AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged up on Friday though it remained on track for weekly losses, while the euro slumped after Catalan vote results indicated a victory for separatists in a blow to Madrid. Spain's government had hoped that the Catalan election would strip pro-independence parties of their control of the regional parliament and end their campaign to force a split. But with 96 percent of ballots counted in a vote to elect Catalonia's regional parliament, separatist parties are seen winning 70 seats out of 135. One immediate threat to dollar bulls was removed on Thursday, as the U.S. Senate approved a bill to fund the federal government through Jan. 19 and avert agency shutdowns ahead of a Friday midnight deadline. The bill now goes to President Donald Trump to sign into law. Also underpinning the dollar, Congress approved the most significant U.S. tax code overhaul in three decades that was expected to give at least a short-term lift to already solid economic growth. U.S. third-quarter data released on Thursday showed the economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years, powered by robust business spending. A separate report showed a jump in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week, but the underlying trend in jobless claims remained consistent with a tightening labor market. On Thursday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reinforced expectations that the BOJ was in no hurry to move away from its ultra-loose monetary policy. Speaking after the BOJ held interest rates steady as widely expected, Kuroda said his earlier reference to a "reversal rate" did not indicate a change in his thinking on monetary policy.
  • Gold prices remained at two-week highs on Thursday, amid continued dollar weakness as the US economy expanded less than expected in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said third quarter GDP expanded at a 3.2% annual rate. That missed economists’ forecasts of a 3.3% rise but was above the 3.1% growth in the second quarter and the quickest rise since the first quarter of 2015. That soft economic growth data failed to spark a significant move higher in gold as the data is not expected to weigh on the Fed’s decision to continue with its plan to hike rates in 2018. Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi said GDP is “winning the race on growth” earlier than the Trump administration had expected, while Pantheon said its forecast for 3% growth in the fourth quarter GDP remained unchanged. Gold prices are set for second weekly win but Goldman Sachs on Wednesday warned that it expects gold to fall to $1,200 an ounce by mid-2018 as safe-haven demand, underpinning gold prices, are likely to fade amid US tax reform and a smooth transition to a new Fed chair.
  • Oil prices on Friday dipped away from 2015 highs reached the previous session, weighed down by rising U.S. output and the expected January re-opening of the Forties pipeline in the North Sea Dealt volumes of crude futures were declining fast as traders closed positions ahead of upcoming Christmas and New Year breaks. The dip on Friday was largely due to an outlook for rising supplies which triggered traders to sell out of long positions ahead of year-end Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore said there was “a lack of momentum as the holiday season subdues trading volumes”. Weighing on the oil price outlook more fundamentally is the expected return of the 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) Forties pipeline system in the North Sea in January. The pipeline, which delivers crude underpinning Brent futures contracts, shut down earlier this month due to a crack. Operator Ineos said on Thursday it expected to complete repairs around Christmas and would gradually restart the system in early January. Longer term, analysts said rising crude production in the United States, which is fast approaching 10 million bpd, would also weigh on oil prices, undermining efforts led by the OPEC and a group of non-OPEC producers, including Russia, to tighten the market. Oil prices on Friday dipped away from some of its highest levels since 2015, weighed down by rising U.S. output and the expected January re-opening of the Forties pipeline in the North Sea. The dip on Friday was due to an outlook for rising supplies that triggered those holding long positions to sell-out ahead of the year-end holidays, traders said. Also weighing on the market was the expected return of the 450,000 bpd Forties pipeline system in the North Sea in January. The pipeline, which delivers crude underpinning Brent futures, was shut earlier this month due to a crack. Operator Ineos said on Thursday it expected to complete repairs around Christmas and to gradually restart the system in early January. Longer term, analysts said crude production in the United States that is fast approaching 10 million bpd would also drag on oil prices, and undermine efforts led by the OPEC and Russia to tighten the market. The OPEC-led pact to withhold supplies started in January this year, and the producer group and its allies decided in November to extend the cuts to cover all of 2018, instead of letting them expire next March, as had been planned. The supply restraint has resulted in significant reductions of oil inventories and helped push up Brent prices by more than 45 percent since June this year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd December 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,266 1,272-1,280 1,295
Silver-XAG 16.35 16.50-16.90 17.20
Crude Oil 58.20-59.00 59.90 61.00
EURO/USD 1.1900-1.1960 1.1990 1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3400 1.3450-1.3500 1.3590
USD/JPY 114.00 114.75-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd December 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,260 1,254-1,248 1,239
Silver-XAG 15.80-15.30 15.00 14.60-14.30
Crude Oil 57.40-57.00 56.00 55.40-54.70
EURO/USD 1.1840-1.1790 1.1750 1.1700-1.1650
GBP/USD 1.3350 1.3300 1.3260-1.3190
USD/JPY 113.20 112.50 112.00-111.60

