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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares withered on Tuesday and the yen firmed against the backdrop of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and as investors awaited fresh signals about the U.S. monetary policy outlook. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak later on Tuesday (1645 GMT) on “Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals”. Investors will be parsing her words for clues on whether the U.S. central bank will stick to its plan to raise interest rates in December. North Korea’s foreign minister said on Monday that a weekend tweet by President Donald Trump counted as a declaration of war on North Korea and that Pyongyang reserved the right to take countermeasures, including shooting down U.S. bombers even if they are not in its air space. North Korea has been moving airplanes and boosting defenses on its east coast after the United States dispatched B-1B bombers to the Korean peninsula over the weekend, South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported on Tuesday, citing the country’s spy agency. The yen tends to benefit during times of risk aversion due to Japan’s net creditor status and the expectation that Japanese investors would repatriate assets when facing a crisis. The euro steadied after tumbling on Monday following a severely diminished election victory for German Chancellor Angela Merkel that was accompanied by a surge in support for the far right. Support for Merkel’s conservatives unexpectedly slumped to its lowest since 1949 and the Social Democrats, partners in the outgoing coalition, said they would go into opposition. On Monday, New York Fed President William Dudley said the U.S. central bank is on track to gradually raise rates given factors depressing inflation are “fading” and the U.S. economy’s fundamentals are sound. But Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the Fed should wait until there are clear signs of faster wage and price growth before hiking rates again.
  • EUR/USD declined after Germany's federal election on Sunday showed growing support for a far-right party. Chancellor Angela Merkel won a fourth term in office on Sunday but will have to build a coalition to form a government as Conservatives lost support in the face of a surge by the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD). Earlier Monday, data showed that German business confidence edged lower in September. However, the reading remained close to the highest level on record, suggesting momentum in the euro zone's biggest economy remains strong. GBP/USD held steady, recovering from moderate losses posted on Friday after UK Prime Minister Theresa May gave few new indications on how Brexit will proceed. May proposed a transition period of around two years after the UK leaves the European Union, during which time access to the single market will continue on current terms. Following May's speech, ratings agency Moody's downgraded Britain's credit rating to Aa2, saying government plans to reduce debt had been knocked off course and that Brexit would weigh on the economy. Also Monday, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap general election that will decide whether the country sustains its massive economic stimulus. The vote is set for October 22. The ruling National Party won the largest number votes, but neither of the major parties won enough seats to gain a majority in parliament, forcing a round of coalition talks that could last days or weeks.
  • Oil prices took a breather on Tuesday after Brent crude earlier rose to a 26-month high, supported by Turkey’s threat to cut crude flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region to the outside world. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan threatened on Monday to cut off the pipeline that carries oil exports from northern Iraq, intensifying pressure on the Kurdish autonomous region over its independence referendum. The pipeline to Turkey’s port of Ceyhan usually pumps between 500,000 and 600,000 bpd. The loss of this supply combined with the 1.8 million bpd of supply cuts by the OPEC and non-OPEC producers has raised concerns of tighter supply. The Iraqi government said it will not hold talks with the Kurdistan Regional Government about the results of the referendum, which is expected to show a comfortable majority in favor of independence after the results are announced in about 72 hours. However, other analysts were cautious of further price gains because of higher oil output from the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said that production from wells in shale formations will rise for a 10th month in a row in October. U.S. crude prices have lagged behind Brent’s gains amid a large oversupply exacerbated by Hurricane Harvey, which forced the closure of nearly 25 percent of U.S. refining capacity. U.S. crude inventories likely rose by 2.3 million barrels last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed ahead of data by American Petroleum Institute (API). Gasoline stockpiles likely fell by 1 million barrels, while distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, were forecast to fall by 2.5 million barrels. The API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT).

