AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rose on Tuesday, shrugging off modest losses on Wall Street, while expectations of another U.S. interest rate increase this year continued to underpin the dollar. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in a phone call on Monday that an escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula is unacceptable. Russia and China both called for restraint on North Korea on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned over the weekend that “only one thing will work” in dealing with Pyongyang, hinting that military action was on his mind. The perceived safe-haven yen typically rises when investors try to reduce their risk exposure because the currency is often used as a funding source to buy riskier, higher-yielding assets. Japan is also the world’s largest net creditor nation, and at times of uncertainty, traders assume Japanese investors’ repatriation from foreign countries will outweigh foreign investors’ selling of Japanese assets. The euro added 0.3 percent to $1.1773, after it got a lift on Monday from data showing German industrial output notched its biggest monthly increase in more than six years in August. Also helping the euro were comments from a European Central Bank Executive Board member, who called for the central bank to reduce its asset purchases next year. The ECB is due to decide on Oct. 26 whether to continue its bond buying in 2018.
  • The dollar was little changed against the yen on Tuesday, with the market wary of potential North Korean provocations, while the euro extended gains following upbeat German data and hawkish-sounding comments from a European Central Bank official. The dollar was hit late last week by a report that North Korea was preparing a long-range missile test. There were concerns that Pyongyang could mark the days leading to Tuesday, when it celebrates the founding of its ruling party, with some sort of provocation. The euro advanced following data showing German industrial output notched its biggest monthly increase in more than six years in August. A call from Sabine Lautenschlaeger, a member of the European Central Bank executive board, for the ECB to roll back asset purchases in 2018 also lifted the common currency. The New Zealand dollar was up 0.1 percent at $0.7069 to put a bit of distance between a four-month trough of $0.7052 touched the previous day after a final vote count in the country’s tight general election failed to identify a clear winner. Offshore Chinese yuan surged and touched 6.5790 per dollar, its strongest in more than two-weeks, after the central bank set a firmer-than-expected official fix on Tuesday. The move suggests that the authorities are trying to stabilize the currency ahead of next week’s key national leadership meeting. The pound nudged up 0.1 percent to $1.3157, having bounced overnight from a one-month low of $1.3027 as news of rising labor costs hardened expectations of higher interest rates, and after Prime Minister Theresa May vowed to ward off challenges to her leadership.
  • Oil prices were steady on Tuesday as OPEC said there were clear signs the market was rebalancing and as U.S. production remained offline following Hurricane Nate. Traders said prices were supported as the OPEC said oil markets were rebalancing fast after years of oversupply. OPEC has led an effort to cut output to end years of overproduction that created a huge supply overhang. Tighter market conditions are reflected in the shape of the Brent crude forward curve, which has flipped from contango - when future deliveries are priced higher than those for immediate sale - into backwardation, when it is more profitable to sell oil promptly than storing it for sale later. The OPEC-led production cuts started in January and are set to expire at the end of March 2018. There have been talks about extending the curbs, but no formal agreement has been reached. JP Morgan said that previous "concerns that OPEC compliance would fade into the fourth quarter now appear unfounded", and that "stronger than assumed economic growth offers the potential for tight market conditions to continue if OPEC extends the current deal for another nine months". The bank also said political disputes between the United States and Iran could drive oil prices higher. Short-term price support was also coming from the United States, where 85 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production, or 1.49 million barrels a day, was offline following Hurricane Nate, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement late on Monday. Oil companies evacuated staff from Gulf platforms and curtailed output ahead of the storm, which hit the region last weekend. Traders said they did not expect the disruptions to last long. OPEC's Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo on Tuesday called on U.S. shale oil producers to help curtail global oil supply, warning extraordinary measures might be needed next year to sustain the rebalanced market in the medium to long term. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries official's comments came during a speech delivered at a conference.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th October 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,288 1,294-1,300 1,321
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.50 18.00-18.35
Crude Oil 50.10-51.00 52.00 52.50-53.00
EURO/USD 1.1770 1.1825-1.1875 1.1925
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3260-1.3300 1.3360
USD/JPY 113.00 113.60-114.00 114.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th October 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,279-1,273 1,266 1,252-1,243
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 49.00 47.80-47.05 46.50
EURO/USD 1.1700 1.1660-1.1610 1.1550
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3100 1.3015 1.2935-1.2840
USD/JPY 112.30 111.90 111.50-111.10

