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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rose firmly on Friday as strong U.S. earnings and a step forward in Congress on U.S. tax reform brightened the mood, even though investors noted that many hurdles remain to passage of a deal on tax cuts. But the dollar fell after the Wall Street Journal reported Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team last month subpoenaed President Donald Trump’s campaign for documents containing specified Russian keywords from more than a dozen officials. The U.S. House of Representatives approved a broad package of tax cuts sought by Trump, passing its first, if smallest, hurdle and providing a catalyst for fresh buying in risk assets. The tax debate now moves to the U.S. Senate, where that chamber’s separate plan has already encountered resistance from some Republicans. No decisive Senate action is expected until after next week’s Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 23. Fed funds rates futures are now pricing in about a 90 percent chance of another rate hike by June next year, the highest level in recent months and up from about 50 percent just over a month ago. The U.S. dollar, however, lost momentum and fell broadly following the media report Mueller issued a subpoena to more than a dozen officials in the Trump administration. Among Asian currencies, countries with current account surpluses saw their currencies gains.
  • The dollar slipped on Friday, weakened by a Wall Street Journal report that investigators into possible Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election had subpoenaed President Donald Trump's election campaign for documents. Special Counsel Robert Mueller's team issued the subpoena last month for documents containing specified Russian keywords from more than a dozen officials, according to the report. The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved a broad package of tax cuts sought by Trump. The debate now moves to the Senate, where Republican majority is smaller and no decisive action is expected until after next week's Thanksgiving holiday. Against the sagging dollar, sterling extended gains after drawing support overnight when an initiative by European Central Bank President Donald Tusk on Brexit negotiations was taken as mildly positive.
  • Gold prices edged up in Asia as U.S. tax cuts move closer to passage, raising inflation concerns for some investors. U.S. House of Representatives passed its version of the tax cut legislation while a key committee reported its version to the full U.S. Senate. Overnight, gold prices were roughly unchanged on Thursday as the recent trend of flattening yields faded but downside momentum was capped by dollar weakness on the back of soft economic data. Ahead of the GOP House vote on tax reform, gold prices traded in a narrow range on Thursday as gains amid a falling dollar were capped by an uptick in treasury yields. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that initial jobless claims increased 10,000 a seasonally adjusted 249,000 for the week ended Nov. 11, missing forecasts of a 4,000 decrease. Philly Fed manufacturing index for November fell to 22.7 in November from 27.9 in October, undershooting economists’ forecasts for a reading of 25. Traders, however, shifted attention to tax reform as the House is poised to pass a massive overhaul of the U.S. tax code on Thursday as Republicans attempt to push through tax reform before year-end. Uncertainty over the outcome of tax reform has renewed investor appetite for safe-haven gold, as data showed traders increase their bets on the precious metal last week. A fire has broken out at the main port used by copper miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc in Papua, Indonesia, on Thursday night, company sources said.
  • Oil prices steadied on Friday after recent declines, but were on track for their first weekly fall in six weeks as concerns about surging U.S. supplies put a dent in the market’s recent rally. Crude markets have received general support in the past months by the OPEC, which together with some non-OPEC producers including Russia has been withholding production since January in order to tighten the market and prop up prices. This has lead to an almost 40 percent rise in Brent prices since June. The deal to restrain output is due to expire in March 2018, but OPEC will meet on Nov. 30 to discuss policy. It is expected to agree an extension of the cuts as storage levels remain high despite recent drawdowns. Khalid al-Falih, the energy minister of Saudi Arabia, which is OPEC’s de-facto leader, said on Thursday that “we need to recognize that by the end of March we’re not going to be at the level we want to be which is the five-year average, that means an extension of some sort.” OPEC’s main obstacle in tightening the market is the United States, where crude oil production EIA hit a record of 9.65 million bpd this month, meaning output has risen by almost 15 percent since their most recent low in mid-2016. Traders said they were looking for a weekly U.S. drilling report published by oil services firm Baker Hughes for market guidance.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th November 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,281 1,290-1,300 1,311
Silver-XAG 17.20 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 55.40-56.00 56.50 57.00
EURO/USD 1.2040 1.1990 1.2040
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3300 1.3360 1.3425
USD/JPY 113.00-113.60 114.00 114.50-115.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th November 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,274 1,266 1,260-1,252
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 52.50 53.20 52.50
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1750 1.1700 1.2040
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3150-1.3100 1.3050
USD/JPY 112.30-111.50 110.60 110.00

