AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar bounced to a two-week top on Monday and S&P futures jumped as traders marked the passage of a Senate tax bill over the weekend, a move that raises the risk of more aggressive rate hikes in the world’s largest economy. A woman walks in strong wind caused by Typhoon Lan, past an electronic board showing the graphs of the recent movements of Japan's. Traders will be focusing their attention on a meeting scheduled for British Prime Minister Theresa May and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to work on a Brexit deal. The greenback jumped 0.7 percent JPY= to as far as 112.98 yen, the highest since Nov. 17 on expectations of faster U.S. rate hikes as fiscal policy was set to be eased even while the U.S. economy was running at or near full employment. A U.S. tax cut could also boost corporate profits and lead to a slew of share buy-backs. U.S. stock markets have already rallied for months on hopes that Washington would provide significant tax cuts for corporations. The dollar was broadly higher on Monday, reaching a 2-1/2-week peak against the yen, lifted after the U.S. Senate approved a tax overhaul at the weekend. The Senate's approval on Saturday moves Republicans and President Donald Trump a big step closer to their goal of slashing taxes in what would be the largest change to U.S. tax laws since the 1980s. The dollar has drawn support on expectations that tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy would stimulate the U.S. economy, and also drive Treasury yields higher, as the government becomes more dependent on debt due to reduced tax income. Talks will begin, likely this week, between the Senate and the House, which already has approved its own version of the legislation, to reconcile their respective bills. Other currencies slipped against the dollar but the pound got away relatively unscathed thanks to the prospect of Britain's divorce talks with the European Union making further progress. In focus was a meeting between British Prime Minister Theresa May, EU chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker and his chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier on Monday, which will mark the "absolute deadline" for London to deliver "sufficient progress" in its divorce offer as set by European Council President Donald Tusk.
  • old prices dipped on Monday in Asia as expectations that US tax cuts are closer to passage and as news on the politics surrounding the investigation of Russian meddling in the 2016 election was mulled. Senate Republicans narrowly passed a bill to overhaul the U.S. tax system in the wee hours of Saturday. The GOP still needs to overcome significant disagreements for the House and Senate to craft a joint bill in a process called resolution and send it to Trump's desk. Republicans hope to reach a deal by Christmas. The ABC report was later corrected the story to say its source had clarified that Trump gave Flynn the directive "shortly after the election" to discuss strategies for fighting the Islamic State extremist group. This week, interest rate reviews in Australia and Canada will be closely watched. Last week, gold prices ended higher and the dollar weaker on Friday after Flynn pleaded to lying to the Federal Bureau of Investigation about his communications with the Russian ambassador to the U.S. in December 2016. He also admitted to speaking with a top member of the Trump transition team regarding his communications with the Russian ambassador. A weaker dollar typically tends to support gold, which is denominated in the U.S. currency and becomes more affordable to foreign buyers when the dollar declines. The Trump administration has said its tax cuts will generate growth and spark inflation, which investors expect will prompt a faster pace of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Expectations for higher interest rates are typically negative for gold as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets like Treasury’s when borrowing costs rise.
  • Oil fell on Monday after U.S. shale drillers added more rigs last week, but prices still held close to their highest since mid-2015, supported by an extension of output cuts agreed last week by OPEC and other producers. Drillers in the United States added two oil rigs in the week to Dec. 1, bringing the total count up to 749, highest since September, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report late on Friday. The U.S. rig count, an early indicator of future output, gained sharply from 477 rigs active a year ago after energy companies boosted spending plans for 2017. Drillers over 2017 were encouraged to increase activity as crude prices started recovering from a multi-year price slump around the same time that the OPEC and some non-OPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to production cuts a year ago. Last week, the producers agreed to extend those cuts of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of next year. The latest agreement allows for producers to exit the deal early if the market overheats. Russian officials had expressed concern that extending the output cuts might encourage rival U.S. shale oil firms to pump more crude. Rising U.S. production has been a persistent thorn in OPEC's side and the rig increased for a second straight week. U.S. output rose in September to 9.5 million bpd, the highest monthly output since 9.6 million bpd in April 2015, according to government data going back to 2005. On an annual basis, U.S. output peaked at 9.6 million bpd in 1970.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th December 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,280 1,284-1,290 1,311
Silver-XAG 16.50-16.90 17.20 17.50-18.00
Crude Oil 58.50 59.00-59.60 60.50
EURO/USD 1.1930-1.1990 1.2050 1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3500-1.3570 1.3600 1.3660
USD/JPY 113.00 114.00 114.75-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th December 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,272-1,266 1,254 1,239
Silver-XAG 16.35-16.00 15.60 15.20
Crude Oil 57.50 57.00 56.00-55.40
EURO/USD 1.1850 1.1800-1.1750 1.1700
GBP/USD 1.3425-1.3360 1.3260-1.3200 1.3260-1.3200
USD/JPY 112.50-111.90 111.00 110.20

