AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares held within striking distance of recent decade highs on Tuesday even as Wall Street fell from record levels, while currencies kept to narrow ranges ahead of key economic events. Investors are closely watching China and the 19th Communist Party Congress, which winds up on Tuesday and at which President Xi Jinping is expected to release the composition of the Standing Committee - the apex of power in the country. Madrid took the unprecedented step of firing the government of Catalonia on Saturday in a last resort to thwart its push for independence. Catalan leaders called for civil disobedience in response. In Germany, the far-right Alternative (AfD) party is set to clash with other parties over its nomination for a senior parliamentary post when the Bundestag meets on Tuesday. The political tensions have weighed on the euro EUR= which hovered near two-week lows at $1.1752. The market is on edge ahead of a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday where it is expected to announce some form of policy tapering. Investors were also biting their nails as suspense builds over who might be the next chair of Federal Reserve after Janet Yellen’s term expires in February. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated an announcement is expected “very shortly.” The market is betting on Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell as the likely choice while Trump is also weighing on Stanford University economist John Taylor and current Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.
  • The dollar edged down on Tuesday as attention turned to who would be the next head of the U.S. central bank. U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday he is “very, very close” to deciding who should chair the Federal Reserve after interviewing five candidates for the position. These include current Fed Chair Janet Yellen, whose term expires in February, as well as Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Stanford University economist John Taylor, Trump’s chief economic advisor Gary Cohn, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Appointment of a more hawkish candidate would give the dollar a lift. Investors are also following U.S. tax reform developments. The Senate’s approval of a budget resolution on Friday raised hopes that Trump’s tax plans would move forward this year. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s coalition scored a decisive victory, reassuring investors that his “Abenomics” economic reforms would continue, including the Bank of Japan’s yen-weakening easy monetary policy. The ECB is expected to signal that it will take small steps away from its ultra-easy monetary policy stance.
  • Gold prices were roughly unchanged on Monday as dollar strength continued to weigh on upside momentum in the precious metal. In what was a quiet day for top-tier economic data, gold prices came under pressure on signs that sentiment on the dollar is turning positive after data showed traders continued to unwind their bearish bets on the greenback. Speculators pared net bearish bets on the dollar to their lowest level in more than a month, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. The precious metal has struggled to pare losses since falling below a key price level of $1300 amid signs of progress on tax reform and growing expectations that the U.S. central bank will hike rates later this year.
  • Oil prices inched up on Tuesday, supported by declining exports from southern Iraq. Oil exports from southern Iraq have fallen by 110,000 barrels per day this month, according to shipping data and an industry source, adding to the drop in flows caused by a shortfall from the northern Kirkuk fields when Iraqi forces retook control from Kurdish fighters who had been there since 2014. The drop in northern Iraqi shipments has supported global oil prices in recent days. But southern exports, the outlet for most of the country's crude, have been stable in recent months, making the decline unexpected. Crude oil exports through the Iraqi Kurdistan controlled-pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan rose 13 percent to 288,000 bpd on Monday afternoon, less than half the normal levels, a shipping source told Reuters. U.S. crude inventories likely fell by 2.5 million barrels last week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles also probably fell by at least 1.5 million barrels, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday ahead of data by the Industry group the American Petroleum Institute later in the day. Expectations of an increase in output has failed, however, to weigh on sentiment as data showed traders increased their bullish bets on crude oil futures last week. Net bullish bets on Crude Oil rose to 429,500, according to a report from the CFTC on Friday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th October 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,288 1,300 1,312-1,321
Silver-XAG 17.10 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 52.00-53.00 53.70 54.60
EURO/USD 1.1800 1.1850-1.1875 1.1925
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3300 1.3460 1.3500
USD/JPY 113.60 114.00-114.50 115.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th October 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,279 1,273-1,266 1,260
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 51.50 50.90 50.10-49.00
EURO/USD 1.1750 1.1700 1.1660-1.1610
GBP/USD 1.3190-1.3150 1.3100 1.3030-1.2950
USD/JPY 113.00-112.30 111.50 111.00

Intra-Day Strategy (24th October 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1283.21/oz and low of US$1272.45/oz. Gold was up by 0.1813% at US$1281.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1300) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1288-1321 keeping stop loss closing above 1321 and targeting 1279-1273-1268 and 1263-1251. Buy above 1279-1251 with risk below 1251, targeting 1288-1300 and 1311-1320.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,279
S2     1,273-1,266
S3     1,260
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,288
R2     1,300
R3     1,312-1,321

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.159

Buy
20-DMA   1283.32 Sell
50-DMA  

1299.71

Sell
100-DMA   1275.54 Buy
200-DMA   1258.53 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.751 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -4.112 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$17.09/oz and low of US$16.84/oz. Silver settled up by 0.412% at US$17.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.10-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.10-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.10
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.366 Buy
20-DMA   16.93 Buy
50-DMA   17.20 Buy
100-DMA   16.85 Buy
200-DMA   17.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.179 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.013 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$52.27/bbl, intraday low of US$51.66/bbl and settled down by 0.403% to close at US$51.83/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 52.0-54.60 with stop loss at 54.60; targeting and 51.50-50.90-50.10 and 49.00-48.40. Buy above 51.50-49.00 with risk daily closing below 49.00 and targeting 52.00-52.50 and 53.00-53.70-54.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     51.50
S2     50.90
S3     50.10-49.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.00-53.00
R2     53.70
R3     54.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.107 Sell
20-DMA   51.16 Buy
50-DMA   49.65 Buy
100-DMA   48.05 Buy
200-DMA   49.44 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   61.867 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.638 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1724/EUR, high of US$1.1770/EUR and settled the day down by 0.136% to close at US$1.1747/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1800-1.1925 targeting 1.1750-1.1700-1.1660 and 1.1610-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1925. Buy above 1.1750-1.1610 with risk below 1.1610 targeting 1.1800-1.1875 and 1.1930-1.1980.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750
S2     1.1700
S3     1.1660-1.1610

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800
R2     1.1850-1.1875
R3     1.1925

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.631 Buy
20-DMA   1.1780 Buy
50-DMA   1.1846 Buy
100-DMA   1.1658 Buy
200-DMA   1.1223 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   52.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0013 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3157/GBP, high of US$1.3226/GBP and settled the day by up by 0.083% to close at US$1.3195/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3260-1.3500 with targets at 1.3190-1.3150-1.3100 and 1.302- 1.2950. Buy above 1.3190-1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2950 targeting 1.3260-1.3300 and 1.3360-1.3450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3190-1.3150
S2     1.3100
S3     1.3030-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3260-1.3300
R2     1.3460
R3     1.3500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.754

Buy
20-DMA   1.3233 Buy
50-DMA   1.3170 Buy
100-DMA   1.3052 Buy
200-DMA   1.2826 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0014 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY113.23/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.09/USD and settled the day down by 0.360% at JPY113.42/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.60-115.60 with risk above 115.60 targeting 113.00-112.30-111.50 and 111.0-110.70. Long positions above 113.00-111.00 with targets of 113.60-114.00-114.60 and 115.00-115.60 with stop below 111.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00-112.30
S2     111.50
S3     111.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.60
R2     114.00-114.50
R3     115.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.154 Buy
20-DMA   112.65 Buy
50-DMA   111.12 Buy
100-DMA   111.27 Buy
200-DMA   111.73 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   75.420 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.4944 Sell

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