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Daily Market Lookup

  • A relief rally swept across Asian share markets on Monday after the latest U.S. jobs report managed to impress with its strength while also easing fears of inflation and faster rate hikes, a neat feat that whetted risk appetites globally. Inflation worries faded on Friday after U.S. data showed nonfarm payrolls jumped by 313,000 jobs last month, but annual growth in average hourly earnings slowed to 2.6 percent after a spike in January. The pullback in wages tempered speculation the Federal Reserve would project four rate hikes - or dot plots - at its policy meeting next week, instead of the current three. The jobs news likewise lifted riskier currencies, including the Mexican peso and Canadian and Australian dollars, while weighing on the safe-haven yen Investors had trimmed holdings of yen last week on news U.S. President Donald Trump was prepared to meet with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, a potential breakthrough in nuclear tensions in the region. U.S. officials on Sunday defended Trump’s decision, saying the move was not just for show and not a gift to Pyongyang. The mix of brisk U.S. economic growth and restrained inflation was a positive one for most commodities, with industrial metals and oil performing well.
  • The dollar’s momentum from Friday eased in morning trade in Asia Monday, with the US dollar index struggling to remain above the 90 handle amid news that North Korea might hold talks with the U.S. and halt nuclear testing helped boost market confidence while a U.S. plan to institute tariffs on steel and aluminum moved forward but narrower than expected. The dollar plunged last week to as low as 89.41 but rose again after signs of a global trade war initiated by U.S. president Trump’s tariff plan on imported steel and aluminum receded. Trump exempted North American partners Canada and Mexico from the tariffs and left the doors open for other allies to be exempted as well. The news regarding a wider exemption for the tariffs added to discussions between the U.S. and North Korea of a potential high-level meeting between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which boosted investors’ confidence in the greenback.
  • Any trade war with the United States will only bring disaster to the world economy, Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said on Sunday, as Beijing stepped up its criticism on proposed metals tariffs by Washington amid fears it could shatter global growth Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan attends a news conference on the sidelines of the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing, China March 11, 2018. China Daily via REUTERS After pressure from allies, the United States has opened the way for more exemptions from tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum that U.S. President Donald Trump set last week. On Saturday, the European Union and Japan urged the United States to grant them exemptions from metal import tariffs, with Tokyo calling for “calm-headed behavior.” But the target of Trump’s ire is China, whose capacity expansions have helped add to global surpluses of steel. China has repeatedly vowed to defend its “legitimate rights and interests” if targeted by U.S. trade actions.
  • Oil markets climbed on Monday on the back of a drop in the number of U.S. rigs drilling for more production and as the U.S. economy continued to create jobs, which industry hopes will drive higher fuel demand. The U.S. economy added the biggest number of jobs in more than 1-1/2 years in February, with non-farm payrolls jumping by 313,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. In oil markets, U.S. energy companies last week cut oil rigs for the first time in almost two months RIG-OL-USA-BHI, with drillers cutting back four rigs, to 796, Baker Hughes (GE.N) energy services firm said on Friday. Despite the lower rig count, which is an early indicator of future output, activity remains much higher than a year ago when, when just 617 rigs were active, and most analysts expect U.S. crude oil production C-OUT-T-EIA, which has already risen by over a fifth since mid-2016, to 10.37 million barrels per day (bpd), to rise further. That’s more than top exporter Saudi Arabia producers and almost as much as Russia pumps out, at nearly 11 million bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th March 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1324-1,331 1,340 1,350-1,358
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 62.20-62.70 63.10 64.20-64.95
EURO/USD 1.2390 1.2450-1.2520 1.2560
GBP/USD 1.3900 1.3950 1.4070-1.4150
USD/JPY 106.70 107.50 108.45-109.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th March 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,313-1,306 1,300 1,288
Silver-XAG 16.25-15.90 15.60 15.30
Crude Oil 61.50 61.00-60.50 59.90
EURO/USD 1.2300 1.2210-1.2160 1.2100
GBP/USD 1.3855-1.3800 1.3765 1.3700-1.3620
USD/JPY 106.00 105.50-104.90 104.50

Intra-Day Strategy (12th March 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1325.08/oz and low of US$1312.71/oz. Gold was up by 0.129% at US$1323.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 20DMA (1329) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1324-1358 keeping stop loss closing above 1358 and targeting 1314-1306 and 1300-1294. Buy above 1320-1310 with risk below 1310, targeting 1324-1331-1340 and 1350-1358.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,313-1,306
S2     1,300
S3     1,288
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1324-1,331
R2     1,340
R3     1,350-1,358

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.805

Buy
20-DMA   1329.91 Sell
50-DMA  

1329.37

Buy
100-DMA   1302.50 Buy
200-DMA   1289.06 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.612 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.887 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.67/oz and low of US$16.34/oz. Silver settled up by 0.851% at US$16.58/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.82), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.20-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.25-15.90
S2     15.60
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.865 Buy
20-DMA   16.56 Sell
50-DMA   16.82 Sell
100-DMA   16.73 Sell
200-DMA   16.80 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.370 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0599 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$62.04/bbl, intraday low of US$60.07/bbl and settled up by 2.971% to close at US$62.02/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 62.20-64.95 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 61.50-60.50 and 59.90-59.00-58.60. Buy above 61.50-59.90 with risk daily closing below 59.50 and targeting 62.20-62.70 and 63.10-64.00-64.95.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     61.50
S2     61.00-60.50
S3     59.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.20-62.70
R2     63.10
R3     64.20-64.95

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.657 Sell
20-DMA   61.68 Sell
50-DMA   62.62 Sell
100-DMA   59.63 Buy
200-DMA   53.83 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.871 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.146 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.2272/EUR, high of US$1.2333/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0243% to close at US$1.2307/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2390-1.2600 targeting 1.2300-1.2210 and 1.2160-1.2090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2600. Buy above 1.23000-1.2090 with risk below 1.2090 targeting 1.2450-1.2520 and 1.2571-1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2300
S2     1.2210-1.2160
S3     1.2100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2390
R2     1.2450-1.2520
R3     1.2560

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.749 Buy
20-DMA   1.2336 Buy
50-DMA   1.2271 Buy
100-DMA   1.2021 Buy
200-DMA   1.1831 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.781 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0024 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3787/GBP, high of US$1.3888/GBP and settled the day up by 0.347% to close at US$1.3853/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3431) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3900-1.4150 with targets at 1.3855-1.3800-1.3765 and 1.3700-1.3620. Buy above 1.3855-1.3620 with stop loss closing below 1.3620 targeting 1.3900-1.3950 and 1.4070-1.4150.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3855-1.3800
S2     1.3765
S3     1.3700-1.3620

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3900
R2     1.3950
R3     1.4070-1.4150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.126

Buy
20-DMA   1.3908 Sell
50-DMA   1.3881 Buy
100-DMA   1.3587 Buy
200-DMA   1.3315 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.467 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0016 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY106.15/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.04/USD and settled the day up by 0.593% at JPY106.80/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.70-109.00 with risk above 109.00 targeting 106.00-105.50 and 104.90-104.20. Long positions above 105.50-104.90 with targets of 106.00-106.70-107.50 and 107.90-108.45 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.00
S2     105.50-104.90
S3     104.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.70
R2     107.50
R3     108.45-109.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.855 Buy
20-DMA   106.75 Sell
50-DMA   109.03 Sell
100-DMA   111.00 Sell
200-DMA   111.08 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   64.188 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.796 Sell

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