AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar held steady in Tuesday’s holiday-thinned trade, shrugging off upbeat Japanese economic data as market participants pondered about next year’s potential catalysts. Markets in Australia and Hong Kong remained closed after Monday’s Christmas holiday, and many financial centers in Europe will also be shut on Tuesday. The euro inched down 0.1 percent to $1.1869 EUR=. The single currency gave up some ground last week after Catalan separatists won a regional election, deepening Spain's political crisis in a sharp rebuke to Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and European Union leaders who backed him. Last week, the U.S. Congress approved a tax code overhaul that was expected to give at least a short-term lift to already solid economic growth. They also pushed through a measure to fund the federal government through Jan. 19, averting agency shutdowns. The market had a muted reaction to data released early on Tuesday which showed that Japan’s core consumer prices rose for the 11th straight month, up 0.9 percent year-on-year, and household spending jumped in November. While the inflation rate remains distant from the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent target, the rise offered some hope that a steady economic recovery will gradually drive up prices. On Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged companies to raise wages by 3 percent or more next year, keeping up pressure on firms to spend their huge cash pile on wages to broaden the benefits of his “Abenomics” stimulus policies. Minutes of the BOJ’s October meeting, released on Tuesday, showed most members shared the view that the central bank should maintain its easy policy. The BOJ kept monetary policy steady last week and its governor reassured markets the central bank will lag well behind overseas peers in ending its ultra-easy policies.
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday urged companies to raise wages by 3 percent or more next year, keeping up pressure on firms to spend their huge cash pile on wages to broaden the benefits of his “Abenomics” stimulus policies. Wages at big companies have been rising slightly more than 2 percent each year since 2014, government data shows, and an increase of 3 percent or more next year would help the Bank of Japan to reach its elusive 2 percent inflation target. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the same meeting that companies remain hesitant to raise wages because they had become accustomed to prioritising job security over wage hikes during 15 years of deflation. Abe’s stimulus policies have helped boost corporate profits and business sentiment by pushing up stock prices and weakening the yen. But firms remain reluctant to raise wages and prices, citing an uncertain economic outlook.
  • Oil prices were stable on Tuesday, with Brent crude lingering near 2015 highs on the back of an outlook for healthy demand amid ongoing production cuts led by OPEC and Russia. Trading activity was extremely low on Tuesday due to the ongoing Christmas holiday in many countries. The OPEC the Middle East-dominated producer club and Russia - the world’s single biggest oil producer - have been withholding output in order to tighten the market and prop up prices. The agreement to cut started last January and is set to cover all of 2018. Jabar al-Luaibi, oil minister of OPEC-member Iraq, said on Monday there would be a balance between supply and demand by the first quarter of 2018, leading to a boost in oil prices. The production cuts come amid healthy global demand, which many analysts expect to hit 100 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time at some point next year or in 2019. Jeffrey Halley of futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore said oil prices were “making slow but steady gains on optimism about the global economy in 2018”. Potentially keeping a lid on prices is the expected return of the Forties pipeline system in the North Sea, which can supply up to 450K bpd of crude underpinning Brent futures. The pipeline shut down earlier in December due to a crack, but operator Ineos said the system was being tested following repairs and full flows should return in early January.
  • In the longer term, OPEC and Russia efforts to prop up prices could be undermined by U.S. production, which has soared by more than 16 percent since mid-2016, to almost 10 mn bpd Only OPEC king-pin Saudi Arabia and Russia produce more, but the United States is fast catching up, largely thanks to shale drillers. The U.S. rig count, an early indicator of future output, held at 747 in the week to Dec. 22, according to the latest weekly report by Baker Hughes. That’s much higher than a year ago, when only 523 rigs were active, and most analysts expect U.S. output to rise past 10 million bpd within weeks.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th December 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,280-1,286 1,295 1,300-1,309
Silver-XAG 16.50-16.90 17.20 17.45
Crude Oil 59.00-59.90 61.00 61.90
EURO/USD 1.1900-1.1960 1.1990 1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3400 1.3450-1.3500 1.3590
USD/JPY 114.00 114.75-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th December 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,272-1,266 1,260 1,272-1,266
Silver-XAG 16.35-15.80 15.30 15.00-14.60
Crude Oil 58.20 57.40-57.00 56.00
EURO/USD 1.1840-1.1790 1.1750 1.1700-1.1650
GBP/USD 1.3350 1.3300 1.3260-1.3190
USD/JPY 113.20 112.50 112.00-111.60

Intra-Day Strategy (26th December 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1276.12/oz and low of US$1264.89/oz. Gold was up by 0.638% at US$1274.84/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1267) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1280-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1309 and targeting 1274-1260 and 1254-1246-1236. Buy above 1274-1240 with risk below 1240, targeting 1280-1286-1294-and 1300-1309.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,272-1,266
S2     1,260
S3     1,272-1,266
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,280-1,286
R2     1,295
R3     1,300-1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.182

Buy
20-DMA   1264.48 Sell
50-DMA  

1273.96

Sell
100-DMA   1286.50 Sell
200-DMA   1269.56 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.267 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.227 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$16.40/oz and low of US$16.09/oz. Silver settled up by 1.614% at US$16.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.35-14.60 targeting 16.50-16.90-17.20 and 17.50-18.00; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00-14.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.35-15.80
S2     15.30
S3     15.00-14.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50-16.90
R2     17.20
R3     17.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.111 Buy
20-DMA   16.13 Sell
50-DMA   16.65 Sell
100-DMA   16.91 Sell
200-DMA   16.96 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   84.427 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.182 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$58.49/bbl, intraday low of US$57.85/bbl and settled up by 0.446% to close at US$58.46/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.20
S2     57.40-57.00
S3     56.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.00-59.90
R2     61.00
R3     61.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.245 Sell
20-DMA   57.49 Buy
50-DMA   56.12 Buy
100-DMA   52.68 Buy
200-DMA   50.35 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   95.132 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.563 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1816/EUR, high of US$1.1874/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0842% to close at US$1.1863/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1900-1.12050 targeting 1.1850-1.1790-1.1750 and 1.1700-1.1660 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2050. Buy above 1.1850-1.1650 with risk below 1.1650 targeting 1.1900-1.1960-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1840-1.1790
S2     1.1750
S3     1.1700-1.1650

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1900-1.1960
R2     1.1990
R3     1.2050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.119 Buy
20-DMA   1.1828 Buy
50-DMA   1.1763 Sell
100-DMA   1.1803 Sell
200-DMA   1.1461 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.533 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0014 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3396/GBP, high of US$1.3396/GBP and settled the day down by 0.164% to close at US$1.3368/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3263) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3400-1.3660 with targets at 1.3300-1.3260 and 1.3200-1.3115. Buy above 1.3300-1.3115 with stop loss closing below 1.3115 targeting 1.3400-1.3500 and 1.3590-1.3650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3350
S2     1.3300
S3     1.3260-1.3190

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3400
R2     1.3450-1.3500
R3     1.3590

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.434

Buy
20-DMA   1.3397 Sell
50-DMA   1.3207 Sell
100-DMA   1.3146 Buy
200-DMA   1.3014 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.611 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0031 113.20 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY113.24/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.44/USD and settled the day down by 0.026% at JPY113.28/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.61), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.20-112.50-112.00 and 111.60-111.00. Long positions above 113.20-111.60 with targets of 113.00-114.00 and 114.75-115.50 with stop below 110.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.20
S2     112.50
S3     112.00-111.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.75-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.752 Buy
20-DMA   112.65 Buy
50-DMA   112.93 Buy
100-DMA   111.82 Buy
200-DMA   111.60 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   84.951 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.152 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING