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  • U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs on steel and aluminum will distort global trade and cost jobs, Australia’s trade minister said on Friday, highlighting the risk of retaliatory measures as Asian exporters sought more detail on the plans. Fears of an escalating trade war hit the share prices of Asian steelmakers and manufacturers supplying U.S. markets particularly hard on Friday following a rough night on Wall Street. Trump said the duties of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum would be formally announced next week, although White House officials later said some details still needed to be ironed out. Steel has become key focus for Trump, who pledged to restore the U.S. industry and punish what he sees as unfair trade practices, particularly by China. Although China only accounts for 2 percent of U.S. steel imports, its massive industry expansion has helped produce a global glut of steel that has driven down prices. South Korea, the third-largest steel exporter to the United States after Canada and Brazil, said it will keep talking to U.S. officials until Washington’s plans for tariffs are finalised. Asian steelmakers fear U.S. tariffs could result in their domestic markets becoming flooded with steel products that have nowhere else to go. The Trump administration also cited national security interests for its action, saying the United States needs domestic supplies for its tanks and warships. Contrary to the action announced by Trump on Thursday, the Department of Defense had recommended targeted steel tariffs and a delay in aluminum duties. India also raised concerns about the use of the national security interests provisions. Trump believes the tariffs will safeguard American jobs but many economists say the impact of price increases for consumers of steel and aluminum, such as the auto and oil industries, will be to destroy more jobs than they create.
  • The U.S. dollar edged lower against other major currencies on Friday, pulling away from six-week highs as concerns sparked by news of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports overshadowed upbeat comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans on Thursday to impose tariffs of 25% on imported steel and 10% on aluminum, in a move to “protect U.S. industry”. The move sparked concerns over potential trade wars, which would have a negative impact on the U.S. economy, sending equity markets sharply lower. The news overshadowed positive remarks by Fed Chair Powell, who told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday that there was no evidence the U.S. economy is overheating Two days earlier, the Fed president had reiterated that the U.S. central bank would likely move forward with gradual increases in interest rates. Separately, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said on Thursday that four interest-rate hikes this year would constitute a "gradual" tightening.
  • The yen surged against the dollar on Friday after Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank will consider an exit from its ultra easy monetary policy if its inflation target is achieved in the year ending in March 2020. Speculation regarding when the BOJ, which has significantly lagged its peers in moving toward policy normalization, would explore an exit from easy policy has been one of the key themes impacting the yen, adding to global policy uncertainty. Some in the currency market had suspected the BOJ was quietly moving toward a policy exit, despite its reiterations that it would stick to easing. And while the BOJ may not end easing right away, investors received the clearest indication yet as to when the central bank intends to begin stepping away from unorthodox policies. The BOJ on Wednesday raised eyebrows after it reduced the amount of 25- to 40-year JGBs it purchased at a regular debt-buying operation to 70 billion yen ($662.25 mn) from 80 bn yen. The dollar was already on the backfoot even before BOJ's Kuroda spoke, having pulled sharply back from six-week highs after U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum took the wind out of the greenback's week-long recovery. U.S. oil prices were mixed on Friday, after three days of declines, but any gains were limited as Asian share markets extended a selloff on Wall Street after news of planned U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum raised fears of a trade war. President Donald Trump announced he would impose hefty tariffs on the two metals to protect U.S. producers, risking retaliation from major trade partners like China, Europe and neighboring Canada. U.S. crude is on track for a 4 percent drop this week, its first weekly decline in three, having given up much of the gains in recent weeks when sentiment was boosted by a fall in inventories at the Cushing delivery point for WTI. U.S. crude stocks rose last week even as refineries hiked output, increasing by 3 million barrels, compared with expectations for an increase of 2.1 million barrels. Still, stocks fell again at Cushing in Oklahoma, with inventories down by 1.2 million barrels, the 10th consecutive week of declines, the Energy Information Administration said this week. The OPEC will hold a dinner on Monday in Houston with U.S. shale firms, the latest sign of the producer group widening talks about how best to tame a global oil glut. U.S. crude output slipped in the last month of 2017, but in November hit an all-time high of 10.057 mn bpd. Weekly data showed another record and further gains are expected.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
2nd March 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1324-1,331 1,340 1,350
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40-17.70 18.20
Crude Oil 61.00-61.50 62.20 62.80-63.40
EURO/USD 1.2300 1.2390-1.2450 1.2520
GBP/USD 1.3800 1.3855-1.3900 1.3950
USD/JPY 107.50 108.45 109.00-110.10

