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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares regained some poise on Friday after a tough week in which the gathering risk of a U.S. rate rise lifted Treasury yields toward nine-year highs and boosted borrowing costs across the region. Activity was mainly confined to book-squaring for the end of the month and quarter, and moves in markets were modest at best. Many markets in the region have been cold-shouldered this week as investors priced in a greater probability of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve in December. Adding to the upward pressure was President Donald Trump’s proposals for steep tax cuts which, if passed, could benefit U.S. corporations’ profit margins. The plan, however, lacked any detail on how it might be paid for and faced much opposition in Congress. Still, a tax cut that made U.S. equities more attractive while lifting the dollar and Treasury yields would likely prove negative for emerging markets, particularly those that relied heavily on foreign investment. The risk alone was enough to rattle share, bond and currency markets in Asia on Thursday, and they will remain vulnerable to headlines on the tax package as it moves through Congress. Early readings on Chinese manufacturing are out on Saturday ahead of a week-long holiday in the Asian giant. The EU also faces more political uncertainty on Sunday when Catalan separatists are set to defy Spanish efforts to block an independence referendum.
  • The dollar inched higher against a basket of major currencies on Friday and was on track for its biggest weekly gain so far this year as investors pondered the Trump administration's tax plan and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. The dollar has risen on renewed hopes for U.S. tax reform, as well as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that stressed the need for gradual interest rate hikes. Profit-taking and caution about political hurdles facing the U.S. tax plan seem to be tempering the dollar's momentum, said Stephen Innes, head of trading in Asia-Pacific for Oanda in Singapore. The White House struggled on Thursday to defend its new tax plan against criticism that it would help the rich at the expense of lower classes, as Republicans in Congress prepared to move ahead with actual legislation. President Donald Trump had unveiled a plan on Wednesday that calls for lower tax rates for businesses and individuals as part of a comprehensive overhaul of the U.S. tax code. Later on Friday, investors will turn their focus to U.S. economic data, including the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for August. One focus for next week is U.S. job data due on Oct. 6. The common currency has rallied nearly 12 percent against the dollar so far this year as worries about the rise of anti-establishment political forces in Europe faded while expectations rose for tapering the European Central Bank’s stimulus. The euro, however, has been weighed down this week after the results of elections in Germany on Sunday. Chancellor Angela Merkel won a fourth term in office but will have to build an uneasy coalition to form a government. On Thursday, it had gained 0.4 percent, after Britain's Brexit secretary said "considerable progress" had been made in talks and the EU's chief negotiator praised a "new dynamic" from the prime minister.
  • Crude oil prices edged higher on Friday in Asia with sentiment underpinned by an ongoing rebalance of supply and demand and geopolitical tensions over rumblings for Kurdish independence in Iraq. As well, investors await the Baker Hughes rig count later on Friday for the weekly update on the number of U.S. rigs drilling for oil. Overnight, crude oil prices settled lower on Thursday as traders unwound some of their bullish bets on crude but sentiment on oil remained positive following inventory data on Wednesday showing a surprise draw in crude oil supplies. Crude oil prices fell as investors appeared to take profit on the recent rally which has seen oil prices hit multi-month highs on expectations that higher global demand would nudge the market closer toward rebalancing. Geopolitical tensions, meanwhile, limited downside momentum as Turkey vowed to deal only with the Iraqi government on crude oil exports after Iraqi Kurdistan voted overwhelmingly in favour of independence earlier this week. The pipeline linking northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan carries 500,000-600,000 barrels of crude per day. Crude oil prices are on track extended their weekly winning streak to four weeks following strong gains earlier this week on the back of data showing weekly crude exports jumped to their highest on record while refinery activity showed signs of stabilizing. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 1.9m barrels in the week ended Sept. 22, the Energy Information Agency reported Wednesday, confounding expectations of a rise of 3.4m barrels. he widening spread between brent and crude oil prices reached $7 earlier this week, prompted a sharp rise in demand for crude, spurring an increase in exports. The U.S exported record 1.5m barrels per day of crude oil last week, the EIA said Wednesday. The recent uptick in U.S. oil prices - above $50 a barrel – has spurred drilling activity, however, raising investor expectations of an uptick in shale output, which could weigh on upside momentum.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th September 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,288-1,294 1,300 1,311-1,319
Silver-XAG 17.00-17.50 18.00 18.35-19.00
Crude Oil 52.00 52.50-53.00 53.70
EURO/USD 1.1825-1.1890 1.1950 1.2000
GBP/USD 1.3450 1.3500 1.3610-1.3700
USD/JPY 112.80 113.60-114.00 114.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th September 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,279-1,271 1,263 1,252
Silver-XAG 16.70-16.35 16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 51.00 50.10-49.60 48.90
EURO/USD 1.1770 1.1700-1.1660 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3400 1.3350-1.3300 1.3260
USD/JPY 112.30 111.90 111.50-111.10

Intra-Day Strategy (29th September 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1288.70/oz and low of US$1277.62/oz. Gold was up by 0.413% at US$1287.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1267) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1288-1319 keeping stop loss closing above 1319 and targeting 1284-1273 and 1263-1252. Buy above 1284-1263 with risk below 1263, targeting 1288-1294-1300-1311 and 1319-1324.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,279-1,271
S2     1,263
S3     1,252
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,288-1,294
R2     1,300
R3     1,311-1,319

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.853

Buy
20-DMA   1316.74 Sell
50-DMA  

1293.73

Sell
100-DMA   1271.17 Buy
200-DMA   1247.72 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.285 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.691 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$16.88/oz and low of US$16.66/oz. Silver settled up by 0.717% at US$16.85/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (17.10), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.65 targeting 17.00-17.30-17.70 and 18.00-18.35; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 17.00 -19.30 with stop loss above 19.30; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70-16.35
S2     16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00-17.50
R2     18.00
R3     18.35-19.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.810 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.10 Sell
100-DMA   16.89 Sell
200-DMA   17.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.450 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.116 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$52.84/bbl, intraday low of US$51.21/bbl and settled down by 0.845% to close at US$51.59/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 52.00-54.40 with stop loss at 54.40; targeting and 51.00-50.10 and 49.60-48.90. Buy above 51.00-48.90 with risk daily closing below 48.90 and targeting 52.00-52.50 and 53.00-53.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     51.00
S2     50.10-49.60
S3     48.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.00
R2     52.50-53.00
R3     53.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   6.890 Sell
20-DMA   49.95 Buy
50-DMA   48.89 Buy
100-DMA   47.76 Buy
200-DMA   49.60 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   59.514 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.024 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1720/EUR, high of US$1.1803/EUR and settled the day up by 0.357% to close at US$1.1785/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1800-1.2000 targeting 1.1770-1.1700-1.1660 and 1.1600-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2000. Buy above 1.1770-1.1555 with risk below 1.1550 targeting 1.1825-1.1890 and 1.1950-1.1990.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1770
S2     1.1700-1.1660
S3     1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1825-1.1890
R2     1.1950
R3     1.2000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.986 Buy
20-DMA   1.1905 Buy
50-DMA   1.1840 Buy
100-DMA   1.1562 Buy
200-DMA   1.1122 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.700 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0010 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3341/GBP, high of US$1.3454/GBP and settled the day by up by 0.433% to close at US$1.3441/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3450-1.3770 with targets at 1.3400-1.3350 and 1.3270-1.3200. Buy above 1.3400-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.3200 targeting 1.3400-1.3450-1.3500 and 1.3610-1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3400
S2     1.3350-1.3300
S3     1.3260

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3450
R2     1.3500
R3     1.3610-1.3700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.460

Buy
20-DMA   1.3332 Buy
50-DMA   1.3123 Buy
100-DMA   1.3003 Buy
200-DMA   1.2745 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.454 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0115 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY112.24/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.20/USD and settled the day down by 0.425% at JPY112.33/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (112.15), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.80-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 112.80-112.30 and 111.50-111.0-110.35. Long positions above 112.80-111.10 with targets of 113.60-114.00 and 114.50-115.00 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.30
S2     111.90
S3     111.50-111.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.80
R2     113.60-114.00
R3     114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.581 Buy
20-DMA   110.82 Buy
50-DMA   110.37 Buy
100-DMA   111.04 Buy
200-DMA   112.02 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   63.243 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.703 Sell

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