AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • U.S. stock futures, Treasury yields and the dollar fell on Wednesday as Democrat Doug Jones beat Republican Roy Moore in a bitter U.S. Senate race in Alabama, while Asian shares edged up as crude oil futures took back lost ground. A pedestrian stands to look at an electronic board showing the stock market indices of various countries outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, February 26, 2016. Jones’ victory could mean trouble for President Donald Trump and his populist political base. It would narrow the Republicans’ already slim majority in the U.S. Senate, possibly making it harder for Trump to advance his policy agenda. The election temporarily seized the spotlight away from the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to raise interest rates later on Wednesday and could provide clues about the timing of future U.S. policy moves. The Fed will conclude its two-day policy meeting and is seen raising its benchmark rate to between 1.25 and 1.50 percent, with investors also focusing on clues to the pace of tightening next year. Concerns that the central bank would take a slower pace of tightening due to cool inflation were partly alleviated by data on Tuesday that showed U.S. wholesale inflation rose last month. CPI data will be released later in the global session on Wednesday. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will also meet this week and are expected to hold rates steady.
  • The dollar fell in Asia on Wednesday after a forecast win for a democrat candidate in a US Senate race with potential implications for President Trump's tax cuts. Democrat Doug Jones of Alabama Tuesday scored an upset win in a deeply Republican state, capturing the U.S. Senate seat here in a special election that drove a wedge within the Republican party and gave Democrats another burst of momentum ahead of the 2018 midterm races. The Associated Press declared Jones, a 63-year-old former federal prosecutor, the winner over Republican Roy Moore, whose campaign was dogged in the final month of the race by allegations from several women who accused him sexual misconduct when they were teens and he was in his 30s. Mr. Moore denied any wrongdoing and declined calls from Republican Party leaders to step aside in the race for the seat Jeff Sessions held before he became attorney general. The race was closely watched by markets because of the potential impact on a razor-thin margin in the Senate ahead of an expected final vote on Trump's tax cut plans. Earlier, Japan reported core machinery orders for October with a jump of 5.0%, compared to a 2.8% gain seen on month and a 2.3% rise, compared to a 2.8% decline expected on year. The Labor Department said on Wednesday its producer price index for final demand increased 0.4% last month. In the 12 months through August, the PPI rose 3.1% after rising 2.8% in October. That beat economists’ forecast of a 2.9% for November. The upbeat wholesale inflation report raised expectations for a solid consumer inflation report due Wednesday. Bank of Tokyo Mitsu said the PPI data showed a sharp improvement in producer inflation, and added that the demand-led price push from higher commodity prices was a “classic” signal of increasing inflationary pressures. Investor focus, meanwhile, is expected to shift to monetary policy as the FOMC got its two-day meeting underway on Tuesday, ahead of the Wednesday’s interest rate decision.
  • Oil prices rose on Wednesday as industry data showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles, while expectations for an extended shutdown of a major North Sea crude pipeline also continued to bolster markets. Britain’s biggest pipeline from its North Sea oil and gas fields is likely to be shut for several weeks for repairs, its operator said on Tuesday. The pipeline, which carries about 450K bpd of Forties crude, was shut after cracks were found. It has particular significance to global markets because Forties is the largest out of the five crude oil streams that underpin the dated Brent benchmark. A number of producers, including BP and Royal Dutch Shell, said they had closed down oil fields in response. After settlement on Tuesday, industry group the API said crude stocks in the United States fell by 7.4 mn barrels last week. That is almost twice the decline of analysts’ expectations for a drop of 3.8 mn barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.3 mn barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.5 mn-barrel gain. Distillate fuels stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.5 mn barrels, compared with expectations for a 902K barrel gain, the API data showed. The U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration releases its weekly oil report on Wednesday. Selling had gained pace on Tuesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly short-term energy outlook that U.S. crude oil output will rise by 780K bpd to a record-high of 10.02 mn bpd in 2018.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th December 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,248-1,254 1,266 1,272-1,280
Silver-XAG 16.35 16.50-16.90 17.20
Crude Oil 58.50-59.00 59.90 61.00
EURO/USD 1.1790 1.1900 1.1990-1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3360-1.3400 1.3500 1.3590
USD/JPY 114.00 114.75-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th December 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,239 1,230 1,224-1,210
Silver-XAG 15.70-15.30 15.00 14.60-14.30
Crude Oil 57.00 56.00 55.40-54.70
EURO/USD 1.1750 1.1700-1.1650 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3300 1.3260-1.3190 1.3100
USD/JPY 113.00 111.90-111.00 110.20

