AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares hit historic highs on Monday after Wall Street extended its record-breaking run, while the U.S. dollar retreat continued as investors priced in the risk of tighter policies elsewhere in the developed world. Stocks in Hong Kong jumped 0.9 percent to another record. Investors were optimistic that Chinese gross domestic product data for the December quarter due on Thursday would show growth of at least 6.7% for the world's second biggest economy. The single currency has been bolstered by speculation European Central Bank policymakers are preparing to temper their vast monetary stimulus campaign. Also helping was news German Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU party and the Social Democrats (SD) were moving toward formal coalition talks Leading members of the Social Democrats said on Sunday they would press for improvements to the coalition blueprint, seeking to win over skeptical party members who can torpedo the deal. A softening U.S. dollar combined with resilient Chinese demand has been positive for most commodity prices.
  • The dollar wallowed at three-year lows against a basket of currencies on Monday, while the euro took a breather after soaring on hopes that European Central Bank policymakers were gearing up to further trim their monetary stimulus. Against the yen, the dollar slipped to its lowest levels since mid-September, as comments from Japan's central bank governor underscored Japan's economic recovery. While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated the central bank's resolve to maintain its massive stimulus program until 2 percent inflation is achieved stably, he also said the country's economy was expected to continue moderately expanding. On Friday, the British currency jumped to its highest levels against the dollar since the Brexit vote in June, 2016, after a report that the Netherlands and Spain were open to a deal for Britain to remain as close as possible to the European Union. The pound shrugged off a denial from officials from the Spanish and Dutch finance ministries, who said there was no new agreement between the countries on how Britain should leave the EU. Gold prices started the week on the front-foot on Monday, hitting their highest level since September as the dollar languished at three-year lows against a basket of currencies.
  • Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. There will be no floor trading on the Comex on Monday because of the Columbus Day holiday in the U.S. All electronic transactions will be booked with Tuesday's trades for settlement. The U.S. dollar remained on the defensive early on Monday as investors continued to price in the risk of tighter policies in Japan and Europe. Looking ahead, the U.S. will see a relatively quiet week in terms of economic releases, with a report on the housing sector expected to draw the most attention. Besides the housing-related data, this week's calendar also features surveys on manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia and New York regions as well as industrial production figures and preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment figures. The Fed's Beige Book, as well as speeches from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Cleveland Fed Boss Loretta Mester and Fed Governor Randall Quarles, will also be in focus.
  • Brent crude oil prices rose to $70 a barrel on Monday, supported by ongoing output cuts led by OPEC and Russia, and ignoring a rise in U.S. and Canadian drilling activity that points to higher future output in North America. ANZ bank said on Monday oil prices had recently risen on data that continued to show the market is tightening. Oil markets have been well supported by production cuts led by the OPEC and Russia which are aimed at propping up crude prices. The cuts started in January last year and are set to last through 2018, and they have coincided with healthy demand growth, pushing up crude prices by more than 13 percent since early December. But other factors, including political risk, have also supported crude. Attracted by tighter supplies and strong consumption, financial investors have raised their net long U.S. crude futures positions, which would profit from higher prices, to a new record, the U.S. CFTC said on Friday. Some analysts, though, have been warning of a downward correction after the sharp price gains since December. U.S. energy companies added 10 oil rigs in the week to Jan. 12, taking the number to 752, energy service firm Baker Hughes said on Friday. The high prices for crude, which is the most important feedstock in the petroleum industry, have also crimped profit margins for oil refiners, resulting in a decline in new crude orders.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th January 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,349 1,358-1366 1,376
Silver-XAG 17.45-17.70 18.08 18.60
Crude Oil 64.75-65.30 66.00 66.9
EURO/USD 1.2240-1.2300 1.2360 1.2420
GBP/USD 1.3750-1.3830 1.3900 1.3975
USD/JPY 111.00-111.60 112.00 112.50-113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th January 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,336 1,326-1,320 1,309
Silver-XAG 17.10 16.70 16.35-15.80
Crude Oil 64.20 63.50 63.00-62.50
EURO/USD 1.2200 1.2160-1.2095 1.1990
GBP/USD 1.3700-1.3650 1.3590 1.3500
USD/JPY 110.50 110.10-109.20 108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (15th January 2018)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1339.22/oz and low of US$1321.48/oz. Gold was up by 1.140% at US$1337.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1267) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1349-1375 keeping stop loss closing above 1375 and targeting 1336-1326-1320 and 1309-1300. Buy above 1336-1300 with risk below 1300, targeting 1349-1357 and 1366-1376.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,336
S2     1,326-1,320
S3     1,309
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,349
R2     1,358-1366
R3     1,376

