AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The euro hit a two-month low against the yen on Monday, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s efforts to form a three-way coalition government failed, stoking political uncertainty in the euro zone’s largest economy. Merkel, whose conservatives were weakened after they won an election in September with a reduced number of seats, said she would inform the German president that she could not form a coalition, after the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) withdrew from negotiations. The development leaves Germany with two unprecedented options in the post-World War Two era: Merkel forms a minority government, or the president calls a new election if no government is formed. The euro slid broadly in early Asian trade after the break down of the German coalition talks, but later pared some of its losses. Merkel’s conservative bloc, which won the largest proportion of votes in the September election, will probably be able to form a minority government, said Steven Dooley, currency strategist for Western Union Business Solutions in Melbourne. With the euro hobbled by political uncertainty in Germany, and the outlook for the dollar clouded by factors such as lingering doubts over the prospects for U.S. tax reforms, some market participants said the yen could push higher in the near-term. The near-term focus will be on how European markets react to the political developments in Germany. On U.S. tax reforms, President Donald Trump predicted on Sunday that Senator Jeff Flake will oppose the Republican tax bill, but the senator’s office says he has not yet made up his mind. The position of individual Republican senators on the tax bill has become the focus of those trying to determine whether it will pass because Republicans control only 52 seats in the Senate. More than two Republican defections would likely kill the bill.
  • Gold prices dipped in Asia on Monday as risk trade eased for now and investors awaited more insight on U.S. tax cut plans and related Fed policy. China reported home prices in major Chinese cities remained mostly stable as gains and dips slowed pace in October amid strict government controls. Prices of new residential housing in 13 out of the 15 major cities surveyed, considered the hottest markets, grew less YoY in October, the newspaper said citing data from NBS. Meanwhile, new residential housing prices fell in nine out of these 15 cities in October from September, according to the report. An NBS expert cited in the report said that overall housing prices were stable in major cities as the government imposed curbs take effect. Prices of new residential housing fell 0.1% in October from September in China’s first-tier cities while prices for second-hand homes were flat, according to the report. Ahead, investors will be focused on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for fresh clues on the likely trajectory of monetary policy. U.S. data on durable goods orders will also be closely watched in this holiday-shortened week. Markets stateside will remain closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Last week, gold prices rose on Friday boosted by a weaker dollar which was hit by doubts over whether Republicans can pass a historic tax overhaul. The House of Representatives on Thursday passed a bill that would lower corporate taxes and cut individual taxes for most households in 2018, in a step towards the biggest U.S. tax code overhaul since the 1980s. But the legislation may face a tougher fight in the Senate amid resistance within Republican ranks. Senate lawmakers are expected to vote on their version of the bill after this week’s Thanksgiving holiday. The dollar was also pressured lower by news reports that special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigators probing possible Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election had subpoenaed President Donald Trump’s campaign requesting documents. The reports added to concerns that the probe will hinder the Trump administration’s ability to pass tax reform or other fiscal reform measures that would support the economy. A weaker dollar tends to support gold, which is priced in the U.S. currency and becomes less affordable to foreign buyers when the dollar appreciates. Oil markets were tepid on Monday as traders were reluctant to take on big new positions ahead of an OPEC meeting at the end of the month, when the producer club is expected to decide whether to continue output cuts aimed at propping up prices. Traders said they were avoiding taking on large new positions due to uncertainty in markets. The OPEC, together with a group of non-OPEC producers led by Russia, has been restraining output since the start of this year in a bid to end a global supply overhang and prop up prices. The deal to curb output is due to expire in March 2018, but OPEC will meet on Nov. 30 to discuss the outlook for the policy. OPEC is expected to agree an extension of the cut as storage levels remain high despite recent drawdowns, although there are doubts about the willingness of some participants to continue to restrain output. Morgan Stanley said that the question over extended cuts "has shifted to non-OPEC participants' willingness to extend, primarily Russia". Despite this, Greg McKenna of futures brokerage AxiTrader said it was "worth noting data showed more longs added by the speculative community", indicating expectations of rising prices. In the United States, the number of rigs drilling for new oil production remained unchanged in the week to Nov. 17, at 738, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th November 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,300 1,311-1320 1330
Silver-XAG 17.20 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 57.00 57.75-58.50 59.60
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1800 1.1850 1.1910-1.1990
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3300 1.3360 1.3425
USD/JPY 113.00-113.60 114.00 114.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th November 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,290-1,281 1,274 1,266
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 56.50-56.00 55.40 54.80-54.00
EURO/USD 1.1700 1.1660-1.1590 1.1550
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3150-1.3100 1.3050
USD/JPY 112.00-111.50 110.60 110.60112.00-111.50

