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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares took a small step back on Tuesday after three straight sessions of gains, with markets consolidating in the hope an upswing in global growth could outlast a likely hike in U.S. borrowing costs this week. The latest promising news came from China where banks doled out a surprisingly generous dose of credit in November, which could bode well for a pick up in retail sales and industrial output due later in the week. There was no lasting market impact from an explosion in New York’s busy Port Authority commuter hub, described by New York Mayor Bill de Blasio as an “attempted terrorist attack”. Investors continued their policy vigil with the Federal Reserve set to end its two-day meeting on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank meets on Thursday.
  • The dollar held firm near two-week highs versus a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, with traders awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week for fresh catalysts. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates at its two-day policy meeting that will end on Wednesday and is expected to tighten policy further next year. Most economists polled by Reuters now expect three more rate rises next year compared with two when surveyed just weeks ago, although the outlook remains clouded by stubbornly subdued inflation. Since a rate hike this week has been priced in, the dollar could sag initially after the Fed's policy announcement, said Steven Dooley, currency strategist for Western Union Business Solutions in Melbourne. The Fed, however, will probably sound optimistic about the economic outlook and that is likely to help underpin the greenback, he added. The dollar could come under pressure if Fed Chair Janet Yellen sounds less confident that inflation will rise toward the central bank's 2-percent target, in her remarks during a post-meeting news conference, said Masashi Murata, currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo. Even in that case the market reaction could be limited, however, as investors seek more clarity on the views of incoming Fed chair Jerome Powell, Murata said. The dollar will likely find support at levels around 112.00 yen or so, Murata added. Investors were relieved by the selection of an official with extensive expertise in monetary policy, and expected he would not veer too far from the status quo as he carries out a new dual mandate. Bitcoin slipped 1.4 percent to around $16,247 on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange, having set an all-time high of $17,270 on the exchange on Monday.
  • Gold prices dipped on Tuesday with language from he Fed after its rate announcement on Wednesday seen as key for direction. Overnight, gold prices remained under pressure on Monday despite weakness in the dollar as data showed money managers slashed their bullish bets on the precious metal to a 17-week low ahead of a widely expected Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Fresh from a three-week losing streak, gold prices struggled to pare recent losses as investors awaited the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year which is slated to get underway on Tuesday, with a policy decision due Wednesday. As well as the policy decision on interest rates, investors are expected to parse the Federal Reserve’s update to the summary of economic projections for clues on future monetary policy. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.
  • Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Tuesday led by Brent crossing $65 a barrel for the first time since 2015 as a shutdown of a key pipeline led to a spike in the global benchmark and investors looked ahead to US industry inventory estimates on crude and refined products. The American Petroleum Institute reports its estimates of US crude and refined product stocks last week with a 3.780 mn barrels draw in crude and a build of 416K barrels in distillates and a 2.184 mn barrels gain in gasoline supplies expected. The estimates will be followed on Wednesday by official data from the EIA. Overnight, Brent oil prices settled sharply higher on Monday amid supply disruptions after a major North Sea pipeline shut for repairs, while signs of rising US production capped gains in crude oil prices. The shutdown comes four days after the pipeline operating capacity was cut following reports of “small” leak last week. In the U.S., meanwhile, gains in the WTI crude oil futures were somewhat capped amid signs of growing output from US producers. The number of oil rigs operating in the US rose for the third consecutive week, said oil field services company Baker Hughes on Friday. The weekly rig count is an important barometer for the drilling industry and serves as a proxy for oil production and oil services demand. A higher rig count tends to signal a further rise in U.S. production. Earlier in the session oil prices shrugged off somewhat bearish comments from UAE Energy Minister Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, who said OPEC and non-OPEC producers plan to announce in June an exit strategy from global supply cuts but stressed that the pact would not end by then.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th December 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,248-1,254 1,266 1,272-1,280
Silver-XAG 16.35 16.50-16.90 17.20
Crude Oil 58.50-59.00 59.90 61.00
EURO/USD 1.1790 1.1900 1.1990-1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3360-1.3400 1.3500 1.3590
USD/JPY 114.00 114.75-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th December 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,239 1,230 1,224-1,210
Silver-XAG 15.75-15.30 15.00 14.60-14.30
Crude Oil 57.50-57.00 56.00 55.40-54.70
EURO/USD 1.1750 1.1700-1.1650 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3300 1.3260-1.3190 1.3100
USD/JPY 113.00 111.90-111.00 110.20