Intra-Day Strategy (13th December 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1246.17/oz and low of US$1236.34/oz. Gold was down by 0.194% at US$1244.28/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1267) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1254-1280 keeping stop loss closing above 1280 and targeting 1246-1239 and 1230-1224. Buy above 1246-1224 with risk below 1224, targeting 1254-1266-1274 and 1284-1290-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,239
S2     1,230
S3     1,224-1,210
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,248-1,254
R2     1,266
R3     1,272-1,280

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

33.465

Buy
20-DMA   1276.77 Sell
50-DMA  

1278.73

Sell
100-DMA   1286.70 Sell
200-DMA   1267.18 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.531 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.49 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$15.80/oz and low of US$15.60/oz. Silver settled down by 0.0636% at US$15.71/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.35-15.00 targeting 16.50-16.90-17.20 and 17.50-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.50-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.70-15.30
S2     15.00
S3     14.60-14.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.35
R2     16.50-16.90
R3     17.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.965 Buy
20-DMA   16.55 Sell
50-DMA   16.80 Sell
100-DMA   16.95 Sell
200-DMA   17.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   20.557 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.3285 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$58.54/bbl, intraday low of US$56.84/bbl and settled down by 0.982% to close at US$57.44/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 58.50-61.00 with stop loss at 61.00; targeting and 57.50-57.00-56.00 and 55.40-54.70. Buy above 57.50-54.70 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 58.50-59.00 and 59.60-61.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.00
S2     56.00
S3     55.40-54.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.50-59.00
R2     59.90
R3     61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.214 Sell
20-DMA   57.37 Buy
50-DMA   55.01 Buy
100-DMA   52.02 Buy
200-DMA   50.01 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   71.576 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.599 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1716/EUR, high of US$1.1792/EUR and settled the day down by 0.229% to close at US$1.1741/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1790-1.12090 targeting 1.1750-1.1700 and 1.1660-1.1590 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2090. Buy above 1.1850-1.1700 with risk below 1.1700 targeting 1.1790-1.1900-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750
S2     1.1700-1.1650
S3     1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1790
R2     1.1900
R3     1.1990-1.2050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.339 Buy
20-DMA   1.1820 Buy
50-DMA   1.1758 Sell
100-DMA   1.1800 Sell
200-DMA   1.1414 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.559 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0015 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3302/GBP, high of US$1.3379/GBP and settled the day down by 0.157% to close at US$1.3382/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3241) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3500-1.3660 with targets at 1.3425-1.3360 and 1.3300-1.3260- 1.3200. Buy above 1.3425-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.3200 targeting 1.3425-1.3500 and 1.3570-1.3650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3300
S2     1.3260-1.3190
S3     1.3100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3360-1.3400
R2     1.3500
R3     1.3590

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.224

Buy
20-DMA   1.3346 Sell
50-DMA   1.3245 Sell
100-DMA   1.3188 Buy
200-DMA   1.2968 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.615 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -00480 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.36/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.74/USD and settled the day up by 0.0176% at JPY113.53/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.000 targeting 113.00-112.50-111.90 and 111.00-110.20. Long positions above 113.00-110.00 with targets of 114.00-114.75 and 115.50-116.00 with stop below 116.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.00
S2     111.90-111.00
S3     110.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.75-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.925 Buy
20-DMA   112.34 Buy
50-DMA   112.83 Buy
100-DMA   111.60 Buy
200-DMA   111.65 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   80.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0205 Sell

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