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  • The dollar was on the defensive Thursday after suffering its worst drubbing in five months while bonds celebrated a comeback on speculation the Federal Reserve might not tighten U.S. policy as aggressively as previously thought. The dollar’s rout came after minutes of the Fed’s last meeting showed “many participants” were concerned inflation would stay below the bank’s 2 percent target for longer than expected. That echoed comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that she was uncertain about the outlook for inflation and led markets to pare back pricing for more hikes next year. The dollar touched a two-month low against the yen on Thursday, having tumbled after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed some policymakers were concerned about persistently low inflation in a blow to rate hawks. Trading conditions were thinner than usual on Thursday, with Japanese financial markets shut for a public holiday. U.S. markets will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. The minutes of the Fed’s Oct.31-Nov.1 policy meeting released on Wednesday showed that Fed policymakers expect that interest rates will have to be raised in the “near term”, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in December. The minutes, however, also highlighted concern among some of the members over the inflation outlook, with the emphasis placed on economic data in determining the timing of future rate rises. A Fed rate hike in December seems like a “done deal”, said Hirofumi Suzuki, an economist for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore. The focus will be on Fed policymakers’ views on the possible pace of rate hikes in 2018, especially after Jerome Powell takes over as Fed chair from Janet Yellen, Suzuki said. Powell must be confirmed by the Senate before assuming his new post. Given the debate within the Fed about low inflation, there are doubts as to just how much the U.S. central bank will be able to raise interest rates, Suzuki added.
  • Many Federal Reserve policymakers expect that interest rates will have to be raised in the “near term,” according to the minutes of the U.S. central bank’s last policy meeting released on Wednesday. The readout from the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting, at which the Fed kept rates unchanged, also showed policymakers generally agreed the economy was poised for strong growth. Several Fed officials also saw improved chances that the U.S. Congress would pass significant tax cuts that would boost business investment. While some policymakers said they still needed to see more data before deciding the timing of a rate hike, many of the officials said the jobless rate appeared to be too low for inflation to remain at its current weak level. The central bank has increased rates four times in a tightening cycle that began in late 2015. The Fed currently predicts one more rate rise this year and three more hikes in 2018. The meeting marked one of the last policy reviews to be attended by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who announced on Monday she would resign from her seat on the Fed’s Board of Governors once Jerome Powell is confirmed and sworn in to replace her as head of the central bank. President Donald Trump nominated Powell, who is expected to be in place when Yellen’s four-year term as Fed chief ends in February. In the minutes, policymakers engaged in what has become a regular debate over why inflation has remained below the Fed’s 2 percent target for several years. Most agreed that tightness in the labor market would likely fuel higher inflation in the medium term. Some of the members who vote on policy, however, expressed concern over the inflation outlook, according to the minutes. These policymakers emphasized they would be looking at upcoming economic data before deciding the timing of future rate rises. A couple of policymakers were concerned enough about persistently weak price gains that they suggested the Fed consider a new framework in which it committed to allowing higher inflation to make up for periods of low price rises. Oil prices eased on Thursday, with U.S. crude dipping away from two-year highs reached the day before, but the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline and a drawdown in fuel inventories continued to bolster markets despite worries over rising output. WTI has been buoyed by the shutdown of the 590,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Keystone pipeline, one of the largest crude pipelines from Canada to the United States, as well as by another drawdown in commercial fuel inventories that came despite record U.S. oil production. U.S. crude inventories C-STK-T-EIA fell 1.9 million barrels in the week to Nov. 17, to 457.14 million barrels. Stocks have dropped by 15 percent from their records in March, to below 2016 levels. The tightening U.S. oil market means the WTI forward price curve has moved from contango, when prices for future delivery are more expensive than those for immediate dispatch, into backwardation, where spot prices are higher than those for later delivery Backwardation indicates a tightening market as it incentivises traders to sell oil immediately instead of putting it into storage. Markets are also tightening globally due to an effort led by the OPEC and a group of non-OPEC producers, including Russia, to withhold output. The deal to curb production is due to expire in March 2018, but OPEC will meet on Nov. 30 to discuss the outlook for the policy, and it is expected to extend the cuts. Top exporter and de-facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia is lobbying for extended output restrictions. Threatening to undermine OPEC’s efforts, however, is U.S. production C-OUT-T-EIA, which has risen by 15 percent since mid-2016 to a record 9.66 million bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd November 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,290 1,300 1,311-1320
Silver-XAG 17.20 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 58.50-59.00 59.60 60.50
EURO/USD 1.1850 1.1910-1.1990 1.1205
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3300 1.3360 1.3425
USD/JPY 111.50-112.00 113.00 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd November 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,284 1,274-1,265 1,260
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 57.75-57.00 56.00 55.40-54.80
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1750 1.1700 1.1660-1.1590
GBP/USD 1.3240-1.3200 1.3050 1.3050
USD/JPY 00-110.60 110.00 109.10

