AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks stepped back from a record high on Wednesday as the region’s resource shares were hit by falling oil and commodity prices while digital currencies tumbled on worries about tighter regulations. World shares have rallied since the start of this year on prospects of strong global growth and improving earnings in the U.S. and elsewhere. In the currency market, the dollar was broadly weak, sticking near a three year low against a basket of currencies. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent later in the day, with analysts expecting three hikes this year. Investors also expect the European Central Bank’s eventual exit from stimulus as a major market theme for this year Three sources close to the ECB’s policy told Reuters that the ECB is unlikely to ditch a pledge to keep buying bonds at next week’s meeting just yet as rate setters need more time to assess the outlook for the economy and the euro. The ECB last week signaled a growing appetite for revising its policy message in “early” 2018, and specifically a promise to continue its 2.55 trillion euro money-printing program until inflation heads back to target
  • The dollar fell to a three-year low against its peers on Wednesday, losing its earlier bounce as the euro edged back after shaking off a setback to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chances of forging a “grand coalition” in Germany. The dollar index momentarily recovered to as high as 90.826 on Tuesday after slipping steadily this month on investors’ expectations that major central banks would eventually windback stimulus to normalise monetary policy The euro had also been held back on Tuesday as members of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) in one of Germany’s regions voted against talks with Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), stoking worries over whether she can form a “grand coalition”. The dollar was 0.2 percent higher at 110.675 yen , inching back towards a high of 110.985 marked on Tuesday. It stooped to a four-month low of 110.245 on Monday amid speculation that the BOJ could eventually begin looking for a way out of its super accommodative policy.
  • Gold prices gained in Asia on Wednesday with a weaker dolalr helping demand for the precious metal priced int he US currency. Overnight, gold prices traded roughly unchanged on Tuesday, shrugging off a rebound in the dollar from three-year lows as data showed traders remained bullish on the precious metal despite the uptick in demand for risker assets. Gold prices remained close to four-month highs amid ongoing demand for the yellow metal as data showed traders increased their bullish bets on gold for the fourth-straight week. Speculative net long position in gold rose by 40,000 contracts to a net long 203,300 contracts, a six-week high, according to the most recent COT report. Gold’s strong start to the year comes against continued risk-on sentiment as global equities extended their gains from 2017, rising to all-time highs. Some market participants, however, said they expected the yellow metal to range trade in 2018 amid expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. In a rising interest rate environment, investor appetite for gold weakens as the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal increases relative to other interest-bearing assets such as bonds.
  • Oil prices gave away earlier gains on Wednesday as analysts warned of a downward correction after prices have gained more than 13 percent over the past month. Despite the decline, overall oil markets remained well supported on the back of tightening supply and strong global demand. The tighter fundamentals lifted both crude futures benchmarks about 13 percent above levels in early December, helped by production curbs by OPEC and Russia, as well as by healthy demand growth. Norbert Ruecker, head of commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer, said a price "correction should occur... (as) hedge fund expectations for further rising prices have reached excessive levels." He said this was especially the case as political risk factors that have helped boost Brent, including tensions in Qatar, and the Kurdish region of Iraq and in Iran have so far not caused significant supply disruptions. Money managers have raised the bullish positions in WTI and Brent crude futures and options to a record, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Intercontinental Exchange. Still, traders and analysts said overall oil markets were well supported, and steep price falls unlikely. The OPEC and Russia have continued to withhold production since January last year and the cuts are set to last through 2018. One factor that in 2017 prevented crude prices from rising further was a surge in U.S. production. Despite a recent drop due to extreme cold, U.S. crude output is expected to soon break through 10 million barrels per day (bpd), challenging top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th January 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,340 1,349 1,358-1366
Silver-XAG 17.45-17.70 18.08 18.60
Crude Oil 64.20 64.75-65.30 66.00
EURO/USD 1.2290-1.2360 1.2420 1.2500
GBP/USD 1.3820 1.3900 1.3975
USD/JPY 111.00-111.60 112.00 112.50-113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th January 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,335 1,326-1,320 1,309
Silver-XAG 17.10 16.70 16.35-15.80
Crude Oil 63.50 63.00-62.50 61.50
EURO/USD 1.2200 1.2160-1.2095 1.1990
GBP/USD 1.3750 1.3700-1.3650 1.3590
USD/JPY 110.50 110.10-109.20 108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (17th January 2018)
GOLD-XAU Neutral
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1342.18/oz and low of US$1331.74/oz. Gold was up by 0.140% at US$1338.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1267) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1340-1375 keeping stop loss closing above 1375 and targeting 1335-1326-1320 and 1309-1300. Buy above 1335-1300 with risk below 1300, targeting 1340-1349-1357 and 1366-1376.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,335
S2     1,326-1,320
S3     1,309
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,340
R2     1,349
R3     1,358-1366