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd December 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1268.87/oz and low of US$1262.74/oz. Gold was up by 0.105% at US$1266.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1267) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1266-1295 keeping stop loss closing above 1295 and targeting 1260-1254-1246 and 1236-1230 Buy above 1260-1230 with risk below 1230, targeting 1266-1274 and 1284-1290-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,260
S2     1,254-1,248
S3     1,239
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,266
R2     1,272-1,280
R3     1,295

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.287

Buy
20-DMA   1265.94 Sell
50-DMA  

1274.87

Sell
100-DMA   1286.12 Sell
200-DMA   1269.07 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.143 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.227 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$16.23/oz and low of US$16.07/oz. Silver settled up by 0.309% at US$16.11/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-14.30 targeting 16.35-16.90-17.20 and 17.50-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.3-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.50-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.80-15.30
S2     15.00
S3     14.60-14.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.35
R2     16.50-16.90
R3     17.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.450 Buy
20-DMA   16.15 Sell
50-DMA   16.66 Sell
100-DMA   16.91 Sell
200-DMA   16.96 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   70.718 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.182 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$58.10/bbl, intraday low of US$57.42/bbl and settled up by 0.711% to close at US$58.04/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 58.20-61.00 with stop loss at 61.00; targeting and 57.40--56.00 and 55.40-54.70. Buy above 57.00-54.50 with risk daily closing below 54.50 and targeting 58.30-59.00 and 59.60-61.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.40-57.00
S2     56.00
S3     55.40-54.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.20-59.00
R2     59.90
R3     61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.912 Sell
20-DMA   57.42 Buy
50-DMA   55.27 Buy
100-DMA   52.16 Buy
200-DMA   50.08 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.806 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.452 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1848/EUR, high of US$1.1889/EUR and settled the day up by 0.025% to close at US$1.1873/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1900-1.12050 targeting 1.1850-1.1790-1.1750 and 1.1700-1.1660 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2050. Buy above 1.1850-1.1650 with risk below 1.1650 targeting 1.1900-1.1960-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1840-1.1790
S2     1.1750
S3     1.1700-1.1650

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1900-1.1960
R2     1.1990
R3     1.2050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.228 Buy
20-DMA   1.1828 Buy
50-DMA   1.1763 Sell
100-DMA   1.1803 Sell
200-DMA   1.1461 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.533 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0014 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3331/GBP, high of US$1.3386/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0822% to close at US$1.3385/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3263) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3400-1.3660 with targets at 1.3300-1.3260 and 1.3200-1.3115. Buy above 1.3300-1.3115 with stop loss closing below 1.3115 targeting 1.3400-1.3500 and 1.3590-1.3650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3350
S2     1.3300
S3     1.3260-1.3190

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3400
R2     1.3450-1.3500
R3     1.3590

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.434

Buy
20-DMA   1.3397 Sell
50-DMA   1.3207 Sell
100-DMA   1.3146 Buy
200-DMA   1.3014 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.611 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0031 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY113.19/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.62/USD and settled the day up by 0.460% at JPY113.31/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.61), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.20-112.50-112.00 and 111.60-111.00. Long positions above 113.20-111.60 with targets of 113.00-114.00 and 114.75-115.50 with stop below 110.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.20
S2     112.50
S3     112.00-111.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.75-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.752 Buy
20-DMA   112.65 Buy
50-DMA   112.93 Buy
100-DMA   111.82 Buy
200-DMA   111.60 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   84.951 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.152 Sell

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