AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rose on Tuesday, taking heart from record closes on Wall Street and upbeat economic data that lifted U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, even as weaker oil prices took their toll on energy stocks. Markets in China and South Korea were closed for holidays. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI rose 1.9 percent as trading resumed following a public holiday on Monday, led by mainland banks and insurers after China's central bank cut reserve ratios over the weekend to encourage lending. Materials shares also gained after Beijing reported stronger-than-expected September factory activity. As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at a record low of 1.5 percent. The RBA said a stronger local currency would slow the economy and restrain price pressures. The euro eased 0.2 percent to $1.1709 EUR=, facing pressure from Spain's biggest constitutional crisis in decades, after Sunday's violence-marred independence referendum in Catalonia opened the door for its wealthiest region to move for secession as early as this week. Proposed U.S. tax code changes as well as the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump will appoint a more hawkish Fed Chair also gave the dollar a lift. A measure of U.S. manufacturing activity surged to a near 13-1/2-year high in September. Disruptions to the supply chains caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma resulted in factories taking longer to deliver goods and boosted raw material prices. The Institute for Supply Management index rose to 60.8 in September, from 58.8 in August, exceeding expectations for a reading of 58. U.S. construction spending also rebounded in August after two straight months of declines, boosted by increases in both private and public outlays. Due to the impact of the recent hurricanes, Northey said, “we’re going to get some data anomalies over the next few months, but as you step back and take a broader context around trends that exist right now, it is clear the U.S. economy is performing very well, and it will continue to be on an improving path.”
  • The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 2.7 percent annualized pace in the third quarter, based on the stronger-than-forecast rise on construction spending in August and a surprise acceleration in factory activity in September, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP Now forecast model showed on Monday. The latest estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product was faster than the 2.3 percent growth rate calculated on Sept. 29, the Atlanta Fed said.
  • The dollar struck a 1-1/2-month high on Tuesday as Treasury yields rose after a strong reading for U.S. manufacturing activity hardened expectations for U.S. interest rates to rise by the year-end. The Australian dollar slipped to its lowest in more than two months after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and gave a somewhat cautious assessment of the local economy. Debt yields and equities rose - Wall Street shares reached record highs - after a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity for September released on Monday showed a surge to a 13-1/2-year high. The euro also took a knock on Monday as Spain faced its biggest constitutional crisis in decades after Sunday's independence referendum in Catalonia. Still, some saw the dollar facing turbulence against the yen in the coming sessions as traders considered the implications of Japan's snap general election later in the month. Ishizuki at Daiwa Securities pointed out that one-month dollar/yen risk reversals showed dollar puts are more popular. Market participants try to hedge against currency risk and volatility through the use of risk reversals, in which "puts" give them the option to sell. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last week dissolved the parliament's lower house and called a snap election for Oct. 22. Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was initially expected to win the election with relative ease. An easy win, however, is looking less assured with popular Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike forging an alliance of opposition parties to challenge the LDP.
  • Oil prices fell on Tuesday, declining for a second day and sapping more strength from a third-quarter rally, amid signs that a global glut in crude may not be clearing as quickly as some had hoped. The U.S. benchmark posted a third quarter gain of around 12 percent, its strongest quarterly climb since the second quarter of 2016, but has now dropped nearly 5 percent from a six-month high reached on Thursday. Iraq said on Monday that exports rose slightly in September from its southern oilfields, while an earlier Reuters survey indicated that the OPEC overall boosted output. Oil prices climbed last week on tension in Iraqi Kurdistan after the region’s independence vote, with Turkey threatening to close a pipeline that brings oil from the region in northern Iraq to the Mediterranean. The recent rally had also been driven by signs that a three-year crude glut is easing, helped by a production cut deal among global producers led by OPEC. However, Middle Eastern oil producers are concerned the price rise will stir U.S. shale producers into more drilling and push prices lower again. Key OPEC producers consider a price above $60 as encouraging too much shale output. One bullish sign was a letter from Libya’s National Oil Company on Monday that declared force majeure on deliveries from Sharara, the country’s largest oilfield.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd October 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,279 1,288-1,294 1,300
Silver-XAG 16.70-17.00 17.50 18.00-18.35
Crude Oil 51.00 52.00 52.50-53.00
EURO/USD 1.1750 1.1800-1.1875 1.1930
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3350 1.3400 1.3450-1.3500
USD/JPY 113.00 113.60-114.00 114.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd October 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,263-1,252 1,243 1,230
Silver-XAG 16.35-16.00 15.60 15.30
Crude Oil 50.10-49.60 48.90 47.80
EURO/USD 1.1700-1.1660 1.1600 1.5555
GBP/USD 1.3260 1.3200-1.3130 1.3030
USD/JPY 112.80-112.30 111.90 111.50-111.10

