AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares were steady on Thursday, taking their cue from strong U.S. data though many markets failed to build on early gains in holiday-thinned trade and due to uncertainty about the impact of recent hurricanes on the U.S. economy. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing activity rose to 59.8 in September, its highest reading since August 2005, pointing to the resilience of the vast U.S. services sector despite disruption from two powerful hurricanes. The data came after a surge to 13-year high in the survey of manufacturers as well as car sales at 12-year high, both released earlier this week. But analysts also cautioned that the data reflected temporary demand stemming from repair and replacement spending in the aftermath of the hurricanes. Data from private payrolls processor ADP showed monthly hiring slowed to an 11-month low of 135K, again due partly to disruptions from hurricanes, although this was better than economists’ median forecast. Economists expect Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, one of the most closely watched pieces of economic data in financial markets, to show a similar slowdown. They estimate a payroll increase in September of 90,000, substantially lower than the average over the past year of around 175,000, though some say investors may need to pay attention to state data due on Oct. 20 to exclude the impact from hurricanes. U.S. President Donald Trump proposed a tax overhaul late last month but it remains to be seen whether the plan can get through Congress given the divisions among Republicans. Trump has promised to decide this month on a new chief for the Federal Reserve to replace Janet Yellen, whose term expires in February. High-rated bonds were affected by worries about Catalonia’s independence vote from Spain.
  • The dollar edged higher against other major currencies on Thursday, as the previous session's upbeat U.S. service sector data continued to support, while investors looked ahead to a number of speeches by Federal Reserve officials scheduled later in the day. The greenback remained support after the Institute of Supply Management reported on Wednesday that U.S. service sector activity expanded at its fastest rate in 12 years in September. The data came shortly after payrolls processor ADP said the U.S. private sector added 135K jobs last month, beating analyst's projections. But the greenback's gains were capped amid speculation the next Fed head could be less hawkish than expected continued to weigh. Fed Governor Jerome Powell and former governor Kevin Warsh were both interviewed at the White House last week to replace current Fed Chair Janet Yellen next February. The two men are seen as serious candidates, but Powell is considered as more dovish than Warsh, who has criticised the Fed's bond-buying programme in the past. Powell was scheduled to speak about the Treasury Markets Practices Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York later Thursday, while Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker was also set to deliver a speech in Texas. Spain's King Felipe VI accused Catalan secessionist leaders of shattering democratic principles and dividing Catalan society on Tuesday, while the head of Catalonia's government Carles Puigdemont said the region will declare independence in a matter of days. On a more positive note, another report showed that Australia's trade surplus widened to A$989,000 in August from A$808,000 in July, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated surplus of A$460,000. Analysts had expected the trade surplus to widen to only A$875,000 in August.
  • Oil prices were stable on Thursday on expectations that Saudi Arabia and Russia would extend production cuts, although record U.S. exports and the return of supply from a Libyan oilfield dragged on the market. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that a pledge by the OPEC and other producers, including Russia, to cut oil output to boost prices could be extended to the end of 2018, instead of expiring in March 2018. The statement came ahead of a visit by Saudi Arabia's King Salman to Moscow. The pact on cutting output by about 1.8 mn bpd took effect in January this year. Despite this, there were factors holding back crude prices. Sukrit Vijayakar, managing director of consultancy Trifecta, said that included the return of Libya's giant Sharara oilfield on Wednesday after an armed brigade forced a two-day shutdown. That came after the EIA said late on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil exports jumped to 1.98 mn bpd last week, surpassing the 1.5 mn bpd record set the previous week. The increase has been triggered by the wide discount in U.S. WTI prices against international Brent crude prices which makes U.S. oil exports attractive.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th October 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,279 1,288-1,294 1,300
Silver-XAG 16.70-17.00 17.50 18.00-18.35
Crude Oil 50.10-51.00 52.00 52.50-53.00
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1875 1.1930 1.2000
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3300 1.3400-1.3450 1.3400-1.3450
USD/JPY 113.00 113.60-114.00 114.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th October 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,273 1,266-1,252 1,243
Silver-XAG 16.35-16.00 15.60 15.30
Crude Oil 49.60-48.90 47.80 46.90
EURO/USD 1.1740 1.1700-1.1660 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3140 1.3020 1.2935
USD/JPY 112.30 111.90 111.50-111.10

