AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares marched toward a decade high on Thursday, on track for their best annual performance since 2009 as investors bet on a bright outlook for the global economy with copper at a four-year peak. It has risen about 33 percent in 2017 thanks to improving global growth as exports boomed, sharply lifting corporate earnings. Much of the positive impulse is expected to extend into 2018. Trade was light across the board with many market participants on holiday. The dollar slid broadly on Thursday, hampered by a recent dip in U.S. 10-year bond yields, while commodity-linked currencies were bolstered by this week’s rally in metals and oil prices. The single currency has gained more than 13 percent so far this year, well on the way for its best annual performance since 2003. This week’s drop in the dollar probably partly reflects a sell-the-fact type of reaction after U.S. President Donald Trump signed U.S. tax reforms into law last week, said Lee Jin Yang, macro research analyst for Aberdeen Standard Investments in Singapore. Earlier on Thursday, South Korea’s government said it will impose additional measures to regulate speculation in cryptocurrency trading in the nation, where bitcoin has drawn wide participation from housewives and students. Gold prices continued to edge higher on Wednesday as the dollar struggled to pare losses amid consumer sentiment data that missed expectations. Gold futures remained close to four-week highs as the dollar continued to trend lower after a mixed bag of economic data failed to lift sentiment on the greenback amid light trading volumes. Pending home sales were mostly unchanged in November, rising by 0.2% month-on-month, according to the National Association of Realtors. That topped expectations for a 0.4% decline. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge fell to 122.1 in December from a revised reading of 128.6 in November, missing economists' forecast for a reading of 128.
  • Key stats out through the Asian session this morning was limited to Japan’s prelim November industrial production and retail sales figures. Data out of Japan continues to impress, with industrial production rising by 0.6%, ahead of a forecasted and October 0.5%, with retail sales surging by 2.2%, following October’s 0.2% decline. For Prime Minister Abe, household spending has continued to be an issue, with weak spending having been attributed to tepid wage growth. Today’s figures provide much needed support to 4th quarter economic growth figures that have been largely dependent upon trade. While there are no material stats scheduled for release out of the Eurozone this morning, the ECB economic bulletin is due to be published, which will be sliced and diced by the markets in search of ECB sentiment towards the economy and inflation. Any negative sentiment towards inflation could see the EUR give up some of the holiday gains, though with the Dollar going through a rough patch, the outlook will need to be quite negative for the markets to shift sentiment towards ECB monetary policy. Outside the data, Spain will need to be monitored, with any increased tension with the Catalan independence parties a negative for the EUR. For the Pound, stats are limited to house price figures that are likely to be largely brushed aside by the markets, with Dollar weakness driving the Pound back up to $1.34 levels in the early part of the day. There’s been no material shift in sentiment towards the UK economy and progress on Brexit to support today’s upside, with no real stats scheduled for release until next week’s private sector December PMI numbers. While economists have claimed that they had been overly pessimistic on the effects of the EU Referendum on the UK economy, next week’s numbers could be the beginning of the end from an economic growth perspective.
  • Oil prices were stable on Thursday with trading activity drying up ahead of the New Year weekend. Heading into 2018, traders said market conditions were relatively tight due to ongoing supply cuts led by the Middle East-dominated OPEC, as well as top producer Russia. WTI received support from a report by the API showing a 6 million barrel drop in crude oil inventories to 432.8 mn. Traders said the high prices were a result of a relatively tight market following a year of OPEC and Russia-led production cuts, which were started last January and scheduled to cover all of 2018. Pipeline outages in Libya and the North Sea have also been supporting oil prices. Around 100K bpd in oil supplies were disrupted in Libya this week after an attack on a pipeline. In the North Sea, the 450K bpd capacity Forties pipeline system was shut earlier this month due to a crack. Both pipelines are expected to return to normal operations in January, with Forties already in the start-up process. A major factor countering efforts by OPEC and Russia efforts to prop up prices is U.S. oil production, which has soared more than 16 percent since mid-2016 and is fast approaching 10 million bpd. Only OPEC king-pin Saudi Arabia and Russia produce more. The latest official U.S. production figures are due to be published by the on Thursday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th December 2017 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,295 1,300-1,309 1,320
Silver-XAG 16.90-17.30 17.50 18.05
Crude Oil 59.90-60.50 61.00 61.90
EURO/USD 1.1960-1.1990 1.2050 1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3450-1.3500 1.3590 1.3650
USD/JPY 114.00 114.75-115.50 116.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th December 2017 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,286 1,280-1,272 1,266
Silver-XAG 16.70 16.35-15.80 15.00
Crude Oil 59.00 58.20 57.40-57.00
EURO/USD 1.1900-1.1850 1.1790 1.1750-1.1700
GBP/USD 1.3400-1.3350 1.3300 1.3260-1.3190
USD/JPY 113.20 112.50 112.00-111.60