Intra-Day Strategy (4th December 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1289.07/oz and low of US$1271.53/oz. Gold was up by 0.424% at US$1293.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1278) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1284-1320 keeping stop loss closing above 1320 and targeting 1274-1266-1260 and 1254-1240. Buy above 1270-1250 with risk below 1250, targeting 1284-1290-1300 and 1311-1321.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,272-1,266
S2     1,254
S3     1,239
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,280
R2     1,284-1,290
R3     1,311

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.623

Buy
20-DMA   1282.72 Sell
50-DMA  

1282.88

Sell
100-DMA   1284.82 Sell
200-DMA   1266.47 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.650 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.978 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.54/oz and low of US$16.23/oz. Silver settled down by 0.001% at US$16.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.35-15.00 targeting 16.50-16.90-17.20 and 17.50-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.50-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.35-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50-16.90
R2     17.20
R3     17.50-18.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.060 Buy
20-DMA   16.89 Sell
50-DMA   16.91 Sell
100-DMA   16.98 Sell
200-DMA   17.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.075 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1338 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$58.86/bbl, intraday low of US$57.27/bbl and settled up by 1.65% to close at US$58.27/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 58.50-60.50 with stop loss at 60.50; targeting and 57.70-57.00-56.00 and 56.50-55.40. Buy above 57.50-54.80 with risk daily closing below 54.80 and targeting 58.50- 59.60 and 60.50-61.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.50
S2     57.00
S3     56.00-55.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.50
R2     59.00-59.60
R3     60.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.664 Sell
20-DMA   57.14 Buy
50-DMA   54.17 Buy
100-DMA   51.32 Buy
200-DMA   49.88 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.359 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.096 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1850/EUR, high of US$1.1940/EUR and settled the day down by 0.058% to close at US$1.1895/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1930-1.12090 targeting 1.1850-1.1800-1.1750 and 1.1700-1.1660-1.1590 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2040. Buy above 1.1850-1.1700 with risk below 1.1700 targeting 1.1930-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1850
S2     1.1800-1.1750
S3     1.1700

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1930-1.1990
R2     1.2050
R3     1.2090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.947 Buy
20-DMA   1.1781 Buy
50-DMA   1.1756 Sell
100-DMA   1.1791 Sell
200-DMA   1.1383 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.426 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0043 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3443/GBP, high of US$1.3548/GBP and settled the day down by 0.377% to close at US$1.3471/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3500-1.3660 with targets at 1.3425-1.3360 and 1.3300-1.3260- 1.3200. Buy above 1.3425-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.3200 targeting 1.3425-1.3500 and 1.3570-1.3650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3425-1.3360
S2     1.3260-1.3200
S3     1.3260-1.3200

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3500-1.3570
R2     1.3600
R3     1.3660

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.808

Buy
20-DMA   1.3270 Sell
50-DMA   1.3240 Sell
100-DMA   1.3165 Buy
200-DMA   1.2935 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.288 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0069 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.40/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.87/USD and settled the day down by 0.310% at JPY112.17/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.50-111.90 and 111.00-110.20. Long positions above 112.50-110.10 with targets of 113.00-113.60-114.00 and 114.75-115.50 with stop below 115.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.50-111.90
S2     111.00
S3     110.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00
R2     114.00
R3     114.75-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.831 Buy
20-DMA   112.99 Buy
50-DMA   112.80 Buy
100-DMA   111.61 Buy
200-DMA   111.69 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   17.064 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.287 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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