AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks stumbled on Wednesday after weaker crude oil prices took a toll on Wall Street, while the euro kept big gains after enjoying a boost from robust German economic growth. Lifted by steady economic growth, supportive monetary policies and solid corporate earnings, global equities have rallied hard, with those in the United States, Germany and South Korea scaling record heights recently, while Japan’s Nikkei climbed a 26-year peak. The yen as well as Japan’s equity and bond markets showed little reaction to Wednesday’s GDP data. Japan’s economy grew for the seventh straight quarter during the July-September period, although this was tempered somewhat as private consumption declined for the first time since the last quarter of 2015. Financial markets, which are betting the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December, will be looking for clues to gauge how many more rate increases could be in store next year. On Tuesday, a batch of data from China - Australia’s biggest export market - showed the economy cooled further last month, with industrial output, fixed asset investment and retail sales missing expectations. The euro remained close to 2-1/2 week highs in early Asian trading on Wednesday, getting a boost from upbeat German economic data as investor’s awaited U.S. consumer inflation data later in the global session. Germany's seasonally adjusted gross domestic product rose by 0.8% on the quarter, beating a Reuter’s poll forecast of 0.6%. Investors awaited U.S. consumer inflation data for October later on Wednesday, which is expected to show a marginal increase in consumer prices. Data on Tuesday showed U.S. producer prices rose a more-than-expected 0.4 percent last month, boosting the PPI 2.8% in the 12 months through October for the biggest annual increase in wholesale inflation in more than 5-1/2 yrs. But economists said the strong producer price readings probably did not translate into higher consumer prices in October because the correlation between the PPI and consumer price index has weakened. Data released earlier on Wednesday showed Japan's economy posted its longest period of uninterrupted growth in more than a decade, expanding at a 1.4% annualised rate in the July-September quarter. That was slightly above the median estimate for annualised growth of 1.3%.
  • Gold prices eased in Asia on Wednesday as investors continue to see uncertainty about next year's outlook for interest rates in the U.S. and Europe. In Japan, third quarter GDP came in at a provisional 0.3% increase on quarter as expected and a 1.4% pace for the year, a bit more than the 1.3% rise expected. In Australia, the wage price index came in at a 0.5% increase, compared with a 0.7% rise seen on quarter and at a 2.0% rise, compared with a 2.2% increase on year expected Four of the world's top central bankers promised on Tuesday to keep openly guiding investors about future policy moves as they slowly withdraw the huge monetary stimulus rolled out during the financial crisis. After pumping some $10 trillion into financial markets since the 2008 crisis driving them many markets to record highs - the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England and BoJ are now trying to wean investors off easy money without causing an upset. The Fed has said it expects three rate hikes in 2018 as well as one in December, but the market ha not priced those in fully for next year. The Labor Department said on Tuesday its producer price index for final demand increased 0.4% last month. In the 12 months through October, the PPI rose 2.8% after rising 2.6% in September. The upbeat wholesale inflation report eased investor fears over the recent trend of slowing inflation, lifting expectations for a bullish consumer inflation report due Wednesday. Supporting the uptick in sentiment on gold prices was data showing that traders increased their bullish bets on the precious metal for the second week in a row. Net bullish bets on gold rose to 195,800, from 193,100 the previous week according to a report from the CFTC on Monday.
  • Oil prices fell more than 1% on Wednesday, continuing Tuesday's slide after the International Energy Agency cast doubts over the past few months' narrative of tightening fuel markets. The price falls mean that crude prices are now down by around 5 percent since hitting 2015 highs last week, ending a 40-percent rally between June and early November. The IEA on Tuesday cut its oil demand growth forecast by 100K bpd for this year and next, to an estimated 1.5 mn bpd in 2017 and 1.3 mn bpd in 2018. The demand slowdown could mean world oil consumption may not, as many expect, breach 100 million bpd next year, while supplies are likely to exceed that level. The IEA report countered the OPEC, which just a day earlier said 2018 would see a strong rise in oil demand. Vijayakar said a reported increase in U.S. crude inventories was also weighing on prices. The API said on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.5 mn barrels in the week to Nov. 10 to 461.8 mn. U.S. government inventory data is due later on Wednesday. On the supply side, rising U.S. output also pressured prices. U.S. oil production has already increased by more than 14 percent since mid-2016 to 9.62 mn bpd and is expected to grow further. The IEA said non-OPEC production will add 1.4 mn bpd of additional production in 2018. The IEA's outlook pressures OPEC to keep restraining output in order to defend crude prices, which its members rely on for revenue. OPEC and some non-OPEC producers including Russia have been withholding production this year to end years of oversupply.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th November 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,281 1,290-1,300 1,311
Silver-XAG 17.20 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 55.20-56.00 56.50 57.00
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1850 1.1910 1.1990
GBP/USD 1.3150 1.3360 1.3360
USD/JPY 113.60-114.00 114.50 115.00-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th November 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,274 1,266 1,260-1,252
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 54.80-54.00 53.20 52.50
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1700 1.1660 1.1610
GBP/USD 1.3100 1.3050 1.3000-1.2950
USD/JPY 113.00-112.30 111.50 110.60