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
2nd March 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,313-1,306 1,300 1,287
Silver-XAG 16.20-15.90 15.60 15.00
Crude Oil 60.50-59.90 59.00 58.05
EURO/USD 1.2210-1.2160 1.2090 1.2005
GBP/USD 1.3765 1.3700-1.3620 1.3550
USD/JPY 106.70 106.00-105.50 104.90

Intra-Day Strategy (2nd March 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1321.03/oz and low of US$1302.66/oz. Gold was down by 0.0902% at US$1316.87/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 20DMA (1329) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1324-1350 keeping stop loss closing above 1350 and targeting 1314-1306 and 1300-1287. Buy above 1320-1310 with risk below 1310, targeting 1331-1340 and 1350-1358-1366.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,313-1,306
S2     1,300
S3     1,287
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1324-1,331
R2     1,340
R3     1,350

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.604

Buy
20-DMA   1331.54 Sell
50-DMA  

1323.31

Buy
100-DMA   1299.89 Buy
200-DMA   1286.59 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.071 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.197 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$16.53/oz and low of US$16.14/oz. Silver settled down by 0.366% at US$16.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.82), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.20-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.20-15.90
S2     15.60
S3     15.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40-17.70
R3     18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.491 Buy
20-DMA   16.58 Sell
50-DMA   16.81 Sell
100-DMA   16.83 Sell
200-DMA   16.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   32.645 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0108 Buy Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$61.72/bbl, intraday low of US$60.09/bbl and settled down by 0.341% to close at US$61.20/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 62.20-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 62.20-61.50 and 61.00-60.50. Buy above 61.50-60.50 with risk daily closing below 60.50 and targeting 62.20-62.80-63.40 and 64.00-64.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     60.50-59.90
S2     59.00
S3     58.05

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     61.00-61.50
R2     62.20
R3     62.80-63.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.352 Sell
20-DMA   61.48 Sell
50-DMA   62.33 Sell
100-DMA   59.03 Buy
200-DMA   53.45 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.3084 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.154 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.2154/EUR, high of US$1.2273/EUR and settled the day up by 0.598% to close at US$1.2265/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2300-1.2520 targeting 1.2210-1.2160 and 1.2090-1.2005 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2600. Buy above 1.2300-1.2090 with risk below 1.2090 targeting 1.2390-1.2450-1.2520 and 1.2571-1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2210-1.2160
S2     1.2090
S3     1.2005

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2300
R2     1.2390-1.2450
R3     1.2520

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.878 Buy
20-DMA   1.2320 Buy
50-DMA   1.2223 Buy
100-DMA   1.1993 Buy
200-DMA   1.1802 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.708 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0016 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3710/GBP, high of US$1.3784/GBP and settled the day up by 0.101% to close at US$1.3773/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3431) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3800-1.3950 with targets at 1.3765-1.3700-1.3620 and 1.3550-1.3500. Buy above 1.3765-1.3550 with stop loss closing below 1.3550 targeting 1.3765-1.3855 and 1.3900-1.3950-1.4050.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3765
S2     1.3700-1.3620
S3     1.3550

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3800
R2     1.3855-1.3900
R3     1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.525

Buy
20-DMA   1.3917 Sell
50-DMA   1.3827 Buy
100-DMA   1.3549 Buy
200-DMA   1.3285 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.856 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0013 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY106.55/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.52/USD and settled the day down by 0.605% at JPY106.66/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.69), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.50-110.00 with risk above 110.00 targeting 106.90-106.00-105.50 and 104.90-104.20. Long positions above 106.90-104.90 with targets of 107.50-107.90-108.45 and 109.00-110.10 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.70
S2     106.00-105.50
S3     104.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50
R2     108.45
R3     109.00-110.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.105 Buy
20-DMA   107.86 Sell
50-DMA   110.03 Sell
100-DMA   111.44 Sell
200-DMA   111.26 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   40.429 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.869 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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