AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar slid against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday as weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data tempered expectations for a third interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. A Labor Department report showed that U.S. consumer prices edged up 0.1% in July from the prior month, below the 0.2% increase forecast by economists. The data was the latest in a string of weak inflation readings that investors worry will make the Fed more cautious about plans to raise interest rates again this year. Expectations that rates will remain lower tend to weigh on the dollar by making U.S. assets less attractive to yield-seeking investors. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.33% at 92.99 late Friday. For the week the index shed 0.49%. The yen and the Swiss franc posted large gains against the dollar for the week, rising 1.47% and 1.14% respectively as heightened tensions between the U.S. and North Korea sparked a flight to safety. The currencies are often sought in times of geopolitical tension or market turbulence because both countries have large current account surpluses. In the coming week, Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting will be in focus as investors look for more hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. A report on U.S. retail sales will also be closely watched. Elsewhere, UK data on inflation and employment will be in the spotlight amid ongoing concerns over the economic fallout from Brexit.
  • U.S. consumer prices rose slightly in July as higher food costs were partly offset by falling prices for a range of other goods, suggesting benign inflation that could persuade a cautious Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates until December. But with the labor market near full employment and economic growth accelerating, analysts expect the U.S. central bank will announce a plan to start unwinding its massive bond portfolio at its policy meeting next month. The Labor Department said on Friday its Consumer Price Index edged up 0.1 percent last month after being unchanged in June. That lifted the year-on-year increase in the CPI to 1.7 percent from 1.6 percent in June. The so-called core CPI rose 1.7 percent in the 12 months through July and has now increased by that margin for three consecutive months. Despite the modest gain in consumer prices, which came on the heels of a drop in producer prices in July, many economists continue to share the Fed's conviction that transitory factors were holding back inflation. Fed Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers last month that "some special factors," including prices for mobile phone plans and prescription drugs, were partly responsible for the low inflation readings. Mobile phone prices continued to decline in July, falling 0.3 percent. Prices of U.S. government debt initially rose on the inflation data, but pared gains after Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov said there was a Russian-Chinese plan to defuse tensions between the United States and North Korea. The Fed is expected to outline a program to start offloading its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities at its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting. It is expected to raise interest rates in December, though such a move would depend on future inflation data. The Fed has raised borrowing costs twice this year.
  • Oil prices settled higher on Friday, but still ended the week with a loss amid lingering concerns over a global supply glut. Aside from supply and demand, investors also closely followed developments in the U.S.-North Korea standoff. The International Energy Agency said OPEC's compliance with the cuts had fallen to 75% last month, the lowest since the deal began in January. The bearish compliance data comes a day after OPEC released its monthly report, showing production from the group rose further in July, led by gains in Libya and Nigeria, two members exempt from the cuts, and top exporter Saudi Arabia. OPEC and 10 producers outside the cartel, including Russia, agreed since the start of the year to slash 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018 in order to reduce a global supply glut and rebalance the market. However, so far, the deal has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria, as well as a relentless increase in U.S. shale output. Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported Friday that its weekly count of oil rigs operating in the U.S. ticked up by three rigs to a total of 768 last week. The weekly rig count is an important barometer for the drilling industry and serves as a proxy for oil production and oil services demand. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Meanwhile, traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th August 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,289-1,296 1,304 1,311
Silver-XAG 17.35-17.70 18.35 18.60
Crude Oil 49.20 49.80 50.60-51.50
EURO/USD 1.1840-1.1900 1.1950 1.1990
GBP/USD 1.3000 1.3090-1.3140 1.3200
USD/JPY 109.50 110.00 110.90-111.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th August 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,279 1,270-1,260 1,254
Silver-XAG 16.90-16.50 16.00 15.60-15.30
Crude Oil 48.50-48.00 47.50 47.00-46.10
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1770 1.1720 1.1680-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.2960-1.2900 1.2825 1.2760
USD/JPY 109.00-108.50 108.05 107.50