Intra-Day Strategy (10th October 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1282.12/oz and low of US$1275.17/oz. Gold was up by 0.615% at US$1283.84/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1267) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1288-1320 keeping stop loss closing above 1320 and targeting 1279-1273 and 1263-1253-1243. Buy above 1279-1243 with risk below 1243, targeting 1288-1294 and 1300-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,279-1,273
S2     1,266
S3     1,252-1,243
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,288
R2     1,294-1,300
R3     1,321

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.643

Buy
20-DMA   1293.33 Sell
50-DMA  

1296.37

Sell
100-DMA   1273.66 Buy
200-DMA   1252.25 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.150 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.336 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$16.97/oz and low of US$16.75/oz. Silver settled down by 1.134% at US$16.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (17.10), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 16.70-17.00-17.30 and 17.70-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.70 -18.35 with stop loss above 18.50; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.50
R3     18.00-18.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.955 Buy
20-DMA   16.99 Sell
50-DMA   17.11 Sell
100-DMA   16.88 Sell
200-DMA   17.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   50.955 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.133 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$49.77/bbl, intraday low of US$49.11/bbl and settled up by 0.609% to close at US$49.55/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 50.10-53.00 with stop loss at 53.00; targeting and 49.00- 47.80 and 47.05-46.50. Buy above 49.00-46.50 with risk daily closing below 46.50 and targeting 50.10-51.00 and 52.00-52.50-53.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.00
S2     47.80-47.05
S3     46.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     50.10-51.00
R2     52.00
R3     52.50-53.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.371 Sell
20-DMA   50.53 Buy
50-DMA   49.05 Buy
100-DMA   47.76 Buy
200-DMA   49.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.739 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.289 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.7188/EUR, high of US$1.1755/EUR and settled the day up by 0.127% to close at US$1.1739/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1770-1.1925 targeting 1.1700-1.1660-1.1610 and 1.1555-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1925. Buy above 1.1700-1.1550 with risk below 1.1500 targeting 1.1770-1.1825 and 1.1875-1.1930.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1700
S2     1.1660-1.1610
S3     1.1550

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1770
R2     1.1825-1.1875
R3     1.1925

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.841 Buy
20-DMA   1.1831 Buy
50-DMA   1.1843 Buy
100-DMA   1.1605 Buy
200-DMA   1.1167 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   45.812 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0034 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3074/GBP, high of US$1.3182/GBP and settled the day by up by 0.366% to close at US$1.3139/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3200-1.3360 with targets at 1.3150-1.3100-1.3020 and 1.2935-1.2840. Buy above 1.3150-1.2840 with stop loss closing below 1.2800 targeting 1.3200-1.3260 and 1.3300-1.3360.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3150-1.3100
S2     1.3015
S3     1.2935-1.2840

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200
R2     1.3260-1.3300
R3     1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.357

Buy
20-DMA   1.3357 Buy
50-DMA   1.3131 Buy
100-DMA   1.3018 Buy
200-DMA   1.2774 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.274 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0024 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY112.32/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.73/USD and settled the day up by 0.079% at JPY112.67/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (112.15), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 112.80-112.30 and 111.50-111.0-110.35. Long positions above 112.80-111.10 with targets of 113.60-114.00 and 114.50-115.00 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.30
S2     111.90
S3     111.50-111.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00
R2     113.60-114.00
R3     114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.846 Buy
20-DMA   111.96 Buy
50-DMA   110.57 Buy
100-DMA   111.08 Buy
200-DMA   111.89 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   37.158 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.672 Sell

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