AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares hovered above two-month lows on Thursday as some high-tech bellwethers bounced back after a searing sell-off although softer oil and copper prices and uncertainty over U.S. policy kept many investors cautious. Investors are looking to final tax reform legislation in the United States, where a potential U.S. government shutdown looms if Congress fails to agree on a spending package. There are also fears of a violent backlash in the Middle East from President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. But the energy sector dragged the U.S. market lower overnight as oil prices dropped. In the currency market, the dollar stood near a two-week high against a basket of currencies but lacked momentum as many players looked to see how the U.S. Republicans in the House and the Senate will bridge differences on tax plans. The British pound was on the defensive after hitting a one-week low of $1.3358 on Wednesday on concerns a Brexit deal may be unlikely before next week’s key EU summit due to an impasse over the Irish border. The dollar edged up against peers on Thursday, shaking off earlier losses versus the yen, supported by signs that investors' risk appetites were improving again and by optimism on U.S. tax reforms. The dollar had slipped against the yen after President Donald Trump on Wednesday recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, imperiling Middle East peace efforts and upsetting Washington's friends and foes alike. The U.S. currency rose to a two-week high against a basket of six major currencies as optimism towards U.S. lawmakers' making progress on tax legislation grew. Upbeat U.S. private-sector employment data released on Wednesday also provided support. U.S. Senate Republicans agreed to talks with the House of Representatives on sweeping tax legislation on Wednesday, amid early signs that lawmakers could bridge their differences and agree on a final bill ahead of a self-imposed Dec. 22 deadline. Sterling was down 0.1 percent at $1.3383 after touching a one-week low of $1.3358 overnight amid growing concerns that a Brexit deal may be unlikely before next week's key EU summit. The immediate focus for the pound was on British Prime Minister Theresa May, who is expected to propose suggestions to Brexit negotiators to try to break an impasse on the issue of the Irish border.
  • Gold prices eased slightly in Asia on Thursday with the market awaiting comment from the Fed at next week's review of policy and any language on what looks like a US tax cut package passed before the end of the year. Elsewhere, Middle East tension rose as President Donald Trump breaks with decades of US foreign policy, saying he's directing the State Department to begin preparations to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Benjamin Netanyahu says in a statement that Israel is "profoundly grateful" and that Trump's announcement is an "important step toward peace." Saudi Arabia called for an immediate review of the decision and said there could be dangerous consequences. Overnight, gold prices hovered above six-week lows on Wednesday as dollar strength continued after uncertainty over a possible US government shutdown eased, reducing investor demand for safe-haven gold. Gold prices struggled to hold onto gains as fears over a possible government shutdown eased amid reports that the GOP leadership in the House and Senate want to pass a bill that would extend the government shutdown deadline to Dec. 22 from Dec. 8. Trump said he would sign a stop-gap measure if passed. Expectations for Congress to pass a funding bill stoked sentiment on the greenback as it remained close to session highs, pressuring gold to give up early session gains. Gold is sensitive to moves higher in U.S. dollar – A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency, thus reduces demand for precious metal. Also weighing on the gold was ongoing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for third time this year at the conclusion of its next meeting on Dec.13.
  • Oil prices inched higher on Thursday after a data report showed a decrease in U.S. crude inventories, but rising gasoline stocks and crude production weighed on the market. Traders said the higher prices came as U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels in the week to Dec. 1, to 448.1 million barrels , putting stocks below seasonal levels in 2015 and 2016. The slightly higher prices also came after a big sell-off in late U.S. trading. Gasoline stocks rose 6.8 million barrels, to 220.9 million barrels, according to the report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), much more than analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a gain of 1.7 million barrels. U.S. crude production climbed by 25,000 bpd to 9.71 mn bpd, the highest since monthly figures showing the United States produced more than 10 mn bpd in the early 1970s. Soaring U.S. output threatens to undermine efforts led by the OPEC and Russia to bring production and demand into balance following years of oversupply. Sukrit Vijayakar, managing director of energy consultancy Trifecta warned there were "darker shadows over the pace of rebalancing, if at all any is taking place."

