AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares jumped to the highest in a decade on Wednesday as Wall Street scaled all-time highs, while the dollar loitered around two-week lows on worries President Donald Trump’s tax plan could stall. The euro traded around a 10-day peak after Catalonia’s leader suspended plans to leave Spain, easing near-term concerns about euro zone stability. Sentiment was boosted after the International Monetary Fund upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2017 and 2018, driven by a pickup in trade, investment, and consumer confidence. In currency markets, the dollar held around a two-week trough as U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating war of words with Senator Bob Corker raised concerns about the administration’s ability to pass promised reforms. The greenback was also under pressure amid ongoing uncertainty over the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with the predictions market site, PredictIt, favoring Fed governor Jerome Powell as the most likely candidate. While Powell is regarded as more hawkish than incumbent Janet Yellen, whose term expires in February, analysts say he might be less aggressive in winding back stimulus than Kevin Warsh, another possible candidate for the role. Investors will keep an eye on the minutes of the Fed’s September meeting due later in the day, which might help bolster views of a December rate hike.
  • Speculation that President Donald Trump's tax overhaul plan would stall kept the dollar below a recent 10-week peak against major currencies on Wednesday, and the euro held near a 12-day high as political tensions over Catalonia receded slightly. The euro's rally strengthened after Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont on Tuesday proclaimed the region's independence from Spain but said the effects would be postponed to allow for talks, averting an immediate crisis. Strong economic data out of Germany boosted confidence in the euro, as robust industrial output numbers posted on Monday were followed by figures on Tuesday showing exports surged in August. President Trump's public feud with Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, an influential fellow Republican, has raised concern that his push for a tax-code overhaul could be harmed. Investors were awaiting the release of minutes of the September Federal Reserve policy meeting later in the session. The Fed had signaled at the meeting that it may raise interest rates for a third time this year even with inflation staying below its 2 percent goal. But with the Fed funds futures almost fully pricing in the likelihood of a rate hike in December and the recent spike in Treasury yields losing momentum, analysts said fresh factors could be needed for the dollar to renew its advance. The pound was nearly flat at $1.3202. Sterling had risen 0.5 percent overnight after stronger-than-expected British industry data cemented expectations that the Bank of England would raise rates for the first time in more than a decade next month.
  • Gold prices eased in Asia on Wednesday ahead of minutes from the Fed due later in the day and expected to show a largely hawkish stance on the need for a December hike and into next year. Gold’s bullish start to the week continued as safe-haven demand remained elevated amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty on the Korean Peninsula while dollar weakness supported an uptick in demand for the precious metal. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – A dip in the dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of foreign currency and thus, increases demand.Despite the uptick in gold recent data points toward possible weakness as net bullish bets on gold fell to 203,900, according to a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
  • Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Wednesday ahead of industry estimates of U.S. inventories as refineries in Texas recover from hurricane-related shutdowns. Later Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) is to release its estimates of crude and refined product inventories at the end of last week, followed by official data on Thursday from the EIA. The API and EIA figures often diverge. Crude oil inventories are seen down by 1.8 million barrels, while distillates are seen down by 2.375 million barrels and gasoline stocks expected to show a 1.025 million barrels decline. Overnight, crude oil prices settled sharply higher on Tuesday after de facto Opec leader Saudi Arabia vowed to reduce monthly crude exports amid expectations that market rebalancing is underway. Crude oil prices had their best day in two weeks as sentiment turned positive after Saudi Arabia pledged to cut its November crude oil exports by 7% or 560,000 barrels a day, compared with the same period last year in order to strengthen the market rebalancing process. The gap between supply and demand in oil markets is expected to narrow further in the coming months amid a surge in global demand growth which has lifted oil prices above $50 a barrel. OPEC’s Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo on Tuesday sought to allay investor fears, calling on U.S. shale producers to take responsibility and help cut global excess supplies in the oil market.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th October 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,288 1,294-1,300 1,321
Silver-XAG 17.20 17.50 18.00-18.35
Crude Oil 51.20 52.00 52.50-53.00
EURO/USD 1.1825-1.1875 1.1925 1.1981
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3260-1.3300 1.3360
USD/JPY 113.00 113.60-114.00 114.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th October 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,279-1,273 1,266 1,252-1,243
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 50.10 49.00 47.80-47.05
EURO/USD 1.1770 1.1700 1.1660-1.1610
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3100 1.3015 1.2935-1.2840
USD/JPY 112.30 111.90 111.50-111.10