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd November 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1294.60/oz and low of US$1278.97/oz. Gold was up by 0.888% at US$1291.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1278) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1290-1320 keeping stop loss closing above 1320 and targeting 1284-1280-1274 and 1266-1260. Buy above 1284-1250 with risk below 1250, targeting 1300-1311 and 1321-1330.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,284
S2     1,274-1,265
S3     1,260
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,290
R2     1,300
R3     1,311-1320

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.104

Buy
20-DMA   1279.31 Sell
50-DMA  

1284.45

Sell
100-DMA   1281.85 Sell
200-DMA   1265.39 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.962 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.785 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$17.15/oz and low of US$16.92/oz. Silver settled up by 1.181% at US$17.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.20-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.20-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.20
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.612 Buy
20-DMA   16.99 Buy
50-DMA   16.98 Buy
100-DMA   16.93 Buy
200-DMA   17.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.293 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0015 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$58.13/bbl, intraday low of US$57.01/bbl and settled down by 1.664% to close at US$58.04/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.75-60.50 with stop loss at 60.50; targeting and 57.00-56.00 and 56.50-56.00-55.40. Buy above 57.00-54.80 with risk daily closing below 54.80 and targeting 57.75- 58.50 and 59.60-60.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.75-57.00
S2     56.00
S3     55.40-54.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.50-59.00
R2     59.60
R3     60.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.309 Sell
20-DMA   56.08 Buy
50-DMA   53.14 Buy
100-DMA   50.45 Buy
200-DMA   49.74 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   94.303 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.282 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1732/EUR, high of US$1.1826/EUR and settled the day up by 0.715% to close at US$1.1821/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1850-1.1990 targeting 1.1750-1.1700-1.1660 and 1.590-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2040. Buy above 1.1800-1.1550 with risk below 1.1550 targeting 1.1850-1.1910 and 1.1990-1.2050.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1750
S2     1.1700
S3     1.1660-1.1590

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850
R2     1.1910-1.1990
R3     1.1205

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   5.754 Buy
20-DMA   1.1690 Buy
50-DMA   1.1762 Sell
100-DMA   1.1759 Sell
200-DMA   1.1338 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.491 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0015 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3212/GBP, high of US$1.3328/GBP and settled the day up by 0.030% to close at US$1.3323/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3260-1.3425 with targets at 1.3200-1.3100-1.3050 and 1.3000-1.2950. Buy above 1.3200--1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2950 targeting 1.3260-1.3300 and 1.3360-1.3440.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3240-1.3200
S2     1.3050
S3     1.3050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3260-1.3300
R2     1.3360
R3     1.3425

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.501

Buy
20-DMA   1.3187 Sell
50-DMA   1.3256 Sell
100-DMA   1.3132 Buy
200-DMA   1.2902 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.338 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0019 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.13/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.48/USD and settled the day down by 1.08% at JPY111.20/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.00-110.60 and 110.00-109.10. Long positions above 111.0-109.10 with targets of 111.50-112.00 and 113.00-113.60-114.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     00-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.50-112.00
R2     113.00
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.972 Buy
20-DMA   113.18 Buy
50-DMA   112.79 Buy
100-DMA   111.66 Buy
200-DMA   111.71 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   13.495 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.287 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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