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th December 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,266 1,272-1,280 1,288
Silver-XAG 16.35 16.50-16.90 17.20
Crude Oil 56.00-57.00 57.50 58.50-59.00
EURO/USD 1.1900-1.1990 1.2050 1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3500-1.3570 1.3600 1.3660
USD/JPY 113.00 114.00 114.75-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th December 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,254-1,246 1,239 1,230
Silver-XAG 15.75-15.30 15.00 14.60-14.30
Crude Oil 55.40-54.70 54.00 52.90
EURO/USD 1.1790-1.1750 1.1700 1.1635
GBP/USD 1.3425-1.3360 1.3300 1.3260-1.3200
USD/JPY 111.90-111.00 110.20 109.20

Intra-Day Strategy (7th December 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1269.19/oz and low of US$1262.46/oz. Gold was down by 0.206% at US$1263.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1267) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1264-1300 keeping stop loss closing above 1300 and targeting 1254-1246 and 1239-1230. Buy above 1254-1230 with risk below 1250, targeting 1266-1274-1284 and 1290-1300-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,254-1,246
S2     1,239
S3     1,230
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,266
R2     1,272-1,280
R3     1,288

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.509

Buy
20-DMA   1280.07 Sell
50-DMA  

1279.99

Sell
100-DMA   1286.92 Sell
200-DMA   1267.09 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.931 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -4.132 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$16.13/oz and low of US$15.90/oz. Silver settled down by 0.932% at US$15.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.35-15.00 targeting 16.50-16.90-17.20 and 17.50-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.50-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.75-15.30
S2     15.00
S3     14.60-14.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.35
R2     16.50-16.90
R3     17.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.060 Buy
20-DMA   16.89 Sell
50-DMA   16.91 Sell
100-DMA   16.98 Sell
200-DMA   17.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.075 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1338 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$57.56/bbl, intraday low of US$55.85/bbl and settled up by 2.559% to close at US$55.96/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 56.00-59.00 with stop loss at 59.00; targeting and 55.40-54.70 and 54.00-52.90. Buy above 55.40-52.80 with risk daily closing below 52.80 and targeting 56.00-57.00-57.50 and 58.50-59.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     55.40-54.70
S2     54.00
S3     52.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     56.00-57.00
R2     57.50
R3     58.50-59.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.754 Sell
20-DMA   57.04 Buy
50-DMA   54.43 Buy
100-DMA   51.60 Buy
200-DMA   49.92 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   46.813 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.620 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1779/EUR, high of US$1.1847/EUR and settled the day down by 0.262% to close at US$1.1794/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1900-1.12090 targeting 1.1800-1.1750 and 1.1700-1.1660-1.1590 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2040. Buy above 1.1850-1.1700 with risk below 1.1700 targeting 1.1900-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1790-1.1750
S2     1.1700
S3     1.1635

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1900-1.1990
R2     1.2050
R3     1.2090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.634 Buy
20-DMA   1.1810 Buy
50-DMA   1.1758 Sell
100-DMA   1.1798 Sell
200-DMA   1.1402 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.002 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0027 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3357/GBP, high of US$1.3443/GBP and settled the day down by 0.371% to close at US$1.3391/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3241) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3500-1.3660 with targets at 1.3425-1.3360 and 1.3300-1.3260- 1.3200. Buy above 1.3425-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.3200 targeting 1.3425-1.3500 and 1.3570-1.3650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3425-1.3360
S2     1.3300
S3     1.3260-1.3200

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3500-1.3570
R2     1.3600
R3     1.3660

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.172

Buy
20-DMA   1.3310 Sell
50-DMA   1.3239 Sell
100-DMA   1.3177 Buy
200-DMA   1.2951 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.467 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.158 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.98/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.62/USD and settled the day down by 0.266% at JPY112.28/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.50-111.90 and 111.00-110.20. Long positions above 112.50-110.10 with targets of 113.00-113.60-114.00 and 114.75-115.50 with stop below 115.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.90-111.00
S2     110.20
S3     109.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00
R2     114.00
R3     114.75-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.753 Buy
20-DMA   112.36 Buy
50-DMA   112.80 Buy
100-DMA   111.56 Buy
200-DMA   111.66 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   61.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.212 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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