AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks rose to a 10-year high on Tuesday as investors took heart from further evidence of strength in the global economy, while the dollar hovered near a one-week high against its peers thanks to higher U.S. yields and a floundering euro. A woman walks in strong wind caused by Typhoon Lan, past an electronic board showing the graphs of the recent movements of Japan's Nikkei average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, October 23, 2017. Equity markets have enjoyed strong support this year thanks to rising corporate earnings on the back of an improving global economy. German data showed strong industrial activity, while the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the United States rose 1.2% in October, double the rate economists polled by Reuters had expected. The yield has risen as investors priced in more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, while the Treasury is expected to increase debt issuance with a focus on short- and intermediate-dated maturities. The dollar was also lifted as the euro has been weakened by political risks arising from German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s failure to form a three-way coalition government, thrusting Europe’s biggest economy into a political crisis. Merkel, whose conservatives were weakened after they won an election in September with a reduced number of seats, said she would inform the German president that she could not form a coalition, after the pro-business Free Democrats withdrew from negotiations.
  • The dollar gave back some of its gains in Asian trading on Tuesday but stuck close to a one-week high against a basket of currencies as a German political deadlock continued to pressure the euro. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose conservative bloc lost seats in September’s election, said she would inform the German president that she could not form a coalition, after the pro-business Free Democrats withdrew from negotiations. Merkel said she would prefer a new election to ruling with a minority, but Germany’s president told the parties they owed it to voters to try to form a government. U.S. Republicans are not expected to push major tax cuts through Congress this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, who were also sceptical that tax reform would provide a significant boost to the economy. Trading was expected to be relatively thin this week ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, which is also a national holiday in Japan. The calendar is relatively sparse ahead of the holiday, with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen scheduled to give a speech later on Tuesday. Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting will be released on Wednesday. After that meeting, the RBA trimmed its forecasts for core inflation to below its long-term 2-3 percent target band for another two years.
  • Gold prices gained in Asia on Tuesday with risk heightened as President Donald Trump declared North Korea a state sponsor of terrorism, using more stick in dealings with Pyongyang even as contacts are said to be underway to lead to talks. Overnight, gold prices fell on Monday as a slump in the euro amid rising political uncertainty in Germany pushed the dollar to a nearly one-week high dampening demand for the precious metal. Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday that she would prefer new elections rather than lead a minority government after talks to form the country's next government collapsed overnight. That sparked concerns over the future leadership position of chancellor Merkel, pressuring the euro to lows, while supporting an uptick in the dollar to trade higher against a basket of global currencies. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against Also adding to gold weakness was the prospect of higher interest rates as the Federal Reserve’s December 12-13 meeting draws closer amid strong expectations the central bank will raise rates.
  • Crude oil prices rebounded in Asia on Tuesday ahead of weekly industry estimates on U.S. supplies. The API will release its estimates of crude and refined product stocks in the U.S. last week. Analysts expect crude oil supplies fell by 2.167 million barrels, while distillate stocks are seen down by 1.833 million barrels and gasoline inventories are expected up by 900,000 barrels. The estimates will be followed by official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Overnight, crude oil prices settled lower on Monday as traders opted for caution ahead of the OPEC meeting in Vienna, where it’s widely expected that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will agree to extend output curbs. Oil futures added to losses sustained last week as traders opted against initiating bullish bets on oil prices ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Nov. 30. In May, Opec producers agreed to extend production cuts for a period of nine months until March, but stuck to production cuts of 1.2 million bpd agreed in November last year. With a little over a week to go until the Opec meeting, investor expectations of an extension to the deal to curb outputs remained elevated following several weeks of positive comments from OPEC producers. "We're expecting a potential extension of the deal, that's the general market consensus, OPEC knows that it needs to continue doing what it's doing because its targets haven't been reached," said Mustafa Ansari, energy economist at development bank Arab Petroleum Investments Corp.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st November 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,284-1,290 1,300 1,311-1320
Silver-XAG 17.20 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 57.00 57.75-58.50 59.60
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1800 1.1850 1.1910-1.1990
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3300 1.3360 1.3425
USD/JPY 113.00-113.60 114.00 114.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st November 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,274-1,265 1,260 1,252
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 56.00 55.40 54.80-54.00
EURO/USD 1.1700 1.1660-1.1590 1.1550
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3150-1.3100 1.3050
USD/JPY 112.00-111.50 110.60 110.00

Intra-Day Strategy (21st November 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1294.69/oz and low of US$1274.48/oz. Gold was down by 1.301% at US$1276.70/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1278) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1284-1320 keeping stop loss closing above 1320 and targeting 1280-1274 and 1266-1260-1252. Buy above 1280-1250 with risk below 1250, targeting 1300-1311 and 1321-1330.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,274-1,265
S2     1,260
S3     1,252
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,284-1,290
R2     1,300
R3     1,311-1320

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.657

Buy
20-DMA   1277.47 Sell
50-DMA  

1285.87

Sell
100-DMA   1280.55 Sell
200-DMA   1264.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.592 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.788 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$17.29/oz and low of US$16.83/oz. Silver settled down by 2.313% at US$16.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.20-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.20-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.20
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.880 Buy
20-DMA   16.96 Buy
50-DMA   17.01 Buy
100-DMA   16.90 Buy
200-DMA   17.13 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.697 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0035 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$56.91/bbl, intraday low of US$55.73/bbl and settled down by 0.722% to close at US$56.36/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.00-59.00 with stop loss at 59.00; targeting and 56.50-56.00 and 55.40-54.80-54.00. Buy above 56.50-54.00 with risk daily closing below 57.00 and targeting 57.00-57.75 and 58.50-59.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.00
S2     55.40
S3     54.80-54.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.00
R2     57.75-58.50
R3     59.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.434 Sell
20-DMA   55.50 Buy
50-DMA   52.79 Buy
100-DMA   50.19 Buy
200-DMA   49.69 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   72.815 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.129 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1721/EUR, high of US$1.1807/EUR and settled the day up by 0.432% to close at US$1.1732/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1750-1.2000 targeting 1.1700-1.1660 and 1.590-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2040. Buy above 1.1750-1.1550 with risk below 1.1550 targeting 1.1750-1.1800-1.1850 and 1.1910-1.1990.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1700
S2     1.1660-1.1590
S3     1.1550

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1750-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1910-1.1990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.414 Buy
20-DMA   1.1681 Buy
50-DMA   1.1766 Sell
100-DMA   1.1750 Sell
200-DMA   1.1326 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.637 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0006 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3184/GBP, high of US$1.3278/GBP and settled the day up by 0.136% to close at US$1.3233/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3260-1.3425 with targets at 1.3200-1.3100-1.3050 and 1.3000-1.2950. Buy above 1.3200--1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2950 targeting 1.3260-1.3300 and 1.3360-1.3440.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200
S2     1.3150-1.3100
S3     1.3050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3260-1.3300
R2     1.3360
R3     1.3425

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.228

Buy
20-DMA   1.3177 Sell
50-DMA   1.3256 Sell
100-DMA   1.3125 Buy
200-DMA   1.2893 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.585 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY111.87/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.71/USD and settled the day up by 0.445% at JPY112.61/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-115.00 with risk above 115.00 targeting 112.30-111.50 and 110.60-110.00. Long positions above 112.30-110.00 with targets of 113.00-113.60 and 114.00-114.60-115.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00-111.50
S2     110.60
S3     110.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00-113.60
R2     114.00
R3     114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   26.308 Buy
20-DMA   113.45 Buy
50-DMA   112.75 Buy
100-DMA   111.70 Buy
200-DMA   111.73 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   26.326 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.035 Sell

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