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd October 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1280.03/oz and low of US$1269.48/oz. Gold was down by 0.666% at US$1270.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1267) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1300 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1263-1253 and 1243-1230. Buy above 1263-1243 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288-1294 and 1300-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,263-1,252
S2     1,243
S3     1,230
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,279
R2     1,288-1,294
R3     1,300

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.829

Buy
20-DMA   1308.18 Sell
50-DMA  

1295.08

Sell
100-DMA   1272.49 Buy
200-DMA   1249.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   6.722 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.169 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$16.71/oz and low of US$16.53/oz. Silver settled down by 0.361% at US$16.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (17.10), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.35-15.00 targeting 16.70-17.00-17.30 and 17.70-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.70 -18.35 with stop loss above 18.50; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.35-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.70-17.00
R2     17.50
R3     18.00-18.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.004 Buy
20-DMA   17.27 Sell
50-DMA   17.10 Sell
100-DMA   16.88 Sell
200-DMA   17.12 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   4.389 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.159 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$51.69/bbl, intraday low of US$50.05/bbl and settled down by 2.11% to close at US$50.54/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 51.00-53.00 with stop loss at 53.00; targeting and 50.10-49.60 and 48.90-47.80. Buy above 51.00-48.90 with risk daily closing below 48.90 and targeting 52.00-52.50 and 53.00-53.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     50.10-49.60
S2     48.90
S3     47.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     51.00
R2     52.00
R3     52.50-53.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.157 Sell
20-DMA   50.20 Buy
50-DMA   49.01 Buy
100-DMA   47.80 Buy
200-DMA   49.58 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   26.583 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.826 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1729/EUR, high of US$1.1814/EUR and settled the day down by 0.263% to close at US$1.1731/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1750-1.1930 targeting 1.1700-1.1660 and 1.1600-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2000. Buy above 1.1700-1.1555 with risk below 1.1550 targeting 1.1750-1.1825-1.1875 and 1.1950-1.1990.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1700-1.1660
S2     1.1600
S3     1.5555

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1750
R2     1.1800-1.1875
R3     1.1930

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   1.1889 Buy
20-DMA   1.1889 Buy
50-DMA   1.1844 Buy
100-DMA   1.1576 Buy
200-DMA   1.1135 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.44 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0014 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3255/GBP, high of US$1.3401/GBP and settled the day by down by 0.725% to close at US$1.3274/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3360-1.3500 with targets at 1.3270-1.3200 and 1.3130-1.3030. Buy above 1.3300-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.3200 targeting 1.3400-1.3450-1.3500 and 1.3610-1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3260
S2     1.3200-1.3130
S3     1.3030

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300-1.3350
R2     1.3400
R3     1.3450-1.3500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.992

Buy
20-DMA   1.3361 Buy
50-DMA   1.3132 Buy
100-DMA   1.3010 Buy
200-DMA   1.2755 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.667 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0789 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY112.43/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.05/USD and settled the day up by 0.088% at JPY112.74/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (112.15), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 112.80-112.30 and 111.50-111.0-110.35. Long positions above 112.80-111.10 with targets of 113.60-114.00 and 114.50-115.00 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.80-112.30
S2     111.90
S3     111.50-111.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00
R2     113.60-114.00
R3     114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.632 Buy
20-DMA   111.17 Buy
50-DMA   110.42 Buy
100-DMA   111.02 Buy
200-DMA   111.97 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   64.669 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.745 Sell

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