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Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter, notching its quickest pace in three years, buoyed by robust business spending on equipment and an accumulation of inventories. GDP expanded at a 3.3% annual rate last quarter also boosted by a rebound in government investment. That was the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2014 and a pickup from the second quarter’s 3.1%. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 3.0% pace in the July-September period. It was the first time since 2014 that the economy experienced growth of 3 percent or more for two straight quarters. The growth pace, however, likely exaggerates the health of the economy as inventories, goods yet to be sold, accounted for nearly a quarter of GDP growth. Excluding inventory investment, the economy grew at a 2.5%. When measured from the income side, output also expanded at a 2.5%. Fed Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers on Wednesday “the economic expansion is increasingly broad based across sectors,” and that she expected that “the economy will continue to expand.” Prices for U.S. Treasuries fell on the data and Yellen’s remarks. The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies, while stocks were mixed. The government said after-tax corporate profits surged at a 5.8% last quarter after rising at only a 0.1% pace in the second quarter. Undistributed profits jumped at a 13.9% after declining for two straight quarters, suggesting that companies were anticipating deep tax cuts. Businesses accumulated inventories at a $39.0 bn pace in the third quarter, instead of the previously reported $35.8 bn rate. As a result, inventory investment contributed 0.8% to third-quarter GDP growth, up from the previously reported 0.73%. The Fed on Wednesday in its Beige Book report of anecdotal information on business activity collected from contacts nationwide described economic activity as having “continued to increase at a modest to moderate pace in October and mid-November.” Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, was revised down to a 2.3% in the third quarter from the previously reported 2.4% pace. Consumer spending increased at a robust 3.3% in the second quarter.
  • Gold prices gained in Asia on Thursday with comments from US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley suggesting a complete oil embargo on North Korea, raising risk concerns. Elsewhere, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in November, a faster pace than expected 51.4 level expected while non-manufacturing also gained to 54.8 from 54.3 in October, official data released Thursday showed. The release of a private PMI survey may paint a better picture of the economic situation in China. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI is expected to be published on Friday, with the services PMI reading coming next Tuesday. The private surveys tend to focus on small and mid-sized firms. Earlier, Japan reported provisional industrial production for October up 0.5%, compared with a provisional gain of 1.9% expected on month. Australia reported building approvals for October rose 0.9%, compared with a 1.8% fall expected and private sector credit hit a 0.4% gain seen on month. Overnight, gold prices came under pressure on Wednesday as Treasury yields rose on hawkish comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen and upbeat economic data. Federal chair Janet Yellen testified on the economic outlook before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday, reaffirming that the Fed would continue to hike rates amid concerns of the economy overheating. Market participants took Yellen’s comments to be somewhat hawkish, prompting a surge in U.S. Gold is sensitive to moves higher in both bond yields and the U.S. dollar – A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency while a rise in U.S. rates, lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. Also weighing on gold prices was data indicating underlying strength in the U.S. economy as third quarter economic growth remained solid. GDP increased at a 3.3% annual rate in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate of GDP on Wednesday, beating a previous estimate of 3%.
  • Crude oil prices rebounded mildly in Asia on Thursday as the market awaits full details of a widely expected extension of OPEC-led output curbs - albeit with a few wrinkles. OPEC and key ally Russia will extend output curbs for nine months, but likely review the deal in June of 2018 depending on market conditions, according to reports. Six ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia met in Vienna on Wednesday and decided to extends the oil output curbs of 1.8mn bpd to the end of 2018 - and discussed other related matters without detailing them. A formal announcement on the pact will be made on Thursday.
  • A concern is a significant supply response from US shale drillers and other key producers if oil drifts much higher than current levels. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that a more nuanced plan was possible. One area that may surprise on the upside is if OPEC members Nigeria and Libya output are asked to cap output at 1.8 mn bpd and 1 mn bpd respectively for the nine months after receiving exemptions for the earlier curbs from January 2017 to March 2018. Overnight, crude oil prices settled lower on Wednesday after data showing crude stockpiles fell for the second straight week failed to offset an unexpected build in product inventories ahead of the OPEC meeting. Crude oil prices came under pressure after a mostly bearish EIA inventory report showed crude stockpiles fell more-than-estimated, but both gasoline and distillates supplies unexpectedly rose. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 3.4 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 24, beating expectations of a draw of 2.3 mn barrels. Gasoline inventories – one of the products that crude is refined into – rose by 3.6 mn barrels, well above expectations for rise of 1.2 million barrels, while supplies of distillate – the class of fuels that includes diesel and heating oil – unexpectedly rose by about 2.8 barrels, missing expectations for a draw of 230K barrels. U.S. crude oil production has risen more than 15% to 9.66 mn bpd since mid-2016, not far from top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th November 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,284-1,290 1,300 1,311-1320
Silver-XAG 16.90-17.20 17.50 18.00-18.60
Crude Oil 58.50 59.00-59.60 60.50
EURO/USD 1.1930-1.1990 1.2090 1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3500-1.3570 1.3600 1.3660
USD/JPY 111.50-112.00 113.00 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th November 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,280 1,274-1,266 1,254
Silver-XAG 16.50 16.35-16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 57.50 57.00 56.00-55.40
EURO/USD 1.1850 1.1800-1.1750 1.1700
GBP/USD 1.3425-1.3360 1.3300 1.3260-1.3200
USD/JPY 111.00-110.60 110.00 109.10

