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Daily Market Lookup

  • U.S. job growth likely increased at a strong clip in November and wages rebounded as the distortions from the recent hurricanes faded, creating a portrait of a healthy economy that analysts say does not require the kind of fiscal stimulus that President Donald Trump is proposing. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday will likely show that nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 jobs last month after surging 261,000 in October. Employment gains in October were boosted by the return to work of thousands of employees who had been temporarily dislocated by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. November’s report will be the first clean reading since the storms, which also impacted September’s employment data. The unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent. Average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 0.3 percent in November after being flat the prior month. That would lift the annual increase in wages to 2.7 percent from 2.4 percent in October. Republicans argue that the proReaposed tax cut package will boost the economy and allow companies to hire more workers. But with the labor market near full employment and companies reporting difficulties finding qualified workers, economists disagree. Job openings are near a record high. While November’s employment report will probably have little impact on expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its Dec. 12-13 policy meeting, it could help shape the debate on monetary policy next year. Job growth has averaged 168,000 jobs per month this year, down from the average monthly gain of 187,000 in 2016. A slowdown in job growth is normal when the labor market nears full employment. The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The unemployment rate has declined by seven-tenths of a percentage point this year. Economists believe that the tightening labor market will unleash a faster pace of wage growth next year.
  • The dollar was hovering a two-and-a-half week highs against other major currencies on Friday, amid mouting optimism over a major U.S. tax reform plan and as investors eyed the release of key U.S. employment data due later in the day. The greenback was boosted after the U.S. Congress on Thursday passed legislation to temporarily fund the government through December 22, beofre a Friday midnight deadline and fuelling hopes the highly-anticipated U.S. tax reform will also be passed before the end of the year. U.S. Senate Republicans agreed to talks with the House of Representatives on a major tax reform bill on Wednesday, signaling that lawmakers could agree on a final bill ahead of a self-imposed December 22 deadline. The U.S. dollar was also boosted after data on Thursday showed that U.S. jobless claims declined last week for third consecutive week. Sterling remained supported after European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Friday that "sufficient progress" has been made in the first phase of Brexit talks and that discussions can now move to trade. Earlier Friday, official data showed that Japan's gross domestic product expanded by 0.6% in the third quarter, beating expectations for a growth rate of 0.4%. Year-over-year, Japan's economy grew 2.5% in the last quarter, blowing past projections for 1.5%.
  • Oil prices were stable on Friday, held back by a strengthening U.S. dollar but supported by China's relentless thirst for crude amid the OPEC-led supply cuts that have already tightened the market this year. A rising greenback attracts financial traders who switch investments between commodity futures and foreign exchange. A strong dollar is also seen by many as a brake on crude prices, as it makes dollar-denominated oil purchases more expensive in countries that use other currencies. Despite this, China's booming oil demand will this year overtake the United States as the world's biggest crude importer China's crude oil imports rose to 37.04 million tonnes in November, or 9.01 mn bpd, the second highest on record, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Friday. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, meanwhile, said healthy global demand and tight supplies should see Brent crude oil rise to $70 per barrel by mid-year. U.S. investment bank Jefferies said it expects 2018 global oil demand growth of 1.5 million bpd, driven by near 10 percent demand growth in China. On the supply side, oil prices have been receiving support from the OPEC and a group of non-OPEC producers, most importantly Russia, which has been withholding supplies to tighten the market. Largely because of these voluntary production cuts, oil prices rose sharply between June and October, with Brent gaining around 40 percent in value. Threatening to undermine OPEC's goal to tighten markets is U.S. oil production, which has risen by more than 15 percent since mid-2016 to 9.7 mn bpd, the highest level since the early 1970s and close to the output of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia. Overnight, crude oil prices settled higher on Thursday as a threatened strike in Nigeria and growing Middle East political tensions stoked fears of supply disruptions, while ongoing OPEC-led output curbs supported sentiment. One of Nigeria’s two main oil unions on Thursday threatened to launch a nationwide strike from Dec. 18 should the government fail to force the management of domestic oil and gas companies to recall laid-off union members. That added to fears of potential supply disruptions in the wake of growing Middle East political tensions after Saudi Arabia called for a review of US President Donald Trump’s decision to direct the State Department to begin preparations to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th December 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,254 1,266 1,272-1,280
Silver-XAG 16.35 16.50-16.90 17.20
Crude Oil 57.00 57.50 58.50-59.00
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1790 1.1900 1.1990-1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3500-1.3570 1.3600 1.3660
USD/JPY 114.00 114.75-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th December 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,246-1,239 1,230 1,224
Silver-XAG 15.75-15.30 15.00 14.60-14.30
Crude Oil 56.00 55.40-54.70 54.00
EURO/USD 1.1700-1.1650 1.1600 1.1540
GBP/USD 1.3425-1.3360 1.3300 1.3260-1.3200
USD/JPY 113.00 110.20 110.20