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

70.658

Buy
20-DMA   1306.53 Sell
50-DMA  

1286.44

Sell
100-DMA   1291.59 Sell
200-DMA   1274.80 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.436 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   16.537 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$17.35/oz and low of US$16.78/oz. Silver settled down by 0.866% at US$17.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.10-14.60 targeting 17.45-17.75 and 18.00-18.30-18.60; stop breakage below 14.60. Sell below 17.45-18.60 with stop loss above 18.60; targeting 17.10-16.70-16.35 and 15.80-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.10
S2     16.70
S3     16.35-15.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.45-17.70
R2     18.08
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.526 Buy
20-DMA   16.86 Sell
50-DMA   16.68 Sell
100-DMA   16.93 Sell
200-DMA   16.89 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   68.161 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.192 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$64.80/bbl, intraday low of US$63.36/bbl and settled up by 0.605% to close at US$63.87/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 64.20-66.90 with stop loss at 67.00; targeting and 63.50-63.00 and 62.50-61.90-61.50. Buy above 63.50-61.50 with risk daily closing below 61.50 and targeting 64.20-64.75-65.30 and 66.00-66.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.50
S2     63.00-62.50
S3     61.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.20
R2     64.75-65.30
R3     66.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.954 Sell
20-DMA   61.32 Buy
50-DMA   58.79 Buy
100-DMA   54.84 Buy
200-DMA   51.31 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.121 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.757 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.2186/EUR, high of US$1.2283/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0244% to close at US$1.2259/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2290-1.2420 targeting 1.2200-1.2160 and 1.2095-1.1990-1.1900 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2420. Buy above 1.2200-1.1990 with risk below 1.1990 targeting 1.2230-1.2300 and 1.2360-1.2420.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2200
S2     1.2160-1.2095
S3     1.1990

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2290-1.2360
R2     1.2420
R3     1.2500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   73.518 Buy
20-DMA   1.1984 Buy
50-DMA   1.1858 Sell
100-DMA   1.1841 Sell
200-DMA   1.1564 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.876 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0094 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3741/GBP, high of US$1.3804/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0362% to close at US$1.3790/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3263) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3820-1.3975 with targets at 1.3750-1.3700-1.3650 and 1.3590-1.3500. Buy above 1.3750-1.3500 with stop loss closing below 1.3500 targeting 1.3820 and 1.3900-1.3975.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3750
S2     1.3700-1.3650
S3     1.3590

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3820
R2     1.3900
R3     1.3975

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

70.394

Buy
20-DMA   1.3533 Sell
50-DMA   1.3400 Sell
100-DMA   1.3313 Buy
200-DMA   1.3103 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.976 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0099 Buy

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.23/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.97/USD and settled the day down by 0.0696% at JPY110.44/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.61), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.00-110.10 and 109.20-108.0. Long positions above 111.00-108.50 with targets of 111.60-112.50 and 113.20-114.00-114.75 with stop below 110.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.50
S2     110.10-109.20
S3     108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00-111.60
R2     112.00
R3     112.50-113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.540 Buy
20-DMA   112.33 Buy
50-DMA   112.51 Buy
100-DMA   112.22 Buy
200-DMA   111.67 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   14.471 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.525 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING