AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks rose on Friday and the dollar hit a seven-week peak, riding on economic optimism ahead of a U.S. job report later in the day. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected, the trade deficit narrowing, and evidence of strong orders for core capital goods. The latest boost in U.S. economic optimism lifted Treasury yields and helped take the dollar index against a basket of major currencies to the seven-week high. U.S. data this week has been solid on the whole, with investor focus now turned to the closely-watched nonfarm payrolls report due at 1230 GMT. Of key interest to the financial markets was how hurricanes Harvey and Irma may have affected the labour market in September. Economists expect 90,000 new U.S. jobs were created in September, down from 156,000 in August, according to a Reuters poll. The pound was particularly vulnerable against the bullish dollar after a poorly-received keynote speech by British Prime Minister Theresa May deepened market doubts about her ability to govern effectively.
  • Most major currencies will hold on to their gains made in 2017 against the dollar over the coming year, according to a Reuters poll of currency strategists who were not entirely convinced of the U.S. administration’s ability to pass through tax cuts. A raft of robust data out of the United States and new general plans on tax reform from the White House sent the dollar .DXY to a seven-week high on Tuesday and up almost 3 percent last month. That was also partially reflected in predictions for dollar positioning at the end of October. Speculators’ net short bets on the dollar are at their highest since late September 2012, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The euro has gained ground - up almost 12 percent against the dollar - this year on solid economic momentum in the currency bloc and on expectations the European Central Bank will scale back its massive stimulus starting next year. The minutes of the ECB’s September policy meeting released on Thursday showed policymakers debated the trade-off between various options for extending its asset buying and a reduction. But policymakers also expressed concern and mentioned the potentially negative aspects of a strong euro and its impact on inflation at the meeting. Market expectations are that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will prevail in a snap election he called for Oct. 22, seeking a mandate to stick to his tough stance toward a volatile North Korea and rebalance the social security system.
  • Oil markets were cautious on Friday as traders monitored a tropical storm heading for the Gulf of Mexico and as China remained closed for a week-long public holiday. But the prospect of extended oil production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers led by Russia helped support prices. Activity was subdued due to the Golden Week holiday in China and because traders were monitoring tropical storm Nate, which has triggered U.S. Gulf production and refinery closures just weeks after several hurricanes pummeled the region. Traders said they were closing positions ahead of the expected arrival of the storm as they did not want to be caught with open trades over the weekend. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, one of the most important fuel handling facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, said on Friday that it had suspended vessel offloading operations. Storm Nate, which the U.S. National Hurricane Center said could intensify into a hurricane, is off the coast of Nicaragua, heading into a region of the Gulf populated by offshore oil platforms that pump more than 1.6 million barrels of crude per day (bpd), or about 17 percent of U.S. output. Phillips 66 (N:PSX) on Thursday night was shutting its 247,000 bpd Alliance refinery in Louisiana. Despite this, crude was not far off closing levels on Thursday, when prices rose by around 2 percent on the prospect of an extended production cut deal.
  • King Salman of Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de-facto leader, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday to discuss, among other things, oil policy. Saudi Arabia made no firm pledge to extend a deal between OPEC, Russia and other producers on cutting supplies but said it was "flexible" regarding suggestions to prolong the pact until the end of 2018. A deal to cut around 1.8 million bpd in production has been in place since January and is due to expire at end-March 2018. With the prospect of extended cuts, analysts were raising price forecasts.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
6th October 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,273-1,279 1,288 1,294-1,300
Silver-XAG 16.70-17.00 17.50 18.00-18.35
Crude Oil 51.00 52.00 52.50-53.00
EURO/USD 1.1700 1.1740 1.1800-1.1875
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3150 1.3200 1.3260-1.3300
USD/JPY 113.00 113.60-114.00 114.50113.60-114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
6th October 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,266-1,252 1,243 1,234
Silver-XAG 16.35-16.00 15.60 15.30
Crude Oil 50.10 49.60-48.90 47.80
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1610 1.1550 1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3015 1.2935 1.2840-1.2770
USD/JPY 112.30 111.90 111.50-111.10

Intra-Day Strategy (6th October 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1278.88/oz and low of US$1278.88/oz. Gold was down by 0.531% at US$1268.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1267) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1300 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1263-1253 and 1243-1230. Buy above 1263-1243 with risk below 1230, targeting 1279-1288-1294 and 1300-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,266-1,252
S2     1,243
S3     1,234
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,273-1,279
R2     1,288
R3     1,294-1,300

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.871

Buy
20-DMA   1297.32 Sell
50-DMA  

1295.55

Sell
100-DMA   1272.98 Buy
200-DMA   1251.90 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.120 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -9.544 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$16.72/oz and low of US$16.55/oz. Silver settled up by 0.120% at US$16.57/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (17.10), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.35-15.00 targeting 16.70-17.00-17.30 and 17.70-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.70 -18.35 with stop loss above 18.50; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.35-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.70-17.00
R2     17.50
R3     18.00-18.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.402 Buy
20-DMA   17.07 Sell
50-DMA   17.10 Sell
100-DMA   16.88 Sell
200-DMA   17.13 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.511 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.204 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$51.21/bbl, intraday low of US$49.83/bbl and settled up by 1.74% to close at US$50.74/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 51.00-53.00 with stop loss at 53.00; targeting and 50.10-49.60-48.90 and 47.80-46.90. Buy above 50.10-46.90 with risk daily closing below 46.90 and targeting 51.00-52.00 and 52.50-53.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     50.10
S2     49.60-48.90
S3     47.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     51.00
R2     52.00
R3     52.50-53.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.678 Sell
20-DMA   50.26 Buy
50-DMA   49.04 Buy
100-DMA   47.80 Buy
200-DMA   49.54 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   4.441 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.564 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1698/EUR, high of US$1.1778/EUR and settled the day down by 0.408% to close at US$1.1709/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1700-1.1875 targeting 1.1660-1.1610 and 1.1555-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2000. Buy above 1.1660-1.1500 with risk below 1.1500 targeting 1.1700-1.1740-1.1800 and 1.1875-1.1930.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1610
S2     1.1550
S3     1.1500

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1700
R2     1.1740
R3     1.1800-1.1875

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.276 Buy
20-DMA   1.1849 Buy
50-DMA   1.1845 Buy
100-DMA   1.1593 Buy
200-DMA   1.1154 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.626 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0038 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3106/GBP, high of US$1.3249/GBP and settled the day by down by 1.049% to close at US$1.3117/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3100-1.3300 with targets at 1.3020-1.2935 and 1.2840-1.2770. Buy above 1.3015-1.2770 with stop loss closing below 1.2750 targeting 1.3100-1.3150 and 1.3200-1.3260-1.3300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3015
S2     1.2935
S3     1.2840-1.2770

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3260-1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.319

Buy
20-DMA   1.3364 Buy
50-DMA   1.3134 Buy
100-DMA   1.3015 Buy
200-DMA   1.2768 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   4.304 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0016 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY112.40/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.91/USD and settled the day up by 0.053% at JPY112.80/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (112.15), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 112.80-112.30 and 111.50-111.0-110.35. Long positions above 112.80-111.10 with targets of 113.60-114.00 and 114.50-115.00 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.30
S2     111.90
S3     111.50-111.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00
R2     113.60-114.00
R3     114.50113.60-114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.460 Buy
20-DMA   111.33 Buy
50-DMA   110.45 Buy
100-DMA   111.04 Buy
200-DMA   111.95 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   60.358 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.715 Sell

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