Intra-Day Strategy (12th December 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1251.47/oz and low of US$1240.59/oz. Gold was down by 0.416% at US$1242.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1267) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1254-1280 keeping stop loss closing above 1280 and targeting 1246-1239 and 1230-1224. Buy above 1246-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1254-1266-1274 and 1284-1290-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,239
S2     1,230
S3     1,224-1,210
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,248-1,254
R2     1,266
R3     1,272-1,280

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

33.465

Buy
20-DMA   1276.77 Sell
50-DMA  

1278.73

Sell
100-DMA   1286.70 Sell
200-DMA   1267.18 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.531 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.49 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$15.87/oz and low of US$15.68/oz. Silver settled down by 0.695% at US$15.70/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.35-15.00 targeting 16.50-16.90-17.20 and 17.50-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.50-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.75-15.30
S2     15.00
S3     14.60-14.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.35
R2     16.50-16.90
R3     17.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.965 Buy
20-DMA   16.55 Sell
50-DMA   16.80 Sell
100-DMA   16.95 Sell
200-DMA   17.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   20.557 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.3285 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$58.06/bbl, intraday low of US$56.89/bbl and settled up by 1.344% to close at US$58.02/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 58.50-61.00 with stop loss at 61.00; targeting and 57.50-57.00-56.00 and 55.40-54.70. Buy above 57.50-54.70 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 58.50-59.00 and 59.60-61.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.50-57.00
S2     56.00
S3     55.40-54.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.50-59.00
R2     59.90
R3     61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.901 Sell
20-DMA   57.32 Buy
50-DMA   54.88 Buy
100-DMA   51.94 Buy
200-DMA   49.99 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.040 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.707 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1763/EUR, high of US$1.1811/EUR and settled the day down by 0.034% to close at US$1.1768/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1790-1.12090 targeting 1.1750-1.1700 and 1.1660-1.1590 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2090. Buy above 1.1850-1.1700 with risk below 1.1700 targeting 1.1790-1.1900-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750
S2     1.1700-1.1650
S3     1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1790
R2     1.1900
R3     1.1990-1.2050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.339 Buy
20-DMA   1.1820 Buy
50-DMA   1.1758 Sell
100-DMA   1.1800 Sell
200-DMA   1.1414 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.559 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0015 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3330/GBP, high of US$1.3430/GBP and settled the day down by 0.291% to close at US$1.3382/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3241) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3500-1.3660 with targets at 1.3425-1.3360 and 1.3300-1.3260- 1.3200. Buy above 1.3425-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.3200 targeting 1.3425-1.3500 and 1.3570-1.3650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3300
S2     1.3260-1.3190
S3     1.3100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3360-1.3400
R2     1.3500
R3     1.3590

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.224

Buy
20-DMA   1.3346 Sell
50-DMA   1.3245 Sell
100-DMA   1.3188 Buy
200-DMA   1.2968 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.615 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -00480 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY113.23/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.68/USD and settled the day up by 0.0176% at JPY113.54/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.000 targeting 113.00-112.50-111.90 and 111.00-110.20. Long positions above 113.00-110.00 with targets of 114.00-114.75 and 115.50-116.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00
S2     111.90-111.00
S3     110.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.75-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.925 Buy
20-DMA   112.34 Buy
50-DMA   112.83 Buy
100-DMA   111.60 Buy
200-DMA   111.65 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   80.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0205 Sell

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