Daily Market Lookup

• Asian stocks surrendered early modest gains and retreated from a decade high on Monday, weighed by weakness in the Chinese and South Korean markets, while the euro reached a two-month top against the dollar. The index rose to its highest since 2007 on Thursday as equity markets have enjoyed strong support this year thanks to corporate earnings rising on the back of an improving global economy. Chinese shares were already on a shaky footing after last week, hurt by a rout in the domestic bond market and fresh moves to reduce risks in the asset management industry that may bring a sea change for banks. (SS) The common currency rode on momentum from Friday after data showed German business confidence hit a record high in November, a sign the European Union's largest economy is on track for a boom. The euro was also helped by Germany's Social Democrats' agreement on Friday to hold talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel on renewing their outgoing coalition government. Political uncertainty in Germany stemming from Merkel's apparent failure to form a governing coalition talks knocked the euro early last week. China's industrial profits rose 25.1 percent year-on-year in October, compared with a 27.27 percent jump in September, buoyed largely by higher commodity prices. Despite the modest slowdown, October's growth rate was still the second-highest for a single month this year.
• The euro hit a two-month high versus the dollar and held firm against other major currencies on Monday thanks to strong German business confidence and reduced anxiety about political instability in Europe's biggest economy. The euro rose to 133.24 yen (EURJPY=R), its highest since Nov 16 and it firmed on the British pound to 0.8978 pound (EURGBP=D4), edging to near this month's peak of 0.9014. The German business confidence index compiled by the Ifo economic institute hit a record high in November, in another sign of strong growth in the euro zone's largest economy. The upbeat data was followed by positive political developments after German Chancellor Angela Merkel - whose chances for a fourth term were plunged into doubt a week ago when three-way coalition talks with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens collapsed - was handed a political lifeline by the Social Democrats (SDP). That helped ease worries about political instability in the country as Leaders Merkel's conservative party agreed on Sunday to pursue a "grand coalition" with the SPD. In contrast, the dollar lacked momentum of its own as persistently low inflation is seen as undermining the case for the Federal Reserve's rate hikes. Market players are looking to the Congressional hearing on Fed Chair nominee Jerome Powell on Tuesday. President Donald Trump's tax reform plan is also in focus. Trump is due to meet Senate Republicans on Tuesday to discuss the party's efforts to pass tax reform legislation. Because the yen is often used as a funding currency for investment in riskier assets, it tends to be bought back when risk sentiment sours. S&P Global Ratings downgraded South African local currency debt to "junk" territory on Friday, citing a further deterioration in the country's economic outlook and public finances, sending the rand tumbling. But Moody's decision to only place South Africa on review for a downgrade, rather than a cut, cushioned the blow, helping the rand to recoup some of Friday's losses.
• U.S. oil prices dipped on Monday, easing from two-year highs on the prospect of increased U.S. output, although global markets were slightly better supported by expectations an OPEC-led supply cut will be extended. U.S. crude production has risen by 15 percent since mid-2016 to 9.66 million barrels per day (bpd), not far from top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia, and increasing drilling activity for new production means output is expected to grow further, traders said. U.S. energy companies last week added oil rigs, with the monthly rig count rising for the first time since July, to 747 active rigs, as producers are attracted by climbing crude prices. WTI touched a 2015 high on Friday at $59.05 a barrel, partly driven higher by the closure of the 590,000 bpd Keystone pipeline connecting Canada's oil sand fields with the United States following a spill, which reduced stocks. In global markets, Brent crude oil futures were stronger than WTI due to an effort by the OPEC and a group of other producers, including Russia, to withhold 1.8 million bpd of output since January. The deal to cut output expires in March 2018, but OPEC will meet on Nov. 30 to discuss its policy. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that Russia would discuss the details of an extension on Nov. 30, but made no mention of how long this should last beyond its March expiry. The uncertainty of how committed Russia is to ongoing cuts, as well as rising production in the United States, mean crude prices are being prevented from rising much further, traders said. Analysts also noted technical chart indicators that implied crude oil futures were in for a downward correction.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1293.14/oz and low of US$1285.62/oz. Gold was up by 0.223% at US$1288.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1278) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1290-1320 keeping stop loss closing above 1320 and targeting 1284-1280-1274 and 1266-1260. Buy above 1284-1250 with risk below 1250, targeting 1300-1311 and 1321-1330.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.14/oz and low of US$16.96/oz. Silver settled down by 0.117% at US$17.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.00 targeting 17.20-17.50-17.70 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.20-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.80-16.50 and 16.00-15.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$59.01/bbl, intraday low of US$58.34/bbl and settled up by 0.780% to close at US$58.95/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 59.00-60.50 with stop loss at 60.50; targeting and 57.75-57.00-56.00 and 56.50-55.40. Buy above 57.75-54.80 with risk daily closing below 54.80 and targeting 57.75- 58.50 and 59.60-60.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1836/EUR, high of US$1.1943/EUR and settled the day up by 0.700% to close at US$1.1932/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1930-1.12090 targeting 1.1850-1.1800-1.1750 and 1.1700-1.1660-1.1590 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2040. Buy above 1.1850-1.1700 with risk below 1.1700 targeting 1.1930-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3278/GBP, high of US$1.3358/GBP and settled the day up by 0.202% to close at US$1.3332/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3360-1.3570 with targets at 1.3300-1.3260-1.3200 and 1.3100-1.3050. Buy above 1.3300--1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2950 targeting 1.3260-1.3300 and 1.3360-1.3440.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.18/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.61/USD and settled the day up by 0.287% at JPY111.51/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.00-110.60 and 110.00-109.10. Long positions above 111.0-109.10 with targets of 111.50-112.00 and 113.00-113.60-114.00 with stop below 116.00.