AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares were mixed on Friday with concerns eased in China after a late sharp selloff overnight linked to 10-year government bond yields crossing 4% though trading was thin without a US lead. A mix of tighter lending rules and firmer bond prices were seen as reasons for declines in the last session. Market watchers said shares that were sold off on Thursday had in fact risen in the past weeks and continued to possess relatively good fundamentals despite falling on Thursday. The dollar wobbled in thin trading on Friday, on track for losses against most rivals in a holiday-shortened week as it remained under pressure on the Federal Reserve's cautious view on low U.S. inflation U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, which was also a national holiday in Japan. The dollar skidded on Wednesday after minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting showed some policymakers fretting over stubbornly weak inflation. That led some to question expectations of hikes in 2018. The core personal consumption expenditures price index has consistently fallen short of the central bank's 2 percent target for over five years, even as the Fed has moved toward normalizing policy. The low-yielding yen, which tends to gain as a perceived safe haven in times of market risk aversion, was underpinned by concerns about a precipitous tumble in Chinese stocks. U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday promised "big, beautiful fat tax cuts" in his Thanksgiving message, though a majority of economists in a recent Reuters poll predicted U.S. Republicans are not expected to push the tax cuts through Congress this year. Economists are also skeptical that the legislation would provide a significant boost to the economy. The single currency got a boost from European business surveys, which pointed to a strengthening growth outlook for the region. Figures tracking both the services and manufacturing industries in Europe were better than expected.
  • Gold prices gained slightly in Asia on Friday as concerns over a sharp selloff in China overnight eased and investors turned focus to the U.S. and next week's Senate review of proposed tax cuts Overnight, gold prices held steady in holiday-thinned trade on Thursday, after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting pushed the U.S. dollar, lending support to the precious metal. The greenback weakened after the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting showed that some policymakers remain concerned over persistently low inflation. The report also showed that the Fed expects to raise interest rates in the "near term", adding to expectations for a December rate hike. However, the central bank added that economic data will determine the timing of future rate hikes, which could mean a slower pace than expected for 2018. Gold is sensitive to moves in both U.S. rates and the dollar. A weaker dollar makes gold less expensive for holders of foreign currency, while a rise in U.S. rates lifts the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. Another factor for rate hikes is whether the US Congress manages to pass a tax package this year, with a U.S. House of Representatives version and one in the Senate at odds on key points.
  • Crude oil prices were narrowly mixed in Asia on Friday coming off a US holiday and cautious ahead of a key OPEC review of oil output curbs next week. The US rig count rose by nine to 747 in the week ended Nov. 22, Baker Hughes said in an early release of weekly figures ahead of the Thanksgiving holidays, with the monthly rig count rising for the first time since July as crude prices traded near their highest levels since the summer of 2015. A total of 10 rigs were added for the month. Overnight, crude oil prices bounced higher on Thursday, erasing earlier losses as optimism that the market is rebalancing resurfaced in holiday-thinned trade. Also adding to positive sentiment on oil prices was an announcement by TransCanada revealing that it would slash oil deliveries to the United States by 85% or more on its keystone crude pipeline. The line, which links Alberta's oil sands to U.S. refineries, was shut last week following a 5,000-barrel spill in South Dakota. Trade volumes were light on Thursday, with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Crude prices climbed after after the EIA reported on Wednesday that crude oil inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels last week, marking the first decline in three weeks. That was compared with analysts' expectations for a decline of 1.5 million barrels. Prices received additional support from growing signals that the OPEC and its allies will agree to prolong supply curbs beyond March when producers meet in Vienna next week. Top crude exporter Saudi Arabia is lobbying oil ministers to agree on a nine-month extension to OPEC-led supply cuts, sources familiar with the matter said, as Riyadh seeks to ensure a price-sapping glut is eradicated. OPEC, together with a group of non-OPEC producers led by Russia, has been restraining output since the start of this year in a bid to end a global supply overhang and prop up prices. The deal to curb output is due to expire in March 2018, but OPEC will meet on Nov. 30 to discuss the outlook for the policy.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th November 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,300 1,311-1320 1,326
Silver-XAG 17.20 17.50-18.00 18.60
Crude Oil 58.50-59.00 59.60 60.50
EURO/USD 1.1850 1.1910-1.1990 1.1205
GBP/USD 1.3300 1.3360 1.3425-1.3500
USD/JPY 111.50-112.00 113.00 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th November 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,290 1,284 1,274-1,265
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 57.75-57.00 56.00 55.40-54.80
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1750 1.1700 1.1660-1.1590
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3200 1.3150 1.3050
USD/JPY 111.00-110.60 110.00 109.10