Intra-Day Strategy (14th August 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Buy

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold closed down Friday on and made its intraday high of 1292.07/oz and intraday low of US$1281.18/oz. Gold up by 0.187% at US$1288.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1230) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region and more upside is expected before it touched overbought region. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1289-1311 keeping stop loss closing above 1311 and targeting 1278-1270-1264 and 1254-1249. Buy above 1278-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288 and 1296-1305.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,279
S2     1,270-1,260
S3     1,254
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,289-1,296
R2     1,304
R3     1,311

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

70.909

Buy
20-DMA   1260.61 Buy
50-DMA  

1251.77

Buy
100-DMA   1254.01 Buy
200-DMA   1230.11 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   94.135 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   9.730 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver closed up Friday on made its intraday high of US$17.18/oz and intraday low of US$16.87/oz. Silver settled down by 0.001% at US$17.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.02), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.90-14.90 targeting 17.35-17.70 and 18.35-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.35-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.30-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.90-16.50
S2     16.00
S3     15.60-15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.35-17.70
R2     18.35
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.972 Buy
20-DMA   16.55 Buy
50-DMA   16.54 Buy
100-DMA   16.98 Buy
200-DMA   17.06 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.0365 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.125 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US48.96/bbl, intraday low of US$47.97/bbl and settled upby 2.396% to close at US$48.47/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US48.96/bbl, intraday low of US$47.97/bbl and settled upby 2.396% to close at US$48.47/bbl.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 49.20-51.50 with stop loss at 52.00; targeting 48.50-48.00-47.50 and 47.00-46.10. Buy above 48.50-46.10 with risk daily closing below 46.00 and targeting 49.20-49.80 and 50.60-51.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     48.50-48.00
S2     47.50
S3     47.00-46.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     49.20
R2     49.80
R3     50.60-51.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.240 Sell
20-DMA   48.35 Sell
50-DMA   46.46 Sell
100-DMA   48.05 Sell
200-DMA   49.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.599 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.751 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1747/EUR, high of US$1.1854/EUR and settled the day up by 0.424% to close at US$1.1747/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1732), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700.-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1840-1.2000 targeting 1.1800-1.1770-1.1720 and 1.1680-1.1620 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2080. Buy above 1.1800-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600 targeting 1.1840-1.1900 and 1.1980-1.2080.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1770
S2     1.1720
S3     1.1680-1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1840-1.1900
R2     1.1950
R3     1.1990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.062 Buy
20-DMA   1.1732 Buy
50-DMA   1.1472 Buy
100-DMA   1.1188 Buy
200-DMA   1.0910 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   67.762 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0099 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2938/GBP, high of US$1.3030/GBP and settled the day by up by 0.285% to close at US$1.3012/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2570) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3000-1.3200 with targets at 1.2960-1.2900 and 1.2825-1.2760, breakage above 1.3300 look for further upside with 1.3400 as targets. Buy above 1.3050-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.3300 targeting 1.3090-1.3140 and 1.3220-1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2960-1.2900
S2     1.2825
S3     1.2760

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3000
R2     1.3090-1.3140
R3     1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.621

Buy
20-DMA   1.3060 Buy
50-DMA   1.2934 Buy
100-DMA   1.2853 Buy
200-DMA   1.2631 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   33.983 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0018 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Friday to made intra‐day low of JPY108.72/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.39/USD and settled the day down by 0.054% at JPY109.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.90), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Long positions above 109.50-108.05 with targets of 110.00-110.90 and 111.60-112.00-113.00 with stop below 108.00. Sell below 110.0-112.00 with risk above 112.00 targeting 109.5-109.10 and 108.50-108.05.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.00-108.50
S2     108.05
S3     107.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50
R2     110.00
R3     110.90-111.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.402 Buy
20-DMA   110.68 Sell
50-DMA   111.37 Sell
100-DMA   111.28 Sell
200-DMA   112.46 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   13.881 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.692 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING