd, led by the exempt producers plus top exporter Saudi Arabia, citing figures it collects from secondary sources. Crude prices are down nearly 7 percent so far this year, pressured by concern that output cuts by OPEC and its partners may not eliminate the global crude glut. Global crude stocks remain above their longer-term averages and with the U.S. summer driving season nearly at an end, Wednesday EIA data showed gasoline inventories rose for the first time in eight weeks. EIA data also showed inventories in the United States are at their lowest since October, having fallen for 10 of the last 12 weeks. While prices rose on Wednesday after the lower U.S. inventory numbers, Gene McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut said that information was not enough to sustain a rally.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th August 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,288-1,296 1,304 1,311
Silver-XAG 17.35-17.70 18.35 18.60
Crude Oil 48.50-49.20 49.80 50.60-51.50
EURO/USD 1.1770 1.1800 1.1840-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3000 1.3090-1.3140 1.3200
USD/JPY 109.50 110.00 110.90-111.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th August 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,279 1,270-1,260 1,254
Silver-XAG 16.90-16.50 16.00 15.60-15.30
Crude Oil 48.00 47.50-47.00 46.10
EURO/USD 1.1720-1.1680 1.1600 1.1520
GBP/USD 1.2960-1.2900 1.2825 1.2760
USD/JPY 109.10 108.50 108.05

Intra-Day Strategy (11th August 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Thursday on and made its intraday high of 1287.72/oz and intraday low of US$1274.55/oz. Gold up by 0.685% at US$1286.24/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1231) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1288-1311 keeping stop loss closing above 1311 and targeting 1278-1270-1264 and 1254-1249. Buy above 1278-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288 and 1296-1305.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,279
S2     1,270-1,260
S3     1,254
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,288-1,296
R2     1,304
R3     1,311

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

69.541

Buy
20-DMA   1260.46 Buy
50-DMA  

1251.74

Buy
100-DMA   1254.01 Buy
200-DMA   1230.10 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   94.185 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   9.495 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Thursday on made its intraday high of US$17.22/oz and intraday low of US$16.43/oz. Silver settled up by 3.107% at US$17.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.02), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-14.90 targeting 17.35-17.70 and 18.35-18.60; stop breakage below 15.30. Sell below 17.35-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.90-16.50
S2     16.00
S3     15.60-15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.35-17.70
R2     18.35
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.255 Buy
20-DMA   16.54 Buy
50-DMA   16.54 Sell
100-DMA   16.98 Sell
200-DMA   17.06 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.174 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.083 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US50.20/bbl, intraday low of US$48.33/bbl and settled down by 2.396% to close at US$48.47/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.77 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 48.50-51.50 with stop loss at 52.00; targeting 48.00-47.50 and 47.00-46.10. Buy above 48.00-46.10 with risk daily closing below 46.00 and targeting 48.50-49.20-49.80 and 50.60-51.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     48.00
S2     47.50-47.00
S3     46.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     48.50-49.20
R2     49.80
R3     50.60-51.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.463 Sell
20-DMA   48.32 Sell
50-DMA   46.45 Sell
100-DMA   48.04 Sell
200-DMA   49.50 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   27.6557 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.709 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1703/EUR, high of US$1.1784/EUR and settled the day up by 0.110% to close at US$1.1770/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.1283), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.0626-1.0600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1770-1.1975 targeting 1.1770-1.1720 and 1.1680-1.1620-1.1580 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2080. Buy above 1.1720-1.1520 with risk below 1.1620 targeting 1.1840-1.1900 and 1.1980-1.2080.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1720-1.1680
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1520

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1770
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1840-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.699 Buy
20-DMA   1.1696 Buy
50-DMA   1.1449 Buy
100-DMA   1.1168 Buy
200-DMA   1.0902 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   25.953 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0101 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2950/GBP, high of US$1.3014/GBP and settled the day by down by 0.107% to close at US$1.2975/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3000-1.3200 with targets at 1.2960-1.2900 and 1.2825-1.2760, breakage above 1.3300 look for further upside with 1.3400 as targets. Buy above 1.3050-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.3300 targeting 1.3090-1.3140 and 1.3220-1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2960-1.2900
S2     1.2825
S3     1.2760

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3000
R2     1.3090-1.3140
R3     1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.710

Buy
20-DMA   1.3062 Buy
50-DMA   1.2932 Buy
100-DMA   1.2848 Buy
200-DMA   1.2631 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.831 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0018 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Thursday to made intra‐day low of JPY109.14/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.17/USD and settled the day down by 0.781% at JPY109.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 109.50-108.05 with targets of 110.00-110.90 and 111.60-112.00-113.00 with stop below 108.00. Sell below 110.0-112.00 with risk above 112.00 targeting 109.5-109.10 and 108.50-108.05.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.10
S2     108.50
S3     108.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50
R2     110.00
R3     110.90-111.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.953 Buy
20-DMA   111.06 Sell
50-DMA   111.44 Sell
100-DMA   111.32 Sell
200-DMA   112.01 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   32.171 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.525 Sell

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