Intra-Day Strategy (11th October 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1294.12/oz and low of US$1282.02/oz. Gold was up by 0.265% at US$1287.62/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1267) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1288-1320 keeping stop loss closing above 1320 and targeting 1279-1273 and 1263-1253-1243. Buy above 1279-1243 with risk below 1243, targeting 1288-1294 and 1300-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,279-1,273
S2     1,266
S3     1,252-1,243
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,288
R2     1,294-1,300
R3     1,321

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.643

Buy
20-DMA   1293.33 Sell
50-DMA  

1296.37

Sell
100-DMA   1273.66 Buy
200-DMA   1252.25 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.150 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.336 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$17.23/oz and low of US$16.91/oz. Silver settled up by 0.885% at US$17.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (17.10), breakage above will lead to 17.80-18.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 16.70-17.00-17.30 and 17.70-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.70 -18.35 with stop loss above 18.50; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.20
R2     17.50
R3     18.00-18.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.955 Buy
20-DMA   16.99 Sell
50-DMA   17.11 Sell
100-DMA   16.88 Sell
200-DMA   17.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   50.955 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.133 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$51.04/bbl, intraday low of US$49.52/bbl and settled up by 2.84% to close at US$50.93/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 51.20-53.00 with stop loss at 53.00; targeting and 50.10-49.00- 47.80 and 47.05-46.50. Buy above 50.10-46.50 with risk daily closing below 46.50 and targeting 51.00- 52.00 and 52.50-53.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     50.10
S2     49.00
S3     47.80-47.05

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     51.20
R2     52.00
R3     52.50-53.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   5.810 Sell
20-DMA   50.68 Buy
50-DMA   49.11 Buy
100-DMA   47.77 Buy
200-DMA   49.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   67.449 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.418 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.738/EUR, high of US$1.1824/EUR and settled the day up by 0.579% to close at US$1.1807/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1825-1.1981 targeting 1.1770-1.1700-1.1660 and 1.1610-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1925. Buy above 1.1770-1.1500 with risk below 1.1500 targeting 1.1825-1.1875 and 1.1930-1.1980.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1770
S2     1.1700
S3     1.1660-1.1610

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1825-1.1875
R2     1.1925
R3     1.1981

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.708 Buy
20-DMA   1.1830 Buy
50-DMA   1.1843 Buy
100-DMA   1.1611 Buy
200-DMA   1.1174 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.488 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0026 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3130/GBP, high of US$1.3224/GBP and settled the day by up by 0.464% to close at US$1.3201/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3200-1.3360 with targets at 1.3150-1.3100-1.3020 and 1.2935-1.2840. Buy above 1.3150-1.2840 with stop loss closing below 1.2800 targeting 1.3200-1.3260 and 1.3300-1.3360.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3150-1.3100
S2     1.3015
S3     1.2935-1.2840

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200
R2     1.3260-1.3300
R3     1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.646

Buy
20-DMA   1.3359 Buy
50-DMA   1.3126 Buy
100-DMA   1.3019 Buy
200-DMA   1.2777 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.269 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0004 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.98/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.83/USD and settled the day down by 0.213% at JPY112.43 /USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (112.15), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 112.80-112.30 and 111.50-111.0-110.35. Long positions above 112.80-111.10 with targets of 113.60-114.00 and 114.50-115.00 with stop below 111.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.30
S2     111.90
S3     111.50-111.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00
R2     113.60-114.00
R3     114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.846 Buy
20-DMA   111.96 Buy
50-DMA   110.57 Buy
100-DMA   111.08 Buy
200-DMA   111.89 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   37.158 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.672 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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