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  • Asian stocks slipped on Wednesday, dragged by losses on Wall Street as the technology sector stuttered yet again after a brief rebound, while the dollar sagged on lower long-term U.S. yields. Fed funds futures prices showed that investors see a rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 12-13 meeting as a done deal with much of the focus now on the outlook for rates in 2018 and beyond. The U.S. trade deficit increased to a nine-month high in October due to rising oil prices and the widening of America’s long-standing deficits with China and Mexico. The worsening trade deficit came even as exports to China and Mexico were the strongest in more than three years, which some economists said challenged the Trump administration’s argument that the United States was being disadvantaged in its dealings with trade partners. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the trade gap widened 8.6 percent to $48.7 billion, the highest level since January. The politically sensitive U.S.-China trade deficit increased 1.7 percent to $35.2 billion and the deficit with Mexico surged 15.9 percent to $6.6 billion. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the overall trade deficit rising to $47.5 bn in October. U.S. financial markets were little moved by the large trade shortfall, which was flagged in an advance report last week. Republican President Donald Trump has blamed the trade deficit for the massive loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs as well as moderate economic growth. Trump has ordered the renegotiation of the NAFTA, which was signed in 1994 by the United States, Canada and Mexico. He told a group of pro-NAFTA Republican senators during lunch on Tuesday that the United States had trade deficits with “everybody.” When adjusted for inflation, the trade deficit increased to $65.3 billion, also the largest since January, from $62.2 billion in September. The so-called real trade deficit in October was above the third-quarter average of $62.0 billion, suggesting that trade could subtract from gross domestic product in the October-December quarter. The government reported last month that trade contributed 0.43 percentage point to the economy’s 3.3% annualized growth pace in the third quarter. The Trump administration believes a smaller trade deficit, together with deeper tax cuts could boost annual GDP growth to 3 percent on a sustained basis. Republicans in the U.S. Congress have approved a broad package of tax cuts, including slashing the corporate income tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent. But the planned fiscal stimulus will come at a time when the economy is at full employment, which will boost imports and widen the trade gap. Imports of goods and services increased 1.6 percent to a record $244.6 billion in October. Goods imports were the highest since May 2014 amid a $1.5 billion increase in crude oil imports. Imported oil prices averaged $47.26 per barrel in October, the highest since August 2015. Exports of goods and services were unchanged at $195.9 billion in October as a surge in shipments of industrial supplies and petroleum was offset by sharp declines in and civilian aircraft exports. The ISM said its non-manufacturing index fell to a reading of 57.4 last month from 60.1 in October. Last month, a gauge of new orders received by services industries dropped to 58.7 from a reading of 62.8 in October. A measure of new export orders fell 3.0 points while imports rose 0.5 point.
  • Gold gained in Asia on Wednesday as heightened political risk regionally and in Britain and the US supported the yellow metal. Elsewhere, Sky News reported that an Islamist suicide attack was planned against Downing Street and British PM Theresa May, but was foiled by police and security services. There was little immediate reaction to reports that Deutsche Bank received a subpoena from US special counsel Robert Mueller related to his Russia election meddling investigation and the bank's business with President Trump. Jay Sekulow, one of Trump's personal lawyers, said Deutsche Bank has not received any subpoena for financial records relating to the president as part of Mueller's probe. Overnight, gold prices fell to six-week lows on Tuesday as dollar strength continued on the back of recent investor optimism surrounding tax reform. Gold prices fell as bullish sentiment in risk markets continued amid growing investor expectations that the Senate and House of Representatives will reconciled their respective bills, ensuring that the final bill will reach President Donald Trump for approval before year-end. Also weighing on the dollar was ongoing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for third time this year at the conclusion of its next meeting on Dec.13.
  • Oil prices dipped on Wednesday, as refined product inventories in the United States rose in what the market interpreted as a sign of lackluster demand. A worker prepares to label barrels of lubricant oil at the state oil company Pertamina's lubricant production facility in Cilacap. Traders said the lower prices came after a report by the API late on Tuesday that showed a 9.2 million barrel rise in gasoline stocks in the week to Dec. 1, and an increase of 4.3 million barrels in inventories of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil. The perception that the higher fuel stocks pointed to weak demand outweighed the fact that crude inventories fell by 5.5 million barrels, to 451.8 million, traders said. Outside the United States, analysts said that a supply cut led by the OPEC and Russia, which is expected to last throughout 2018, has helped Brent prices rise by over 40 percent since June, and by more than 130 percent since January 2016, when they hit their lowest level since 2003. With the supply cuts likely in place throughout 2018, analysts said crude prices were well supported. One factor that could undermine OPEC’s and Russia’s effort to cut supplies and prop up prices is U.S. oil production C-OUT-T-EIA, which has risen by 15 percent since mid-2016 to 9.68 million barrels per day, close to levels of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
6th December 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,272-1,280 1,288 1,300
Silver-XAG 17.2016.50-16.90 17.20 17.50-18.00
Crude Oil 57.50 58.50 59.00-59.60
EURO/USD 1.1900-1.1990 1.2050 1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3660 1.3660 1.3660
USD/JPY 113.00 114.00 114.75-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
6th December 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,266-1,254 1,239 1,230
Silver-XAG 16.35-16.00 15.60 15.20
Crude Oil 57.00 56.00-55.40 54.70
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1750 1.1700 1.1635
GBP/USD 1.3300 1.3300 1.3260-1.3200
USD/JPY 111.90-111.00 109.20 113.00109.20

