AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The craze for cryptocurrencies entered a new chapter on Monday as bitcoin futures rocketed by one-fifth of their value at a hotly anticipated launch, while Asian shares climbed amid optimism about global growth. The cryptocurrency has boasted a gravity-defying 15-fold gain since the start of the year, attracting institutional interest and no small amount of question marks. The acting governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Sunday said bitcoin appeared to be a "classic case" of a bubble. Asian shares were buoyant with every single market but one in the black, following strong U.S payrolls data and better-than-expected Chinese trade figures on Friday. Currency market investors were cautious ahead of a big week for policy meetings globally, with the Federal Reserve the only major central bank expected to raise interest rates. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are likely to hold rates steady. Traders will keep their eyes peeled for the Fed's future rate projections as U.S. wages growth and inflation crawl at a snail's pace. Data out on Friday showed average hourly earnings in the United States nudged up 5 cents or 0.2 percent in November when economists had looked for a 0.3% gain. The weakness persisted despite stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls, which rose by 228K in November.
  • Gold prices dipped in Asia on Monday with the market prepared to listen closely to the Fed commentary this week after it reviews rates and in particular language on the impact of expected tax cuts. The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to hike interst rates by a quarter point. The European Central Bank, Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are also due to hold monetary policy meetings, although no changes are expected. Last week, gold prices fell to a four-month low on Friday and posted the largest weekly fall since May after Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report underlined expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting. The U.S. economy added 228K jobs in November, the Labor Department reported, surpassing the 200K forecast by economists, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% for a second consecutive month. Wages rose 0.2% for the month, and 2.5% from a year ago, which was below forecasts of 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates at this week’s monetary policy meeting and is currently seen tightening two to three times next year, but concerns over tepid wage growth could alter the outlook for 2018. Expectations for higher interest rates are typically negative for gold as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets like Treasury’s when borrowing costs rise. A weaker dollar typically tends to support gold, which is denominated in the U.S. currency and becomes more affordable to foreign buyers when the dollar declines.
  • Oil prices fell on Monday as last week's rise in the U.S. rig count pointed to a further increase in American production that could undermine OPEC-led efforts to tighten markets A statement by Kuwait's oil minister that OPEC and other oil producers will study before June next year the possibility of exiting their global oil supply-cut agreement also weighed on prices, traders said. The number of rigs drilling for new oil output in the United States rose by two in the week to Dec.8, to 751, the highest level since September, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said on Friday. A higher rig count points to a further rise in U.S. crude production, which is already up by more than 15% since mid-2016 to 9.71 million bpd. That's the highest level since the early 1970s, and close to levels from top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia. Rising U.S. output threatens to undermine efforts led by the OPEC and a group of non-OPEC producers, including Russia, to support prices by withholding supplies. OPEC and its allies started withholding supplies last January and currently plan to continue doing so throughout 2018. Kuwait's oil minister Essam al-Marzouq said on Sunday, however, OPEC and other oil producers will study before June possibly ending the global oil supply cuts earlier. Oil traders this week will look at monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to assess global oil supply and demand levels. The data will give traders a better picture of whether a global rebalancing is taking place in the oil market. Last week, oil finished higher on Friday, boosted by signs of rising crude demand in China, but prices failed to avoid a weekly loss amid concerns over rising production in the U.S. However, fears that rising U.S. output would dampen OPEC’s efforts to rid the market of excess supplies prevented prices from rising much further, according to market participants. Domestic U.S. output has rebounded by almost 15% since the most recent low in mid-2016, and increasing drilling activity for new production means output is expected to grow further, as producers are attracted by climbing prices. U.S. oil production rose to 9.71 mn bpd last week, according to government data released during the week, the highest level since the early 1970s and close to the output of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia. The OPEC, along with some non-OPEC producers led by Russia, agreed last month to extend current oil output cuts for a further nine months until the end of 2018. The deal to cut oil output by 1.8 million bpd was adopted last winter by OPEC, Russia and nine other global producers. The agreement was due to end in March 2018, having already been extended once.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th December 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,254 1,266 1,272-1,280
Silver-XAG 16.35 16.50-16.90 17.20
Crude Oil 57.50 58.50-59.00 59.90
EURO/USD 1.1790 1.1900 1.1990-1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3500-1.3570 1.3600 1.3660
USD/JPY 114.00 114.75-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th December 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,246-1,239 1,230 1,224
Silver-XAG 15.75-15.30 15.00 14.60-14.30
Crude Oil 57.00 56.00 55.40-54.70
EURO/USD 1.1750 1.1700-1.1650 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3400-1.3360 1.3260-1.3200 1.3260-1.3200
USD/JPY 113.00 111.90-111.00 110.20