Intra-Day Strategy (28th December 2017)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1288.87/oz and low of US$1281.24/oz. Gold was up by 0.303% at US$1287.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1267) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1296-1320 keeping stop loss closing above 1320 and targeting 1286-1280-1274 and 1260-1246. Buy above 1286-1260 with risk below 1260, targeting 1294-1300 and 1309-1320.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,286
S2     1,280-1,272
S3     1,266
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,295
R2     1,300-1,309
R3     1,320

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

64.350

Buy
20-DMA   1264.80 Sell
50-DMA  

1274.32

Sell
100-DMA   1286.95 Sell
200-DMA   1270.08 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   95.528 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.646 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$16.71/oz and low of US$16.47/oz. Silver settled up by 0.907% at US$16.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-14.60 targeting 16.90-17.30 and 17.50-18.00; stop breakage below 14.60. Sell below 16.90-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 15.60-15.00 and 14.60-14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.70
S2     16.35-15.80
S3     15.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.90-17.30
R2     17.50
R3     18.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.532 Buy
20-DMA   16.14 Sell
50-DMA   16.64 Sell
100-DMA   16.91 Sell
200-DMA   16.96 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   95.555 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.032 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$59.91/bbl, intraday low of US$59.32/bbl and settled down by 0.234% to close at US$59.57/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 59.90-61.90 with stop loss at 61.90; targeting and 59.00-58.20 and 57.40-56.00. Buy above 59.00-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 59.90-60.50 and 61.00-61.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.00
S2     58.20
S3     57.40-57.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.90-60.50
R2     61.00
R3     61.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.555 Sell
20-DMA   57.65 Buy
50-DMA   56.30 Buy
100-DMA   52.80 Buy
200-DMA   50.41 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.867 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.755 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1854/EUR, high of US$1.1909/EUR and settled the day up by 0.244% to close at US$1.1886/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1960-1.12090 targeting 1.1900-1.1850-1.1790 and 1.1750-1.1700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2090. Buy above 1.1890-1.1700 with risk below 1.1700 targeting 1.1960-1.1990 and 1.2050-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1900-1.1850
S2     1.1790
S3     1.1750-1.1700

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1960-1.1990
R2     1.2050
R3     1.2090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.558 Buy
20-DMA   1.1829 Buy
50-DMA   1.1770 Sell
100-DMA   1.1808 Sell
200-DMA   1.1483 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.976 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3428/GBP, high of US$1.3367/GBP and settled the day up by 0.149% to close at US$1.3393/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3263) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3450-1.3660 with targets at 1.3400-1.3350-1.3300 and 1.3260-1.3190. Buy above 1.3400-1.3190 with stop loss closing below 1.3115 targeting 1.3400-1.3500 and 1.3590-1.3650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3400-1.3350
S2     1.3300
S3     1.3260-1.3190

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3450-1.3500
R2     1.3590
R3     1.3650

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.426

Buy
20-DMA   1.3404 Sell
50-DMA   1.3029 Sell
100-DMA   1.3029 Buy
200-DMA   1.3029 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   71.870 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0025 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.11/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.32/USD and settled the day down by 0.044% at JPY113.22/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.61), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 114.00-116.00 with risk above 116.00 targeting 113.20-112.50-112.00 and 111.60-111.00. Long positions above 113.20-111.60 with targets of 113.00-114.00 and 114.75-115.50 with stop below 110.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.20
S2     112.50
S3     112.00-111.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00
R2     114.75-115.50
R3     116.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.752 Buy
20-DMA   112.65 Buy
50-DMA   112.93 Buy
100-DMA   111.82 Buy
200-DMA   111.60 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   84.951 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.152 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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