Intra-Day Strategy (8th December 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1264.3/oz and low of US$1243.88/oz. Gold was down by 1.266% at US$1246.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1267) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1254-1280 keeping stop loss closing above 1280 and targeting 1246-1239 and 1230-1224. Buy above 1246-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1254-1266-1274 and 1284-1290-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,246-1,239
S2     1,230
S3     1,224
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,254
R2     1,266
R3     1,272-1,280

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.182

Buy
20-DMA   1278.21 Sell
50-DMA  

1279.16

Sell
100-DMA   1286.76 Sell
200-DMA   1267.11 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.032 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.49 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.97/oz and low of US$15.63/oz. Silver settled down by 1.25% at US$15.71/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.35-15.00 targeting 16.50-16.90-17.20 and 17.50-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.50-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.75-15.30
S2     15.00
S3     14.60-14.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.35
R2     16.50-16.90
R3     17.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.116 Buy
20-DMA   16.67 Sell
50-DMA   16.84 Sell
100-DMA   16.97 Sell
200-DMA   17.02 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.616 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.295 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$56.75/bbl, intraday low of US$55.80/bbl and settled up by 1.107% to close at US$56.61/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.00-59.00 with stop loss at 59.00; targeting and 56.00-55.40-54.70 and 54.00-52.90. Buy above 55.40-52.80 with risk daily closing below 52.80 and targeting 56.00-57.00-57.50 and 58.50-59.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.00
S2     55.40-54.70
S3     54.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.00
R2     57.50
R3     58.50-59.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.256 Sell
20-DMA   57.07 Buy
50-DMA   54.55 Buy
100-DMA   51.72 Buy
200-DMA   49.94 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.256 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.588 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1771/EUR, high of US$1.1813/EUR and settled the day down by 0.186% to close at US$1.1772/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1900-1.12090 targeting 1.1800-1.1750 and 1.1700-1.1660-1.1590 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2040. Buy above 1.1850-1.1700 with risk below 1.1700 targeting 1.1900-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1700-1.1650
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1540

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1750-1.1790
R2     1.1900
R3     1.1990-1.2050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.921 Buy
20-DMA   1.1768 Buy
50-DMA   1.1756 Sell
100-DMA   1.1799 Sell
200-DMA   1.1408 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   4.360 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0017 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3319/GBP, high of US$1.3484/GBP and settled the day up by 0.612% to close at US$1.3473/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3241) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3500-1.3660 with targets at 1.3425-1.3360 and 1.3300-1.3260- 1.3200. Buy above 1.3425-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.3200 targeting 1.3425-1.3500 and 1.3570-1.3650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3425-1.3360
S2     1.3300
S3     1.3260-1.3200

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3500-1.3570
R2     1.3600
R3     1.3660

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.172

Buy
20-DMA   1.3310 Sell
50-DMA   1.3239 Sell
100-DMA   1.3177 Buy
200-DMA   1.2951 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.467 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.158 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY112.21/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.15/USD and settled the day up by 0.712% at JPY113.07/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 113.00-115.50 with risk above 115.50 targeting 112.50-111.90 and 111.00-110.20. Long positions above 112.50-110.10 with targets of 113.00-113.60-114.00 and 114.75-115.50 with stop below 115.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00
S2     110.20
S3     110.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.75-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.753 Buy
20-DMA   112.36 Buy
50-DMA   112.80 Buy
100-DMA   111.56 Buy
200-DMA   111.66 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   61.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.212 Sell

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