Intra-Day Strategy (11th December 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1252.30/oz and low of US$1243.78/oz. Gold was up by 0.093% at US$1248.42/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1267) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1254-1280 keeping stop loss closing above 1280 and targeting 1246-1239 and 1230-1224. Buy above 1246-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1254-1266-1274 and 1284-1290-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,246-1,239
S2     1,230
S3     1,224
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,254
R2     1,266
R3     1,272-1,280

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.892

Buy
20-DMA   1276.77 Sell
50-DMA  

1278.73

Sell
100-DMA   1286.70 Sell
200-DMA   1267.18 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.531 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.49 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.88/oz and low of US$15.69/oz. Silver settled up by 0.891% at US$15.84/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.35-15.00 targeting 16.50-16.90-17.20 and 17.50-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.50-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.75-15.30
S2     15.00
S3     14.60-14.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.35
R2     16.50-16.90
R3     17.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.116 Buy
20-DMA   16.67 Sell
50-DMA   16.84 Sell
100-DMA   16.97 Sell
200-DMA   17.02 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.616 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.295 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$56.75/bbl, intraday low of US$55.80/bbl and settled up by 1.107% to close at US$56.61/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.80-59.90 with stop loss at 59.90; targeting and 57.00-56.00-55.40 and 54.70-54.00. Buy above 55.40-52.80 with risk daily closing below 52.80 and targeting 56.00-57.00-57.50 and 58.50-59.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.00
S2     56.00
S3     55.40-54.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.50
R2     58.50-59.00
R3     59.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.853 Sell
20-DMA   57.12 Buy
50-DMA   54.70 Buy
100-DMA   51.83 Buy
200-DMA   49.96 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.256 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.605 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1729/EUR, high of US$1.1775/EUR and settled the day down by 0.169% to close at US$1.1774/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1790-1.12090 targeting 1.1750-1.1700 and 1.1660-1.1590 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2090. Buy above 1.1850-1.1700 with risk below 1.1700 targeting 1.1790-1.1900-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750
S2     1.1700-1.1650
S3     1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1790
R2     1.1900
R3     1.1990-1.2050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.339 Buy
20-DMA   1.1820 Buy
50-DMA   1.1758 Sell
100-DMA   1.1800 Sell
200-DMA   1.1414 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.559 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0015 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3354/GBP, high of US$1.3519/GBP and settled the day down by 0.601% to close at US$1.3392/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3241) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3500-1.3660 with targets at 1.3425-1.3360 and 1.3300-1.3260- 1.3200. Buy above 1.3425-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.3200 targeting 1.3425-1.3500 and 1.3570-1.3650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3400-1.3360
S2     1.3260-1.3200
S3     1.3260-1.3200

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3500-1.3570
R2     1.3600
R3     1.3660

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.59

Buy
20-DMA   1.3341 Sell
50-DMA   1.3244 Sell
100-DMA   1.3186 Buy
200-DMA   1.2963 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.615 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -00615 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY113.07/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.58/USD and settled the day up by 0.353% at JPY113.47/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.000 targeting 113.00-112.50-111.90 and 111.00-110.20. Long positions above 113.00-110.00 with targets of 114.00-114.75 and 115.50-116.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00
S2     111.90-111.00
S3     110.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.75-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.925 Buy
20-DMA   112.34 Buy
50-DMA   112.83 Buy
100-DMA   111.60 Buy
200-DMA   111.65 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   80.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0205 Sell

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