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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares wrung out another decade peak on Wednesday as data showed China’s demand for imports remained buoyant, while the dollar dipped amid concerns Republican plans for major U.S. tax cuts were running into headwinds. Beijing reported imports in October rose 17.2% from a year earlier, beating forecasts of 16 percent, but export growth was just under estimates at 6.9%. Investors were also keeping a cautious eye on President Donald Trump’s Asian trip as he offered a stern warning to North Korea over its nuclear ambitions. In the currency market, trading was described as a “random walk” by analysts at Citi with no clear trend to follow. The euro steadied around having touched a nearly four-month trough at $1.1552 overnight in the wake of disappointing German industrial data. The move largely reflects wagers the Fed is determined to hike in December, pushing up short-term yields. Such a move was likely to ensure inflation stays lower for longer, thus pulling down longer-dated yields and flattening the curve. Flatter curves are sometimes harbingers of slower economic growth, but can also signal excessive risk taking as investors lend for longer and longer in search of better returns.
  • Dollar held weaker in Asia on Wednesday on mixed trade data from China and after a strong speech from President Donald Trump to the South Korean parliament in which he warned North Korea not to make a "miscalculation" in development of its missile and nuclear weapons programs. China reported its trade balance for October at $26.62 billion, narrower compared with a $39.50 billion surplus seen and imports jumped 17.2%, above the 16% increase expected, while exports rose 6.9%, below the 7.2% gain seen. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, eased 0.08% to 94.73. Overnight, the dollar traded higher on Tuesday amid data showing an uptick in labor market strength as job openings in September topped expectations. The U.S. Labor Department's latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) report, a measure of labor demand, showed job openings in September improved to about 6.1 million, beating expectations of 6.091 million. The dollar pared some its gains following the data, however, as traders braced for President Donald Trump’s speech on North Korea slated for Wednesday. Trump will use the speech to wrap up his South Korea visit as the president prepares for his visit to Beijing later on Wednesday as part of his 12-day Asia tour. The retreat in the greenback from session highs was limited amid signs of progress on tax reform after Republic lawmakers began on Monday revising their proposed overhaul of the U.S. tax system. Sentiment on the greenback has turned positive as data showed traders continued to abandon their bearish bets on the dollar The value of the dollar's net short position, derived from net positions of International Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars, was $3.37 billion, in the week to Oct. 31. That compares with a net short position of $8.02 billion in the previous week. In Europe, meanwhile, upbeat retail sales data failed offset losses in the euro while better-than-expected UK housing data had little impact on sterling as both currencies traded lower against the greenback.
  • Oil markets dipped on Wednesday as Chinese crude imports fell to their lowest level in a year, although traders said that overall markets remained well supported largely due to OPEC-lead supply cuts. Traders said the market was eyeing growing tensions in the Middle East with concern, keeping a cautious tone on trade. China's October oil imports fell sharply from a near record-high of about 9 million bpd in September to just 7.3 million bpd in October, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Wednesday. That's their lowest level since October 2016. Despite this, oil markets remain well supported, traders said. This is largely due to an ongoing effort lead by the OPEC and Russia to withhold supplies in order to prop up prices. With crude still more than 40 percent up since June, oil-consuming industries that benefited from comparatively low prices are now starting to feel the pinch. Beyond supply and demand fundamentals, traders were closely eyeing escalating tensions in the Middle East. "Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's resignation and a missile launch by pro-Iran Yemeni Houthis on Riyadh increase the risk of a regional conflict," political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said. The resignation on Saturday of the Saudi-allied Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, announced from Riyadh and blamed on Iran and Hezbollah, is seen by many as the first step in an unprecedented Saudi intervention in Lebanese politics. Saudi air defense forces intercepted a ballistic missile fired toward Riyadh on Sunday. Saudi Arabia accuses arch-foe Iran of supplying missiles and other weapons to Houthi militia in Yemen. Iran denies the charges and blames the war in Yemen on Riyadh.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th November 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,281-1,290 1,300 1,311
Silver-XAG 17.20 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 57.75 58.85-59.50 60.50
EURO/USD 1.1750 1.1750 1.1800-1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3300 1.3360 1.3440
USD/JPY 114.00 114.50-115.00 115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th November 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,274 1,266 1,260-1,252
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 56.60 56.00 55.20-54.60
EURO/USD 1.1590 1.1550 1.1490-1.1400
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3100 1.3050 1.3000-1.2950
USD/JPY 113.60 113.00-112.30 111.50