Intra-Day Strategy (17th November 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1281.71/oz and low of US$1275.01/oz. Gold was up by 0.0003% at US$1278.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1278) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1281-1311 keeping stop loss closing above 1311 and targeting 1274-1266 and 1260-1251. Buy above 1274-1235 with risk below 1235, targeting 1281-1288-1300 and 1311-1320.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,274
S2     1,266
S3     1,260-1,252
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,281
R2     1,290-1,300
R3     1,311

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.813

Buy
20-DMA   1276.79 Sell
50-DMA  

1288.94

Sell
100-DMA   1278.88 Sell
200-DMA   1263.97 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   45.099 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.075 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.11/oz and low of US$16.94/oz. Silver settled up by 0.589% at US$17.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.20-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.20-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.20
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.272 Buy
20-DMA   16.95 Buy
50-DMA   17.05 Buy
100-DMA   16.88 Buy
200-DMA   17.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.351 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0105 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$55.60/bbl, intraday low of US$54.92/bbl and settled up by 0.090% to close at US$55.24/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 55.50-57.00 with stop loss at 57.00; targeting and 54.80-54.00 and 53.20-52.50. Buy above 54.80-52.50 with risk daily closing below 52.50 and targeting 55.20-56.00 and 56.50-57.00-57.75.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.50
S2     53.20
S3     52.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     55.40-56.00
R2     56.50
R3     57.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   580.242 Sell
20-DMA   54.81 Buy
50-DMA   52.26 Buy
100-DMA   49.89 Buy
200-DMA   49.64 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.934 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.180 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1756/EUR, high of US$1.1800/EUR and settled the day down by 0.178% to close at US$1.1769/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1850-1.2040 targeting 1.1800-1.1750-1.1700 and 1.1660-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2040. Buy above 1.1800-1.1600 with risk below 1.1610 targeting 1.1850-1.1910 and 1.1990-1.2040.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1750
S2     1.1700
S3     1.2040

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2040
R2     1.1990
R3     1.2040

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.789 Buy
20-DMA   1.1683 Buy
50-DMA   1.1775 Buy
100-DMA   1.1743 Buy
200-DMA   1.1314 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   71.317 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3134/GBP, high of US$1.3206/GBP and settled the day up by 0.174% to close at US$1.3193/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3260-1.3425 with targets at 1.3200-1.3100-1.3050 and 1.3000-1.2950. Buy above 1.3200--1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2950 targeting 1.3260-1.3300 and 1.3360-1.3440.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200
S2     1.3150-1.3100
S3     1.3050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3260-1.3300
R2     1.3360
R3     1.3425

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.900

Buy
20-DMA   1.3170 Sell
50-DMA   1.3255 Sell
100-DMA   1.3119 Buy
200-DMA   1.2886 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.270 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0073 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY112.72/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.32/USD and settled the day up by 0.159% at JPY113.04/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-115.00 with risk above 115.00 targeting 112.30-111.50 and 110.60-110.00. Long positions above 112.30-110.00 with targets of 113.00-113.60 and 114.00-114.60-115.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.30-111.50
S2     110.60
S3     110.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00-113.60
R2     114.00
R3     114.50-115.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.334 Buy
20-DMA   113.58 Buy
50-DMA   112.65 Buy
100-DMA   111.72 Buy
200-DMA   111.75 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   24.983 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.110 Sell

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