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th September 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,311 1,319 1,324-1,330
Silver-XAG 17.50 18.00 18.35-19.00
Crude Oil 52.50-53.00 53.70 54.40
EURO/USD 1.1890-1.1950 1.1990 1.2050-1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3500 1.3610-1.3700 1.3770
USD/JPY 111.90 112.30 112.80-113.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th September 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,300-1,288 1,279 1,272
Silver-XAG 17.00 16.80-16.40 16.00
Crude Oil 52.00-51.50 51.00 52.50-53.00
EURO/USD 1.1825 1.1770-1.1700 1.1660
GBP/USD 1.3450 1.3400-1.330 1.3260
USD/JPY 111.50-111.10 110.35 109.80

Intra-Day Strategy (26th September 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1312.02/oz and low of US$1289.44/oz. Gold was up by 0.985% at US$1310.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1267) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1311-1340 keeping stop loss closing above 1340 and targeting 1300-1294-1288 and 1284-1276. Buy above 1300-1276 with risk below 1276, targeting 1311-1319 and 1324-1330.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,300-1,288
S2     1,279
S3     1,272
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,311
R2     1,319
R3     1,324-1,330

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.510

Buy
20-DMA   1320.90 Sell
50-DMA  

1292.51

Buy
100-DMA   1270.14 Buy
200-DMA   1246.35 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   61.913 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   2.604 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$17.16/oz and low of US$16.82/oz. Silver settled up by 1.179% at US$170.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (17.10), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.00-15.85 targeting 17.30-17.70-18.00 and 18.35-19.00; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 17.30 -19.30 with stop loss above 19.30; targeting 17.30--17.70 and 17.00-16.50-16.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.00
S2     16.80-16.40
S3     16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.50
R2     18.00
R3     18.35-19.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.158 Buy
20-DMA   17.54 Sell
50-DMA   17.08 Sell
100-DMA   16.88 Buy
200-DMA   17.10 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.664 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0147 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$52.26/bbl, intraday low of US$50.37/bbl and settled up by 2.88% to close at US$52.11/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 52.50-54.40 with stop loss at 54.40; targeting and 52.00-51.50 and 50.10-49.60-49.20. Buy above 52.00-49.60 with risk daily closing below 49.60 and targeting 51.00-51.50 and 52.00-52.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.00-51.50
S2     51.00
S3     52.50-53.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.50-53.00
R2     53.70
R3     54.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.095 Sell
20-DMA   49.21 Buy
50-DMA   48.58 Buy
100-DMA   47.64 Buy
200-DMA   49.49 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   85.511 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.995 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1831/EUR, high of US$1.1935/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0835% to close at US$1.1847/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1890-1.2090 targeting 1.1825-1.1770 and 1.1700-1.1660 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100. Buy above 1.1825-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600 targeting 1.1890-1.1950-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2095.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1825
S2     1.1770-1.1700
S3     1.1660

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1890-1.1950
R2     1.1990
R3     1.2050-1.2090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.167 Buy
20-DMA   1.1925 Buy
50-DMA   1.1831 Buy
100-DMA   1.1536 Buy
200-DMA   1.1102 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.261 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0022 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3430/GBP, high of US$1.3569/GBP and settled the day by down by 0.163% to close at US$1.3465/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3500-1.3770 with targets at 1.3450-1.3400-1.3350 and 1.3270-1.3200. Buy above 1.3450-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.3200 targeting 1.3500-1.3610-1.3700 and 1.3770-1.3850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3450
S2     1.3400-1.330
S3     1.3260

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3500
R2     1.3610-1.3700
R3     1.3770

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.0148

Buy
20-DMA   1.3262 Buy
50-DMA   1.3098 Buy
100-DMA   1.2988 Buy
200-DMA   1.2729 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.461 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0145 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY Monday to made intra‐day low of JPY111.46/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.52/USD and settled the day down by 0.613% at JPY111.72/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (112.15), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.90-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.50-111.0 and 110.35-109.50. Long positions above 111.90-113.60 with targets of 111.90-112.80 and 113.60-114.00 with stop below 109.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-111.10
S2     110.35
S3     109.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.90
R2     112.30
R3     112.80-113.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.921 Buy
20-DMA   110.42 Buy
50-DMA   110.30 Buy
100-DMA   111.07 Buy
200-DMA   112.09 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   41.673 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.536 Sell

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