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  • The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last quoted down 0.02% to 92.92. In China, prices data is due with CPI for September seen up 0.4% on month and up 1.6% on year, while PPI is expected to post a 6.3% gain. This week, investors will be looking at U.S. housing data to assess the economic impact of the hurricanes which hit the southern U.S. last month. Thursday’s data on third quarter Chinese growth will be closely watched for insight into the health of the world’s second largest economy. Tuesday’s UK inflation data will also be in focus amid speculation over a possible rate hike by the Bank of England as soon as next month. Last week, the dollar fluctuated against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday after mixed consumer inflation data clouded the outlook for another rate increase by the Federal Reserve in the coming months. Consumer prices rose 0.5% last month after advancing 0.4% in August the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists had forecast a 0.6% increase. It was the largest increase in eight months, but was mainly driven by soaring gasoline prices after hurricanes hit the southern U.S. Underlying inflation remained subdued. The report came after the minutes of the Fed's September meeting published on Wednesday showed "many participants expressed concern that the low inflation readings this year might reflect not only transitory factors, but also the influence of developments that could prove more persistent." The data tempered expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates in December for a third time this year. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the euro zone still requires substantial monetary stimulus as inflation remains muted. Sterling gained ground amid hopes that Britain could be offered a two-year Brexit transition deal.
  • The U.S economy remains strong and the strength of the labor market calls for continued gradual increases in interest rates despite subdued inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Sunday. “We will be paying close attention to the inflation data in the months ahead,” Yellen said in prepared remarks at an international banking seminar in Washington. “My best guess is that these soft readings will not persist.” Yellen also said she expected the U.S. economy to exceed its long-term trend during the second half of the year and repeated the impact of recent hurricanes on the economy should be temporary. Minutes from the meeting, released last Wednesday, showed policymakers had a broad debate about recent soft inflation and the impact on interest rates if it fails to rebound. However, Yellen and some other key policymakers have also made plain they expect to continue to gradually raise interest rates given the strength of the overall economy and continued tightening of the labor market. Fed officials largely shrugged off a weak jobs report for September and pinned the decline in employment on Hurricanes Harvey and Irma temporarily displacing workers. In her speech, Yellen said the most recent wage gains contained in the September jobs report were encouraging and that she expected the central bank to raise interest rates further. The central bank has raised interest rates four times in its tightening cycle which began in late 2015. The Fed currently predicts one more rate rise this year and three the next.
  • Oil markets opened up strong into the new week, with Brent crude up by one percent as concerns over renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran drove prices up. A falling U.S. rig count also supported prices there. Traders said that concerns over renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran were pushing prices up. U.S. President Donald Trump struck a blow against the 2015 Iran nuclear deal on Friday, defying both U.S. allies and adversaries by refusing to formally certify that Tehran is complying with the accord even though international inspectors say it is. Under U.S. law, the president must certify every 90 days to Congress that Iran is complying with the deal. The U.S. Congress will now have 60 days to decide whether to reimpose economic sanctions on Tehran that were lifted under the pact. During the previous round of sanctions against Iran, some 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil supplies were cut off global markets. While analysts said they did not expect renewed sanctions to have such a big impact again, especially as the United States would likely act alone, they did warn that such a move would be disruptive. Within the United States, crude prices were also up as drillers cut back the number of rigs tapping new production. Drillers cut five oil rigs in the week to Oct. 13, bringing the total count up to 743, the lowest since early June, General Electric Co's (N:GE) Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report late on Friday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th October 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,312-1,321 1,329 1,335
Silver-XAG 17.50 18.00-18.35 18.60
Crude Oil 52.00 52.50-53.00 53.70
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1875 1.1925 1.1981
GBP/USD 1.3300 1.3360-1.3400 1.3450
USD/JPY 112.30-113.00 113.60 114.50114.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th October 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,294-1,288 1,279 1,273-1,266
Silver-XAG 17.20 16.70 16.35-16.00
Crude Oil 51.50-50.90 50.10 49.00-47.80
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1770 1.1700 1.1660-1.1610
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3200 1.3150 1.3100-1.3015
USD/JPY 111.50-111.10 110.70 109.80