Intra-Day Strategy (5th October 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1282.12/oz and low of US$1270.50/oz. Gold was up by 0.238% at US$1274.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1267) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1300 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1263-1253 and 1243-1230. Buy above 1263-1243 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288-1294 and 1300-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,273
S2     1,266-1,252
S3     1,243
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,279
R2     1,288-1,294
R3     1,300

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.442

Buy
20-DMA   1301.59 Sell
50-DMA  

1295.71

Sell
100-DMA   1272.92 Buy
200-DMA   1251.30 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.084 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.292 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$16.87/oz and low of US$16.52/oz. Silver settled down by 0.301% at US$16.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (17.10), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.35-15.00 targeting 16.70-17.00-17.30 and 17.70-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.70 -18.35 with stop loss above 18.50; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.35-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.70-17.00
R2     17.50
R3     18.00-18.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.778 Buy
20-DMA   17.14 Sell
50-DMA   17.10 Sell
100-DMA   16.88 Sell
200-DMA   17.13 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.669 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.159 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$50.65/bbl, intraday low of US$49.75/bbl and settled down by 0.518% to close at US$49.88/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 50.10-53.00 with stop loss at 53.00; targeting and 49.60-48.90 and 47.80-46.90. Buy above 49.60-46.90 with risk daily closing below 46.90 and targeting 50.10-51.00 and 52.00-52.50-53.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.60-48.90
S2     47.80
S3     46.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     50.10-51.00
R2     52.00
R3     52.50-53.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.678 Sell
20-DMA   50.26 Buy
50-DMA   49.04 Buy
100-DMA   47.80 Buy
200-DMA   49.54 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   4.441 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.564 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1734/EUR, high of US$1.1787/EUR and settled the day up by 0.136% to close at US$1.1757/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1800-1.2000 targeting 1.1750-1.1700-1.1660 and 1.1600-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2000. Buy above 1.1750-1.1555 with risk below 1.1550 targeting 1.1800-1.1875 and 1.1930-1.1990.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1740
S2     1.1700-1.1660
S3     1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800-1.1875
R2     1.1930
R3     1.2000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.406 Buy
20-DMA   1.1869 Buy
50-DMA   1.1847 Buy
100-DMA   1.1589 Buy
200-DMA   1.1148 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   40.137 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0029 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3232/GBP, high of US$1.3290/GBP and settled the day by up by 0.067% to close at US$1.3245/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3260-1.3500 with targets at 1.3200-1.3130 and 1.3020-1.2935. Buy above 1.3260-1.2935 with stop loss closing below 1.2900 targeting 1.3260-1.3300 and 1.3400-1.3450-1.3500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200-1.3140
S2     1.3020
S3     1.2935

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3260-1.3300
R2     1.3400-1.3450
R3     1.3400-1.3450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.748

Buy
20-DMA   1.3376 Buy
50-DMA   1.3137 Buy
100-DMA   1.3016 Buy
200-DMA   1.2765 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   6.981 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0047 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY112.31/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.93/USD and settled the day down by 0.0779% at JPY112.74/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (112.15), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 112.80-112.30 and 111.50-111.0-110.35. Long positions above 112.80-111.10 with targets of 113.60-114.00 and 114.50-115.00 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.30
S2     111.90
S3     111.50-111.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00
R2     113.60-114.00
R3     114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.460 Buy
20-DMA   111.33 Buy
50-DMA   110.45 Buy
100-DMA   111.04 Buy
200-DMA   111.95 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   60.358 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.715 Sell

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