Intra-Day Strategy (15th November 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1283.49/oz and low of US$1269.86/oz. Gold was up by 0.140% at US$1280.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1278) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1281-1311 keeping stop loss closing above 1311 and targeting 1274-1266 and 1260-1251. Buy above 1274-1235 with risk below 1235, targeting 1281-1288-1300 and 1311-1320.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,274
S2     1,266
S3     1,260-1,252
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,281
R2     1,290-1,300
R3     1,311

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.904

Buy
20-DMA   1277.53 Sell
50-DMA  

1290.42

Sell
100-DMA   1278.58 Sell
200-DMA   1263.80 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   50.695 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.971 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$17.07/oz and low of US$16.81/oz. Silver settled down by 0.176% at US$17.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.20-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.20-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.20
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.801 Buy
20-DMA   16.97 Buy
50-DMA   17.08 Buy
100-DMA   16.88 Buy
200-DMA   17.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   57.267 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0068 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$56.75/bbl, intraday low of US$54.79/bbl and settled down by 3.102% to close at US$54.97/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 55.20-57.00 with stop loss at 57.00; targeting and 54.80-54.00 and 53.20-52.50. Buy above 54.80-52.50 with risk daily closing below 52.50 and targeting 55.20-56.00 and 56.50-57.00-57.75.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     54.80-54.00
S2     53.20
S3     52.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     55.20-56.00
R2     56.50
R3     57.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.527 Sell
20-DMA   54.60 Buy
50-DMA   52.13 Buy
100-DMA   49.78 Buy
200-DMA   49.62 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.828 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.272 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1660/EUR, high of US$1.1804/EUR and settled the day up by 1.122% to close at US$1.1797/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1800-1.1990 targeting 1.1750-1.1700-1.1660 and 1.1555-1.1490 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1750-1.1610 with risk below 1.1610 targeting 1.1800-1.1850 and 1.1910-1.1990.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750-1.1700
S2     1.1660
S3     1.1610

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800-1.1850
R2     1.1910
R3     1.1990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.714 Buy
20-DMA   1.1686 Buy
50-DMA   1.1784 Buy
100-DMA   1.1736 Buy
200-DMA   1.1303 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.820 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0017 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3074/GBP, high of US$1.3186/GBP and settled the day up by 0.373% to close at US$1.3163/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3150-1.3360 with targets at 1.3100-1.3050 and 1.3000-1.2950. Buy above 1.3100-1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2950 targeting 1.3260-1.3300 and 1.3360-1.3440.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100
S2     1.3050
S3     1.3000-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3150
R2     1.3360
R3     1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.333

Buy
20-DMA   1.3165 Sell
50-DMA   1.3252 Sell
100-DMA   1.3115 Buy
200-DMA   1.2879 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.043 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0019 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.30/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.90/USD and settled the day down by 0.149% at JPY113.44/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.60-116.20 with risk above 116.20 targeting 113.00-112.30 and 111.50-110.60. Long positions above 113.00-110.60 with targets of 113.60-114.00-114.60 and 115.00-115.60 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00-112.30
S2     111.50
S3     110.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.60-114.00
R2     114.50
R3     115.00-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.289 Buy
20-DMA   113.62 Buy
50-DMA   112.47 Buy
100-DMA   111.71 Buy
200-DMA   111.75 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   29.892 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.267 Sell

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