Intra-Day Strategy (16th October 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1303.66/oz and low of US$1290.85/oz. Gold was up by 0.790% at US$1303.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1267) and breakage below will call for 1234-1224. MACD is below zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1300-1329 keeping stop loss closing above 1329 and targeting 1294-1288 and 1279-1273-1263. Buy above 1294-1279 with risk below 1279, targeting 1300-1311 and 1320-1329.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,294-1,288
S2     1,279
S3     1,273-1,266
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,312-1,321
R2     1,329
R3     1,335

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.868

Buy
20-DMA   1288.83 Sell
50-DMA  

1298.15

Sell
100-DMA   1274.68 Buy
200-DMA   1255.16 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.776 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.891 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.39/oz and low of US$17.16/oz. Silver settled up by 0.987% at US$17.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.20-15.00 targeting 17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.50-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 17.20-16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.20
S2     16.70
S3     16.35-16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.50
R2     18.00-18.35
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.161 Buy
20-DMA   16.94 Buy
50-DMA   17.18 Buy
100-DMA   16.88 Buy
200-DMA   17.16 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   96.152 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.036 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$51.70/bbl, intraday low of US$50.67/bbl and settled up by 1.301% to close at US$51.39/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 52.00-53.70 with stop loss at 53.70; targeting and 51.50-50.90-50.10 and 49.00- 47.80. Buy above 51.50-47.80 with risk daily closing below 47.80 and targeting 52.00- 52.50 and 53.00-53.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     51.50-50.90
S2     50.10
S3     49.00-47.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.00
R2     52.50-53.00
R3     53.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.826 Sell
20-DMA   50.88 Buy
50-DMA   49.23 Buy
100-DMA   47.83 Buy
200-DMA   49.45 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   85.190 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1874/EUR, high of US$1.1804/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0591% to close at US$1.1822/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1825-1.1981 targeting 1.1770-1.1700-1.1660 and 1.1610-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1925. Buy above 1.1770-1.1500 with risk below 1.1500 targeting 1.1825-1.1875 and 1.1930-1.1980.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1770
S2     1.1700
S3     1.1660-1.1610

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1875
R2     1.1925
R3     1.1981

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.969 Buy
20-DMA   1.1822 Buy
50-DMA   1.1844 Buy
100-DMA   1.1624 Buy
200-DMA   1.1187 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.424 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0015 1.3260-1.3200 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3246/GBP, high of US$1.3336/GBP and settled the day by up by 0.203% to close at US$1.3287/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3300-1.3450 with targets at 1.3260-1.3200 and 1.3150-1.3100-1.3020. Buy above 1.3260-1.3015 with stop loss closing below 1.3000 targeting 1.3300-1.3360 and 1.3400-1.3450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3260-1.3200
S2     1.3150
S3     1.3100-1.3015

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300
R2     1.3360-1.3400
R3     1.3450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.443

Buy
20-DMA   1.3381 Buy
50-DMA   1.3140 Buy
100-DMA   1.3030 Buy
200-DMA   1.2791 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.644 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0004 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.67/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.30/USD and settled the day down by 0.427% at JPY111.79/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

Technical in Focus: In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (112.15), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.30-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 111.50-111.0-110.70 and 110.35-109.80. Long positions above 111.50-109.80 with targets of 112.30-113.00-113.60 and 114.00-114.50 with stop below 109.80

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-111.10
S2     110.70
S3     109.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.30-113.00
R2     113.60
R3     114.50114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.840 Buy
20-DMA   112.33 Buy
50-DMA   110.72 Buy
100-DMA   111.11 Buy
200-DMA   111.79 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   22.570 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.457 Sell

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