Intra-Day Strategy (8th November 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1281.75/oz and low of US$1271.74/oz. Gold was down by 0.504% at US$1275.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1275) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1281-1311 keeping stop loss closing above 1311 and targeting 1274-1266-1260-1251 and 1244-1235. Buy above 1269-1235 with risk below 1235, targeting 1279-1288 and 1300-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,274
S2     1,266
S3     1,260-1,252
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,281-1,290
R2     1,300
R3     1,311

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.127

Buy
20-DMA   1280.29 Sell
50-DMA  

1295.44

Sell
100-DMA   1277.03 Sell
200-DMA   1262.36 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.526 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.994 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$17.20/oz and low of US$16.90/oz. Silver settled down by 1.627% at US$16.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.20-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.20-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.20
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.683 Buy
20-DMA   17.03 Buy
50-DMA   17.17 Buy
100-DMA   16.86 Buy
200-DMA   17.16 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.323 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0049 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$57.67/bbl, intraday low of US$56.82/bbl and settled down by 0.593% to close at US$56.92/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.75-60.50 with stop loss at 60.50; targeting and 57.00-56.50-56.00 and 54.60-53.75 Buy above 57.00-54.60 with risk daily closing below 54.60 and targeting 57.75-58.85 and 59.50-60.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.60
S2     56.00
S3     55.20-54.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.75
R2     58.85-59.50
R3     60.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   75.149 Sell
20-DMA   53.51 Buy
50-DMA   51.31 Buy
100-DMA   49.16 Buy
200-DMA   49.55 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.689 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.583 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1553/EUR, high of US$1.1614/EUR and settled the day down by 0.206% to close at US$1.1585/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1660-1.1850 targeting 1.1590-1.1555 and 1.1490-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1850. Buy above 1.1590-1.1400 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1660-1.1700-1.1750 and 1.1800-1.1850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1590
S2     1.1550
S3     1.1490-1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1750
R2     1.1750
R3     1.1800-1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   26.980 Buy
20-DMA   1.1708 Buy
50-DMA   1.1803 Buy
100-DMA   1.1712 Buy
200-DMA   1.1279 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.980 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0057 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3108/GBP, high of US$1.3177/GBP and settled the day down by 0.037% to close at US$1.3165/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3260-1.3440 with targets at 1.3150-1.3100-1.3050 and 1.3000-1.2950. Buy above 1.3150-1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2950 targeting 1.3260-1.3300 and 1.3360-1.3440.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3150-1.3100
S2     1.3050
S3     1.3000-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3260-1.3300
R2     1.3360
R3     1.3440

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.161

Buy
20-DMA   1.3188 Sell
50-DMA   1.3235 Sell
100-DMA   1.3096 Buy
200-DMA   1.2863 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   46.750 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0021 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.68/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.33/USD and settled the day up by 0.255% at JPY113.98/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to buy as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.50-116.20 with risk above 116.20 targeting 114.00-113.60-113.00 and 112.30-111.50. Long positions above 114.00-111.50 with targets of 114.60-115.00 and 115.60-116.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.60
S2     113.00-112.30
S3     111.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.50-115.00
R3     115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.117 Buy
20-DMA   113.32 Buy
50-DMA   112.08 Buy
100-DMA   111.63 Buy
200-DMA   111.73 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   35.620 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.503 Sell

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