AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks were mostly sluggish on Tuesday after weakness on Wall Street, while the dollar sagged following news that investigators probing Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election had charged President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager. Data showing a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China’s October factory growth also curbed regional investors’ appetite for riskier assets. Beijing’s war on winter air pollution is forcing many northern steel mills, smelters and factories to curtail production, adding to uncertainty amid early signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The greenback lost about 0.4 percent against the yen overnight on investor caution following news of President Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort facing charges. Manafort and another aide, Rick Gates, were charged with money laundering on Monday by Federal investigators. The U.S. currency was also pressured as Treasury yields slipped on reports that President Trump is likely to appoint Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, who is viewed as more dovish than other contenders, as the next head of the Federal Reserve. European markets got a lift on Monday after an opinion poll showing waning support for independence soothed investors’ concerns over a Catalan secession from Spain.
  • Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and roughly maintained its ambitious price forecasts on Tuesday, pointing to signs of growing strength in the economy that policymakers hope will accelerate inflation toward its elusive 2 percent target. Board newcomer Goushi Kataoka made no proposal on additional easing, defying market expectations he might do so after dissenting to last month’s BOJ decision to keep policy steady. But he said the central bank should make clear its readiness to expand stimulus again and commit, via its bond purchases, to keeping the yield on longer-term bonds low. As widely expected, the BOJ kept intact a pledge to guide short-term interest rates at minus 0.1 percent and the 10-year bond yield around zero percent by a 8-1 vote. Kataoka dissented to the decision to stand pat. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is expected to hold a briefing at 3:30 p.m. (0630 GMT) to explain the policy decision. In a quarterly review of its projections, the BOJ slightly cut its inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year ending in March 2017 but roughly maintained its optimistic projections for the following years. The dissent by Kataoka, a former private economist, could complicate the BOJ’s efforts to follow the footsteps of its U.S. and European counterparts in dialing back stimulus, albeit gradually, analysts say. Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized 2.5 percent in the second quarter as consumer and corporate spending picked up, with steady growth likely to be sustained in coming quarters But core consumer prices rose just 0.7 percent in September from a year earlier, well below the BOJ’s target, keeping the bank under pressure to maintain its ultra-easy policy.
  • China reported the official manufacturing PMI for October at 51.6, compared with a level of 52 expected, and its non-manufacturing survey at 54.3, after 55.4 in the previous month. Overnight, gold prices rebounded from session lows as the dollar came under pressure after data showed inflation continued to stutter amid growing speculation that President Donald Trump is likely to pick Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell to replace current Fed chair Janet Yellen. Gold prices steadied ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting which gets underway on Tuesday after data showed inflation remained subdued while consumer spending grew at its fastest rate in more than eight years. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index excluding food and energy, rose 1.3% in the 12 months through September. That was in-line with expectations but well below the Fed’s 2% target, fuelling expectations that the trend of subdued inflation will keep interest rates lower for longer. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, jumped 1% last month, the Commerce Department said on Monday. That was the biggest jump in consumer spending since August 2009. The mixed duo of reports come amid reports that President Donald Trump’s is leaning toward appointing Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell – who shares a similar stance to Janet Yellen on monetary policy – to be the next chairman of the Fed, Reuters reported Monday, citing a source.
  • Oil prices were stable early on Tuesday, supported by a tightening market due to ongoing OPEC-led efforts to cut supplies, although the prospect of rising U.S. shale output dragged. Despite generally upbeat market sentiment, some analysts were cautious after several days dominated by strong price rises. The bullish market has been fueled by an effort led by the OPEC and Russia to hold back about 1.8 million (bpd) in oil production to tighten markets and prop up prices. The pact runs to March 2018, but Saudi Arabia and Russia have voiced support to extend the agreement. OPEC is scheduled to meet officially at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 30.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
31st October 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,279-1,288 1,300 1,311
Silver-XAG 17.10 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 54.60-55.10 55.50 56.30
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1700 1.1750 1.1800-1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3300 1.3360 1.3400
USD/JPY 114.00 114.50-115.00 115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
31st October 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,266 1,260-1,252 1,244
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 53.75-53.00 52.00 51.50-50.90
EURO/USD 1.1600-1.1550 1.1490 1.1400
GBP/USD 1.3190-1.3150 1.3100 1.3030-1.2950
USD/JPY 113.60 113.00-112.30 111.50

Intra-Day Strategy (31st October 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1278.70/oz and low of US$1268.84/oz. Gold was up by 0.237% at US$1276.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1275) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1275-1300 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1266-1260-1251 and 1244-1235. Buy above 1260-1235 with risk below 1235, targeting 1273-1279-1288 and 1300-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,266
S2     1,260-1,252
S3     1,244
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,279-1,288
R2     1,300
R3     1,311

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.184

Buy
20-DMA   1281.41 Sell
50-DMA  

1298.84

Sell
100-DMA   1275.34 Sell
200-DMA   1259.46 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   27.561 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.551 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$16.88/oz and low of US$16.69/oz. Silver settled up by 0.059% at US$16.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.10-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.10-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.10
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.419 Buy
20-DMA   16.94 Buy
50-DMA   17.19 Buy
100-DMA   16.84 Buy
200-DMA   17.16 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.804 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.050 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$54.44/bbl, intraday low of US$53.72/bbl and settled down by 0.036% to close at US$54.10/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 54.60-56.30 with stop loss at 56.30; targeting and 53.75-53.00 and 52.00-51.50-50.90. Buy above 53.75-51.00 with risk daily closing below 51.00 and targeting 54.60-55.10 and 55.50-56.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     53.75-53.00
S2     52.00
S3     51.50-50.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     54.60-55.10
R2     55.50
R3     56.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.225 Sell
20-DMA   51.76 Buy
50-DMA   50.24 Buy
100-DMA   48.44 Buy
200-DMA   49.46 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.889 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.953 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1573/EUR, high of US$1.1657/EUR and settled the day up by 0.370% to close at US$1.1648/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.1937), which become immediate support level, break below will target 1.1700-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1660-1.1850 targeting 1.1610-1.1555 and 1.1490-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1850. Buy above 1.1600-1.1400 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1660-1.1700 and 1.1750-1.1800-1.1850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1600-1.1550
S2     1.1490
S3     1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1660-1.1700
R2     1.1750
R3     1.1800-1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.914 Buy
20-DMA   1.1754 Buy
50-DMA   1.1836 Buy
100-DMA   1.1686 Buy
200-DMA   1.1252 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.974 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0045 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3121/GBP, high of US$1.3214/GBP and settled the day up by 0.549% to close at US$1.3205/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3150-1.3300 with targets at 1.3260-1.3190-1.3100 and 1.3020- 1.2950. Buy above 1.300-1.2900 with stop loss closing below 1.2900 targeting 1.3150-1.3190 and 1.3260-1.3300-1.3360.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3190-1.3150
S2     1.3100
S3     1.3030-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3260-1.3300
R2     1.3360
R3     1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.650

Buy
20-DMA   1.3190 Sell
50-DMA   1.3201 Sell
100-DMA   1.3070 Buy
200-DMA   1.2859 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   52.183 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0015 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY113.02/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.88/USD and settled the day down by 0.492% at JPY113.15/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.50-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 114.00-113.60 and 113.00-112.30. Long positions above 114.00-112.30 with targets of 114.60-115.00 and 115.60-116.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.60
S2     113.00-112.30
S3     111.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.50-115.00
R3     115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.458 Buy
20-DMA   112.86 Buy
50-DMA   111.38 Buy
100-DMA   111.38 Buy
200-DMA   111.72 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   67.259 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.592 Sell

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