Intra-Day Strategy (6th December 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1276.94/oz and low of US$1260.90/oz. Gold was down by 0.800% at US$1265.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1267) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1284-1320 keeping stop loss closing above 1320 and targeting 1274-1266-1260 and 1254-1240. Buy above 1270-1250 with risk below 1250, targeting 1284-1290-1300 and 1311-1321.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,266-1,254
S2     1,239
S3     1,230
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,272-1,280
R2     1,288
R3     1,300

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.764

Buy
20-DMA   1281.60 Sell
50-DMA  

1282.65

Sell
100-DMA   1286.82 Sell
200-DMA   1267.06 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.682 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.978 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.54/oz and low of US$16.23/oz. Silver settled down by 0.001% at US$16.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.35-15.00 targeting 16.50-16.90-17.20 and 17.50-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.50-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.35-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.2016.50-16.90
R2     17.20
R3     17.50-18.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.060 Buy
20-DMA   16.89 Sell
50-DMA   16.91 Sell
100-DMA   16.98 Sell
200-DMA   17.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.075 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1338 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$57.90/bbl, intraday low of US$57.07/bbl and settled up by 0.0174% to close at US$57.46/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.50-59.60 with stop loss at 59.60; targeting and 57.00-56.00 and 56.50-55.40. Buy above 57.00-54.80 with risk daily closing below 54.80 and targeting 58.50- 59.60 and 60.50-61.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.00
S2     56.00-55.40
S3     54.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.50
R2     58.50
R3     59.00-59.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.143 Sell
20-DMA   57.17 Buy
50-DMA   54.38 Buy
100-DMA   51.58 Buy
200-DMA   49.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   31.2600 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.902 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1800/EUR, high of US$1.1872/EUR and settled the day down by 0.337% to close at US$1.1825/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1900-1.12090 targeting 1.1800-1.1750 and 1.1700-1.1660-1.1590 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2040. Buy above 1.1850-1.1700 with risk below 1.1700 targeting 1.1900-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1750
S2     1.1700
S3     1.1635

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1900-1.1990
R2     1.2050
R3     1.2090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.424 Buy
20-DMA   1.1805 Buy
50-DMA   1.1759 Sell
100-DMA   1.1797 Sell
200-DMA   1.1396 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.433 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0036 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3369/GBP, high of US$1.3481/GBP and settled the day up by 0.274% to close at US$1.3441/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3241) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3241) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3300
S2     1.3300
S3     1.3260-1.3200

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3660
R2     1.3660
R3     1.3660

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.440

Buy
20-DMA   1.3307 Sell
50-DMA   1.3241 Sell
100-DMA   1.3176 Buy
200-DMA   1.2946 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.834 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0069 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY112.37/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.86/USD and settled the day up by 0.169% at JPY112.59/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.50-111.90 and 111.00-110.20. Long positions above 112.50-110.10 with targets of 113.00-113.60-114.00 and 114.75-115.50 with stop below 115.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.90-111.00
S2     109.20
S3     113.00109.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00
R2     114.00
R3     114.75-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.753 Buy
20-DMA   112.36 Buy
50-DMA   112.80 Buy
100-DMA   111.56 Buy
200-DMA   111.66 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   61.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.212 Sell

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