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

74.860

Buy
20-DMA   1298.73 Sell
50-DMA  

1284.01

Sell
100-DMA   1290.87 Sell
200-DMA   1273.96 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   74.849 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   16.025 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.26/oz and low of US$16.95/oz. Silver settled up by 1.53% at US$17.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.10-14.60 targeting 17.45-17.75 and 18.00-18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 14.60. Sell below 17.45-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 17.10-16.70-16.35 and 15.80-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.10
S2     16.70
S3     16.35-15.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.45-17.70
R2     18.08
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.961 Buy
20-DMA   16.75 Sell
50-DMA   16.67 Sell
100-DMA   16.93 Sell
200-DMA   16.90 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   73.471 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.202 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$64.48/bbl, intraday low of US$63.05/bbl and settled up by 1.322% to close at US$64.38/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 64.75-66.90 with stop loss at 67.00; targeting and 64.20-63.50 and 63.00-62.50-61.90. Buy above 64.20-62.50 with risk daily closing below 62.50 and targeting 64.75-65.30 and 66.00-66.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.20
S2     63.50
S3     63.00-62.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.75-65.30
R2     66.00
R3     66.9

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   82.114 Sell
20-DMA   60.66 Buy
50-DMA   58.49 Buy
100-DMA   54.50 Buy
200-DMA   51.19 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.799 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.2030/EUR, high of US$1.2217/EUR and settled the day up by 1.379% to close at US$1.2196/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2250-1.2420 targeting 1.2200-1.2160 and 1.2095-1.1990-1.1900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2420. Buy above 1.2200-1.1990 with risk below 1.1990 targeting 1.2230-1.2300 and 1.2360-1.2420.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2200
S2     1.2160-1.2095
S3     1.1990

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2240-1.2300
R2     1.2360
R3     1.2420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.214 Buy
20-DMA   1.1955 Buy
50-DMA   1.1844 Sell
100-DMA   1.1837 Sell
200-DMA   1.1558 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.735 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.078 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3532/GBP, high of US$1.3743/GBP and settled the day up by 1.392% to close at US$1.3725/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3263) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3750-1.3975 with targets at 1.3700-1.3650 and 1.3590-1.3500-1.3450. Buy above 1.3700-1.3500 with stop loss closing below 1.3500 targeting 1.3750-1.3830 and 1.3900-1.3975.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3700-1.3650
S2     1.3590
S3     1.3500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3750-1.3830
R2     1.3900
R3     1.3975

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

70.435

Buy
20-DMA   1.3487 Sell
50-DMA   1.3372 Sell
100-DMA   1.3295 Buy
200-DMA   1.3089 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.324 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0563 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.90/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.69/USD and settled the day down by 0.170% at JPY111.05/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.61), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.00-110.10 and 109.20-108.0. Long positions above 111.00-108.50 with targets of 111.60-112.50 and 113.20-114.00-114.75 with stop below 110.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.50
S2     110.10-109.20
S3     108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00-111.60
R2     112.00
R3     112.50-113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.364 Buy
20-DMA   112.54 Buy
50-DMA   112.65 Buy
100-DMA   112.19 Buy
200-DMA   111.68 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   7.844 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.377 Sell

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