AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was weaker against the yen on Thursday in early Asia in a light regional data day ahead. Overnight, the dollar fell against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday after data showing new home sales hit a nearly 10-year high was offset by strong gains in sterling amid bullish UK economic growth. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 1.3% last month, beating forecast of a 1% increase. In a separate report, the Commerce Department showed existing home sales increased 18.9% in September from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000 units. Economists were expecting a 0.9% decline to 555,000 homes. Also supporting sentiment on the dollar was growing expectations that a less dovish Fed chair would be appointed amid several reports suggesting that Stanford University economist John Taylor impressed U.S. President Donald Trump in his interview to lead the Fed. Taylor favors a rule-based approach to monetary policy, which given the current level of both inflation and economic growth implies that rates should be higher than they are now. The prospect of more a hawkish Fed and bullish economic data, failed to help the dollar shake off losses against both the sterling and euro.
  • Gold prices were roughly unchanged on Wednesday as the dollar came under pressure despite bullish economic reports pointing to underlying strength in the U.S. economy. Bullish durable goods orders and housing data failed to spark a recovery in the dollar, lifting gold prices off session lows as the precious metal attempted to snap a three-day losing streak. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 1.3% last month, beating forecast of a 1% increase. In a separate report, the Commerce Department showed existing home sales increased 18.9% in September from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000 units. Economists were expecting a 0.9% decline to 555,000 homes. Despite the recovery from session lows, gold prices remained under pressure amid reports that Stanford University economist John Taylor – an economist with a less dovish outlook than Fed chair Janet Yellen – was leading the race to notch the Fed’s top post. Gold is sensitive to moves higher in both bond yields and the U.S. dollar – A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency while a rise in U.S. rates, lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.
  • U.S. oil prices slipped on Wednesday after a surprising increase in U.S. crude inventories, while U.S. gasoline futures rallied 1 percent on a sharp falloff in inventories. Brent crude edged up after top exporter Saudi Arabia reiterated its determination to end a three-year supply glut. The deep draw in gasoline inventories came even as refining output rose, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This suggested demand remained strong after the peak U.S. driving season. Crude inventories rose by 856,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 20, the EIA said. Analysts had expected a decrease of 2.6 million barrels. Production rebounded from a falloff due to Hurricane Nate, and imports rose. Brent crude futures settled up 11 cents at $58.44 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 29 cents to $52.18. The EIA data showed gasoline and distillate inventories both fell by more than 5 million barrels, and refinery utilization rates rose 3.3 percentage points. On Tuesday, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih on Tuesday raised the prospect of prolonged output restraint even after the end of an OPEC-led pact to cut supplies. Even as global inventory levels are falling, Brent has remained below $60 a barrel, partly on concern the crude glut may grow again after March 2018, when the output reduction deal is due to end. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers have cut oil output by about 1.8 million bpd. OPEC's next meeting is on Nov. 7 in Vienna, Austria, when they will consider extending the deal. While other producers cut output, U.S. production rebounded to 9.5 million bpd in the latest week. U.S. crude exports have averaged 1.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, the highest ever. Disruptions to exports from Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, have supported oil. Kurdish authorities on Wednesday offered to suspend their independence drive, but Baghdad said it would continue its offensive to retake Kurdish territory.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th October 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,279-1,288 1,300 1,312-1,321
Silver-XAG 17.10 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 53.00-53.75 54.60 55.10
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1875 1.1925 1.2000
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3360 1.3400 1.3460
USD/JPY 114.00-114.50 115.00 115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th October 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,273-1,266 1,260 1,252
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 52.00-51.50 50.90 50.10-49.00
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1750 1.1700 1.1660-1.1610
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3190 1.3100 1.3030-1.2950
USD/JPY 113.60 113.00-112.30 111.50

Intra-Day Strategy (26th October 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG N eutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1279.95/oz and low of US$1270.90/oz. Gold was up by 0.0564% at US$1277.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1300) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1300 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1273-1268 and 1263-1251. Buy above 1273-1251 with risk below 1251, targeting 1279-1288-1300 and 1311-1320.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,273-1,266
S2     1,260
S3     1,252
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,279-1,288
R2     1,300
R3     1,312-1,321

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.387

Buy
20-DMA   1282.31 Sell
50-DMA  

1299.29

Sell
100-DMA   1275.39 Buy
200-DMA   1259.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   31.075 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -4.446 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$17.02/oz and low of US$16.79/oz. Silver settled down by 0.118% at US$16.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: N eutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.10-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.10-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.10
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.039 Buy
20-DMA   16.94 Buy
50-DMA   17.19 Buy
100-DMA   16.4 Buy
200-DMA   17.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   27.817 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.026 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$52.54/bbl, intraday low of US$51.88/bbl and settled down by 0.685% to close at US$52.16/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 53.00-55.10 with stop loss at 55.10; targeting and 52.00-51.50 and 50.90-50.10-49.00. Buy above 52.00-49.00 with risk daily closing below 49.00 and targeting 52.50-53.00-53.70 and 54.60-55.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.00-51.50
S2     50.90
S3     50.10-49.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.00-53.75
R2     54.60
R3     55.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.491 Sell
20-DMA   51.22 Buy
50-DMA   49.86 Buy
100-DMA   48.19 Buy
200-DMA   49.43 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.952 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.631 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1752/EUR, high of US$1.1817/EUR and settled the day up by 0.442% to close at US$1.1811/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1800-1.1925 targeting 1.1750-1.1700-1.1660 and 1.1610-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1925. Buy above 1.1800-1.1610 with risk below 1.1610 targeting 1.1850-1.1875 and 1.1925-1.1980.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1750
S2     1.1700
S3     1.1660-1.1610

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1875
R2     1.1925
R3     1.2000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.115 Buy
20-DMA   1.1783 Buy
50-DMA   1.1849 Buy
100-DMA   1.1674 Buy
200-DMA   1.1239 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.0486 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.00103 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3109/GBP, high of US$1.3270/GBP and settled the day by up by 0.982% to close at US$1.3260/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3300-1.3460 with targets at 1.3260-1.3190-1.3100 and 1.3020- 1.2950. Buy above 1.3100-1.2900 with stop loss closing below 1.2900 targeting 1.3150-1.3190 and 1.3260-1.3300-1.3360.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3260-1.3190
S2     1.3100
S3     1.3030-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300-1.3360
R2     1.3400
R3     1.3460

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.081

Buy
20-DMA   1.3214 Buy
50-DMA   1.3184 Buy
100-DMA   1.3057 Buy
200-DMA   1.2835 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   77.420 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.47/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.23/USD and settled the day up by 0.131% at JPY113.73/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-115.60 with risk above 115.60 targeting 113.60-113.00-112.30 and 111.50-111.0. Long positions above 113.00-111.00 with targets of 113.60-114.00-114.60 and 115.00-115.60 with stop below 111.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.60
S2     113.00-112.30
S3     111.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00-114.50
R2     115.00
R3     115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.665 Buy
20-DMA   112.79 Buy
50-DMA   111.29 Buy
100-DMA   111.35 Buy
200-DMA   111.72 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   77.057 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.576 Sell

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