Intra-Day Strategy (30th November 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1297.33/oz and low of US$1286.62/oz. Gold was down by 0.007% at US$1293.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1278) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1290-1320 keeping stop loss closing above 1320 and targeting 1280-1274 and 1266-1260. Buy above 1280-1250 with risk below 1250, targeting 1290-1300-1311 and 1321-1330.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,280
S2     1,274-1,266
S3     1,254
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,284-1,290
R2     1,300
R3     1,311-1320

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.667

Buy
20-DMA   1282.21 Sell
50-DMA  

1283.25

Sell
100-DMA   1284.19 Sell
200-DMA   1266.23 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.7623 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.613 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$16.90/oz and low of US$16.50/oz. Silver settled down by 1.959% at US$16.51/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.00 targeting 16.90-17.20-17.50 and 18.00-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-19.00 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.50-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50
S2     16.35-16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.90-17.20
R2     17.50
R3     18.00-18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.555 Buy
20-DMA   16.96 Sell
50-DMA   16.94 Sell
100-DMA   16.98 Sell
200-DMA   17.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   6.599 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0156 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$58.28/bbl, intraday low of US$56.74/bbl and settled down by 0.606% to close at US$57.37/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 58.50-60.50 with stop loss at 60.50; targeting and 57.70-57.00-56.00 and 56.50-55.40. Buy above 57.50-54.80 with risk daily closing below 54.80 and targeting 58.50- 59.60 and 60.50-61.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.50
S2     57.00
S3     56.00-55.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.50
R2     59.00-59.60
R3     60.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.375 Sell
20-DMA   56.98 Buy
50-DMA   53.90 Buy
100-DMA   51.08 Buy
200-DMA   49.84 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   31.804 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.153 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1816/EUR, high of US$1.1882/EUR and settled the day down by 0.479% to close at US$1.1846/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1930-1.12090 targeting 1.1850-1.1800-1.1750 and 1.1700-1.1660-1.1590 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2040. Buy above 1.1850-1.1700 with risk below 1.1700 targeting 1.1930-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1850
S2     1.1800-1.1750
S3     1.1700

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1930-1.1990
R2     1.2090
R3     1.2090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.035 Buy
20-DMA   1.1752 Buy
50-DMA   1.1758 Sell
100-DMA   1.1773 Sell
200-DMA   1.1357 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   72.513 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0037 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3332/GBP, high of US$1.3447/GBP and settled the day up by 0.570% to close at US$1.3408/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3500-1.3660 with targets at 1.3425-1.3360 and 1.3300-1.3260- 1.3200. Buy above 1.3425-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.3200 targeting 1.3425-1.3500 and 1.3570-1.3650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3425-1.3360
S2     1.3300
S3     1.3260-1.3200

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3500-1.3570
R2     1.3600
R3     1.3660

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.672

Buy
20-DMA   1.3233 Sell
50-DMA   1.3240 Sell
100-DMA   1.3156 Buy
200-DMA   1.2924 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.875 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0053 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.28/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.14/USD and settled the day up by 0.385% at JPY111.89/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.00-110.60 and 110.00-109.10. Long positions above 111.0-109.10 with targets of 111.50-112.00 and 113.00-113.60-114.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.50-112.00
R2     113.00
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.831 Buy
20-DMA   112.99 Buy
50-DMA   112.80 Buy
100-DMA   111.61 Buy
200-DMA   111.69 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   17.064 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.287 Sell

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