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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares took a breather on Friday as investors gave a guarded greeting to Republican plans for massive U.S. tax cuts, while welcoming the appointment of a sober centrist at the helm of the world’s most powerful central bank. A holiday in Japan kept volumes light, while investors observed the usual caution ahead of the U.S. payrolls report which is expected to show a big bounce back from September’s hurricane-hit result. News that Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell would be the new head of the U.S. central bank was well flagged, but still something of a relief. In Washington, House Republicans finally unveiled long-delayed plans for deep tax cuts that President Donald Trump has promised, setting off a frantic race in Congress to give him his first major legislative victory. Passage of legislation that mainly favours corporations and the wealthy was far from certain, and some business groups quickly came out against it. Currency investors were equally underwhelmed, leaving the U.S. dollar flat against most peers as Treasury yields dipped. Against a basket of currencies it was stuck at 94.664 .DXY after a week of narrow range-trading. Not so steady was sterling, which took a hammering overnight when the Bank of England hiked rates for the first time in a decade but said further moves would be “very gradual”.
  • U.S. job growth likely rebounded sharply in October after hurricane-related disruptions depressed employment in September, in a move that could seal the case for an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve in December even as wage growth probably slowed. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday will likely show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 310,000 jobs last month. That would be the largest gain since October 2015. Payrolls declined by 33,000 jobs in September, the first drop in seven years, as employment in the leisure and hospitality sector tumbled by a record 111,000.The drop was blamed on hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which devastated parts of Texas and Florida in late August and early September, leaving workers mostly in lower-paying industries temporarily unemployed. The U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and financial markets have almost priced in an increase in borrowing costs in December. The Fed has hiked rates twice this year.But the return of lower-paid industry workers is expected to slow wage growth in October. Average hourly earnings shot up 0.5 percent in September, lifting the annual increase to 2.9 percent. They are seen gaining 0.2 percent in October, which would lower the year-on-year increase to 2.7 percent. Economists, however, remain optimistic that wage growth will accelerate with the labor market near full employment. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at a more than 16-1/2-year low of 4.2 percent. The jobless rate is slightly below the Fed’s median forecast for 2017.For now, tepid wage growth would bolster views that inflation will continue to undershoot its 2 percent target and raise concerns about consumer spending, which appears to have been largely supported by savings. The economy grew at a 3.0 percent annualized rate in the third quarter. Economic strength has persisted even as President Donald Trump and the Republican-led U.S. Congress have struggled to enact their economic program. October’s anticipated employment gains would bring the average for the past two months to 139,000, below the 172,000 monthly average in the last 12 months to August. The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.
  • Oil markets rose on Friday, supported by OPEC-led supply cuts which are tightening the market as well as by strong demand, but analysts cautioned that the cuts would need to be extended to counter rising U.S. output.The bullish market sentiment has been fueled this year by the OPEC and other producers, including Russia, to hold back 1.8 mn bpd in oil production to tighten markets.While supplies are being withheld, oil demand is rising, especially in China, whose roughly 9 million bpd of imports has surpassed the United States as the world's biggest crude importer.The pact to withhold supplies runs to March 2018, but there is growing consensus to extend the deal to cover all of next year.Analysts say that without an extension of the cuts, a supply glut could re-emerge, especially due to rising U.S. production.Because of that, he said "we see no other option for OPEC and Russia than to agree to an extension of supply cuts past March 2018."Tchilinguirian said rising U.S. output, which has jumped by more than 13 percent since middle of 2016 to 9.6 million bpd, was resulting in increased exports.The EIA said this week that the latest U.S. crude oil export figures rose a record 2.1 million bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd November 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,279-1,288 1,300 1,311
Silver-XAG 17.20 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 55.20-56.00 56.50 57.75
EURO/USD 1.1700 1.1750 1.1800-1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3100 1.3150 1.3260-1.3300
USD/JPY 114.50-115.00 115.50 116.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd November 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,266 1,260-1,252 1,244
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 54.60-53.75 53.00 52.00-51.50
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1600 1.1550 1.1490-1.1400
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.3000 1.2950 1.2840
USD/JPY 114.00 113.60 113.00-112.30

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd November 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold onThursday made its intraday high of US$1284.05/oz and low of US$1267.85/oz. Gold was up by 0.123% at US$1275.78/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices arebelow 100DMA (1275) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is inoversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversoldterritory and givingnegativecrossover to confirm bearishstance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1279-1311keeping stop loss closing above 1311and targeting1266-1260-1251 and 1244-1235.Buy above 1269-1235with risk below 1235, targeting1279-1288 and 1300-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,266
S2     1,260-1,252
S3     1,244
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,279-1,288
R2     1,300
R3     1,311

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.177

Buy
20-DMA   1282.05 Sell
50-DMA  

1297.44

Sell
100-DMA   1276.08 Sell
200-DMA   1261.20 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.802 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.120 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.22/oz and low of US$17.02/oz. Silver settled down by 0.058% at US$17.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.10-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.10-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.20
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.342 Buy
20-DMA   17.03 Buy
50-DMA   17.18 Buy
100-DMA   16.84 Buy
200-DMA   17.16 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.370 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.019 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$54.82/bbl, intraday low of US$54.82/bbl and settled up by 0.829% to close at US$54.72/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 55.20-57.75 with stop loss at 57.75; targeting and 54.60-53.75-53.00 and 52.00-51.50. Buy above 54.60-51.00 with risk daily closing below 51.00 and targeting 55.10-55.50-56.30 and 57.00-57.75.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     54.60-53.75
S2     53.00
S3     52.00-51.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     55.20-56.00
R2     56.50
R3     57.75

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.349 Sell
20-DMA   52.48 Buy
50-DMA   50.65 Buy
100-DMA   48.74 Buy
200-DMA   49.48 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   76.000 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.131 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1612/EUR, high of US$1.1686/EUR and settled the day up by 0.292% to close at US$1.1655/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving upwards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1700-1.1850 targeting 1.1660-1.1600-1.1555 and 1.1490-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1850. Buy above 1.1660-1.1400 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1700-1.1750 and 1.1800-1.1850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1600
S2     1.1550
S3     1.1490-1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1700
R2     1.1750
R3     1.1800-1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.860 Buy
20-DMA   1.1742 Buy
50-DMA   1.1825 Buy
100-DMA   1.1700 Buy
200-DMA   1.1266 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.829 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3041/GBP, high of US$1.3298/GBP and settled the day down by 1.449% to close at US$1.3056/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3100-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.3000 and 1.2950-1.2840. Buy above 1.3050-1.2840 with stop loss closing below 1.2840 targeting 1.3100-1.3150-1.3260 and 1.3300-1.3360.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3050-1.3000
S2     1.2950
S3     1.2840

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100
R2     1.3150
R3     1.3260-1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.246

Buy
20-DMA   1.3191 Sell
50-DMA   1.3221 Sell
100-DMA   1.3082 Buy
200-DMA   1.2854 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   27.752 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0025 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY113.52/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.20/USD and settled the day down by 0.043% at JPY114.07/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently is approaching oversold region. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.50-116.20 with risk above 116.20 targeting 114.00-113.60-113.00 and 112.30-111.50. Long positions above 114.00-111.50 with targets of 114.60-115.00 and 115.60-116.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.00
S2     113.60
S3     113.00-112.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.50-115.00
R2     115.50
R3     116.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.460 Buy
20-DMA   113.13 Buy
50-DMA   111.83 Buy
100-DMA   111.56 Buy
200-DMA   111.72 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   78.465 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.573 Sell

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