Intra-Day Strategy (24th November 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1293.50/oz and low of US$1286.96/oz. Gold was up by 0.081% at US$1290.99/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1278) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1290-1320 keeping stop loss closing above 1320 and targeting 1284-1280-1274 and 1266-1260. Buy above 1284-1250 with risk below 1250, targeting 1300-1311 and 1321-1330.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,290
S2     1,284
S3     1,274-1,265
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,300
R2     1,311-1320
R3     1,326

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.702

Buy
20-DMA   1280.31 Sell
50-DMA  

1283.92

Sell
100-DMA   1282.66 Sell
200-DMA   1265.66 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.692 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.526 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.14/oz and low of US$17.05/oz. Silver settled up by 1.181% at US$17.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.20-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.20-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.20
R2     17.50-18.00
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.612 Buy
20-DMA   17.00 Buy
50-DMA   16.97 Buy
100-DMA   16.94 Buy
200-DMA   17.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.120 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0015 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$58.56/bbl, intraday low of US$57.01/bbl and settled down by 0.896% to close at US$58.54/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 58.50-60.50 with stop loss at 60.50; targeting and 57.75-57.00-56.00 and 56.50-55.40. Buy above 57.75-54.80 with risk daily closing below 54.80 and targeting 57.75- 58.50 and 59.60-60.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.75-57.00
S2     56.00
S3     55.40-54.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.50-59.00
R2     59.60
R3     60.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.477 Sell
20-DMA   56.32 Buy
50-DMA   53.33 Buy
100-DMA   50.59 Buy
200-DMA   49.76 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   97.450 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.373 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1812/EUR, high of US$1.1855/EUR and settled the day up by 0.236% to close at US$1.1849/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1850-1.1990 targeting 1.1750-1.1700-1.1660 and 1.590-1.1555 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2040. Buy above 1.1800-1.1550 with risk below 1.1550 targeting 1.1850-1.1910 and 1.1990-1.2050.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1750
S2     1.1700
S3     1.1660-1.1590

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850
R2     1.1910-1.1990
R3     1.1205

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.244 Buy
20-DMA   1.1703 Buy
50-DMA   1.1761 Sell
100-DMA   1.1764 Sell
200-DMA   1.1344 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   95.278 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0015 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3283/GBP, high of US$1.3336/GBP and settled the day down by 0.135% to close at US$1.3305/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3260-1.3425 with targets at 1.3200-1.3100-1.3050 and 1.3000-1.2950. Buy above 1.3200--1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2950 targeting 1.3260-1.3300 and 1.3360-1.3440.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3260-1.3200
S2     1.3150
S3     1.3050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300
R2     1.3360
R3     1.3425-1.3500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.85

Buy
20-DMA   1.3195 Sell
50-DMA   1.3250 Sell
100-DMA   1.3136 Buy
200-DMA   1.2906 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.118 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0019 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY111.06/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.37/USD and settled the day down by 0.005% at JPY111.19/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.00-110.60 and 110.00-109.10. Long positions above 111.0-109.10 with targets of 111.50-112.00 and 113.00-113.60-114.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.50-112.00
R2     113.00
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.972 Buy
20-DMA   113.18 Buy
50-DMA   112.79 Buy
100-DMA   111.66 Buy
200-DMA   111.71 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   13.495 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.287 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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