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Daily Market Lookup

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index closed higher on Tuesday, driven by solid earnings from industrial companies, while the dollar index was little changed after reports of Republican senators’ support for John Taylor as Federal Reserve chair. The world’s largest construction and mining equipment maker, Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N), beat third-quarter profit and sales estimates and raised its full-year forecasts. The Peoria, Illinois company expects revenue in its construction business to surge about 20 percent and its mining business to jump 30 percent. The company’s stock gained 5.0 percent. European shares ended mixed at their close on Tuesday in anticipation of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting.
  • The dollar held firm on Tuesday against a basket of currencies as a report that John Taylor has support from a group of Republican Senators to be Federal Reserve chief offset news that might hamper the passage of a tax-cut plan. The New Zealand dollar was the biggest mover among G10 currencies, declining to a five-month low after the incoming Labour-led coalition government said it plans to review and reform the Central Bank Act to include employment, alongside inflation, as a dual target. In addition to Taylor, Trump’s candidates for Fed chief include current Fed Chair Janet Yellen, whose term expires in February, as well as Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Trump’s chief economic advisor Gary Cohn, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Optimism for a tax overhaul slipped following a CNBC report citing an aide of Senate leader Mitch McConnell that three GOP Senators may not back the Republican tax bill. The outlook for the tax bill grew dimmer after Republican Senator Jeff Flake, a critic of Trump, said he would not seek re-election in 2018. This stoked worries among traders of even less support for a tax-cut plan, analysts said The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.1761 and rose 0.5 percent to 133.96 yen before Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting. Traders expect the ECB to signal a gradual removal of monetary stimulus as euro zone economic growth has improved.
  • Crude oil prices settled higher on Tuesday as Saudi Arabia vowed to end the glut in supply while data expected to show crude oil supplies fell for the fifth-straight week lifted sentiment. In what was a volatile day of trade, traders weighed the prospect of an extension to the supply-cut agreement after Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said Saudi Arabia is willing to “do whatever it takes” to rein in excess supplies. "When we get closer to that (five-year average) we will decide how we smoothly exit the current arrangement, maybe go to a different arrangement to keep supply and demand closely balanced so we don't have a return to higher inventories," the minister, Khalid al-Falih, told Reuters. In May, Opec producers agreed to extend production cuts for a period of nine months until March, but stuck to production cuts of 1.2 million bpd agreed in November last year. The ongoing fluctuation of output in Iraq, meanwhile, continued to concern investors as crude supplies through Iraq's northern pipeline to Ceyhan in Turkey rose further. Pumping along the pipeline rose to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Tuesday, Reuters reported, citing a shipping source. The uptick in political tensions in Northern Iraq follows conflict between Iraqi and Kurdish forces last week, as Kurdish forces retreated from Northern parts of Iraq, ceding control of two major oilfields. In the U.S., traders turned attention to inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday as well as a further report from EIA on Wednesday expected to show a decrease in domestic crude inventories for the fifth-straight week.Crude oil inventories in the U.S. rose by 519,000 barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday, while gasoline supplies fell by 5.753 million barrels and distillate stocks dropped 4.949 million barrels. The estimates will be to be followed on Wednesday by official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The API and EIA figures often diverge. Analysts expected a 2.5 million barrels drop in crude stocks and a 1.9 million barrels decrease in distillates and gasoline inventories off by 1.9 million barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th October 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,279-1,288 1,300 1,312-1,321
Silver-XAG 17.10 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 53.00-53.75 54.60 55.10
EURO/USD 1.1800 1.1850-1.1875 1.1925
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3190 1.3260 1.3300-1.3360
USD/JPY 114.00-114.50 115.00 115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th October 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,273-1,266 1,260 1,252
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 52.00-51.50 50.90 50.10-49.00
EURO/USD 1.1750 1.1700 1.1660-1.1610
GBP/USD 1.3100 1.3030-1.2950 1.2900
USD/JPY 113.60 113.00-112.30 111.50

Intra-Day Strategy (25th October 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1283.54/oz and low of US$1273.60/oz. Gold was down by 0.414% at US$1276.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1300) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1300 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1273-1268 and 1263-1251. Buy above 1273-1251 with risk below 1251, targeting 1279-1288-1300 and 1311-1320.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,273-1,266
S2     1,260
S3     1,252
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,279-1,288
R2     1,300
R3     1,312-1,321

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.598

Buy
20-DMA   1282.66 Sell
50-DMA  

1299.44

Sell
100-DMA   1275.36 Buy
200-DMA   1258.79 42.560 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.560 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -4.501 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$17.12/oz and low of US$16.86/oz. Silver settled down by 0.645% at US$16.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.10-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.10-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.10
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.606 Buy
20-DMA   16.93 Buy
50-DMA   17.19 Buy
100-DMA   16.85 Buy
200-DMA   17.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   28.426 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.025 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$52.60/bbl, intraday low of US$51.53/bbl and settled up by 1.253% to close at US$52.51/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 53.00-55.10 with stop loss at 55.10; targeting and 52.00-51.50 and 50.90-50.10-49.00. Buy above 52.00-49.00 with risk daily closing below 49.00 and targeting 52.50-53.00-53.70 and 54.60-55.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.00-51.50
S2     50.90
S3     50.10-49.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.00-53.75
R2     54.60
R3     55.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.322 Sell
20-DMA   51.21 Buy
50-DMA   49.77 Buy
100-DMA   48.13 Buy
200-DMA   49.44 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   81.853 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.669 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1742/EUR, high of US$1.1792/EUR and settled the day up by 0.110% to close at US$1.1760/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1800-1.1925 targeting 1.1750-1.1700-1.1660 and 1.1610-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1925. Buy above 1.1750-1.1610 with risk below 1.1610 targeting 1.1800-1.1875 and 1.1930-1.1980.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750
S2     1.1700
S3     1.1660-1.1610

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800
R2     1.1850-1.1875
R3     1.1925

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.631 Buy
20-DMA   1.1780 Buy
50-DMA   1.1846 Buy
100-DMA   1.1658 Buy
200-DMA   1.1223 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   52.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0013 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3112/GBP, high of US$1.3226/GBP and settled the day by down by 0.485% to close at US$1.3131/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3150-1.3360 with targets at 1.3100-1.3020 and 1.2950-1.2900. Buy above 1.3100-1.2900 with stop loss closing below 1.2900 targeting 1.3150-1.3190 and 1.3260-1.3300-1.3360.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100
S2     1.3030-1.2950
S3     1.2900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3150-1.3190
R2     1.3260
R3     1.3300-1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.571

Buy
20-DMA   1.3216 Buy
50-DMA   1.3174 Buy
100-DMA   1.3053 Buy
200-DMA   1.2830 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.850 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0023 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.24/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.02/USD and settled the day up by 0.396% at JPY113.87/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-115.60 with risk above 115.60 targeting 113.60-113.00-112.30 and 111.50-111.0. Long positions above 113.00-111.00 with targets of 113.60-114.00-114.60 and 115.00-115.60 with stop below 111.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.60
S2     113.00-112.30
S3     111.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00-114.50
R2     115.00
R3     115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.601 Buy
20-DMA   112.73 Buy
50-DMA   111.21 Buy
100-DMA   111.31 Buy
200-DMA   111.73 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   80.017 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.571 Sell

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