Intra-Day Strategy (20th November 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1296.85/oz and low of US$1296.85/oz. Gold was up by 1.219% at US$1294.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1278) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1300-1330 keeping stop loss closing above 1330 and targeting 1290-1281-1274 and 1266-1260. Buy above 1290-1250 with risk below 1250, targeting 1300-1311 and 1321-1330.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,290-1,281
S2     1,274
S3     1,266
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,300
R2     1,311-1320
R3     1330

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.235

Buy
20-DMA   1278.00 Sell
50-DMA  

1287.19

Sell
100-DMA   1280.13 Sell
200-DMA   1264.59 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   73.908 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.288 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.36/oz and low of US$17.01/oz. Silver settled up by 1.40% at US$17.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.20-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.20-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.20
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.036 Buy
20-DMA   16.97 Buy
50-DMA   17.03 Buy
100-DMA   16.90 Buy
200-DMA   17.13 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   70.827 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0275 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$56.66/bbl, intraday low of US$55.17/bbl and settled up by 2.47% to close at US$56.62/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.00-59.00 with stop loss at 59.00; targeting and 56.50-56.00 and 55.40-54.80-54.00. Buy above 56.50-54.00 with risk daily closing below 57.00 and targeting 57.00-57.75 and 58.50-59.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.50-56.00
S2     55.40
S3     54.80-54.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.00
R2     57.75-58.50
R3     59.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.532 Sell
20-DMA   55.27 Buy
50-DMA   52.61 Buy
100-DMA   49.89 Buy
200-DMA   49.67 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   59.854 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.154 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1764/EUR, high of US$1.1821/EUR and settled the day up by 0.186% to close at US$1.1791/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1750-1.2000 targeting 1.1700-1.1660 and 1.590-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2040. Buy above 1.1750-1.1550 with risk below 1.1550 targeting 1.1750-1.1800-1.1850 and 1.1910-1.1990.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1700
S2     1.1660-1.1590
S3     1.1550

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1750-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1910-1.1990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.557 Buy
20-DMA   1.1682 Buy
50-DMA   1.1770 Buy
100-DMA   1.1746 Buy
200-DMA   1.1320 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.936 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0006 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3169/GBP, high of US$1.3259/GBP and settled the day up by 0.144% to close at US$1.3211/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3260-1.3425 with targets at 1.3200-1.3100-1.3050 and 1.3000-1.2950. Buy above 1.3200--1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2950 targeting 1.3260-1.3300 and 1.3360-1.3440.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200
S2     1.3150-1.3100
S3     1.3050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3260-1.3300
R2     1.3360
R3     1.3425

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.900

Buy
20-DMA   1.3170 Sell
50-DMA   1.3255 Sell
100-DMA   1.3119 Buy
200-DMA   1.2886 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.270 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0073 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY111.93/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.13/USD and settled the day down by 0.849% at JPY112.08/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-115.00 with risk above 115.00 targeting 112.30-111.50 and 110.60-110.00. Long positions above 112.30-110.00 with targets of 113.00-113.60 and 114.00-114.60-115.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00-111.50
S2     110.60
S3     110.60112.00-111.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00-113.60
R2     114.00
R3     114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.603 Buy
20-DMA   113.49 Buy
50-DMA   112.70 Buy
100-DMA   111.70 Buy
200-DMA   111.74 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   16.977 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.029 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING