AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks stalled on Tuesday as Wall Street shares lost steam, while the dollar sagged on the back of declining U.S. yields. Investors were focused on U.S. inflation data due later in the day (1230 GMT) for clues on the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate rises this year. The index had surged 1.5 percent on Monday following firm U.S. jobs numbers on Friday, while low wage growth eased concerns about inflation and faster central bank rate hikes. But a mixed performance by U.S. shares overnight cooled investor risk appetite in Asia. Some market participants say a political scandal engulfing Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government is raising doubts about his ability to pursue economic reform, undermining stock market sentiment. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday blocked Singapore-based semiconductor maker Broadcom Ltd’s (AVGO.O) takeover bid of Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O) on grounds of national security, ending what would have been the technology industry’s biggest deal ever.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to slap tariffs on imported steel and aluminum could spark retaliation from other countries and lead to unforeseen consequences, the head of the World Trade Organization said on Monday. Trump last week said he would impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum, sending countries scrambling to negotiate exemptions or consider retaliatory measures. Trump said that Canada and Mexico would be exempt from the tariffs. The United States has been in prolonged negotiations with Canada and Mexico in efforts to revise the North American Free Trade agreement.
  • The GBP/USD is surprisingly resilient this week, climbing on thin volumes for Monday and hanging onto gains heading through Tuesday's early trading session, and the pair is trying to hold territory above 1.3900 as confidence begins to return to the Sterling on the back of renewed confidence after weeks of Brexit toe-dragging has capped off potential gains in the GBP with the UK Budget Report looming ahead in the Tuesday London session. The Greenback has been hobbled by constrained wage growth figures that were buried in the jobs report last Friday, leading to a two-way reaction in broad markets that saw equities and bond yields lift on the 313k jobs added to the American landscape, but a lack of wage growth implies that inflation expectations may be misplaced with more slack in the US employment scenario than previously anticipated, and the US Dollar has been drifting as a result. The US CPI figures will be dropping at 12:30 GMT today, and a clearer read of US inflation will be expected, with the headline year-on-year CPI forecast at 2.2%, a slight uptick from the previous 2.1%. A beat for the CPI could send the US Dollar driving higher, but a miss could imply that structural inflation for the US may not be as close at hand as many market participants are expecting. Before US inflation the UK will be posting their Budget Report for the next fiscal year which will include updated growth and inflation forecasts for the kingdom. The Budget Report drops at 11:30 GMT and positive revisions to the UK government's budget forecasts could go a long way to adding to the boost the Sterling is receiving on the back of recent revelations that a post-Brexit deal may be struck between the European Union (EU) and the UK. An EU summit scheduled for March 22nd through the 24th is expected to yield further details.
  • Oil prices fell on Tuesday, extending falls from the previous day, as the relentless rise in U.S. crude output weighed on markets. Both crude benchmarks dropped by around 1 percent the previous session. U.S. crude oil production soared past 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in late 2017, overtaking output by top exporter Saudi Arabia. U.S. production is expected to rise above 11 million bpd by late 2018, taking the top spot from Russia, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The rising U.S. output comes largely on the back of onshore shale oil production. U.S. crude production from major shale formations is expected to rise by 131,000 bpd in April from the previous month to a record high 6.95 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a monthly productivity report on Monday. That expected increase would top the 105,000 bpd climb in March from the previous month, to what was then expected to be a record high of 6.82 million bpd, the EIA said. The EIA is due to publish its latest weekly U.S. production data on Wednesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th March 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,331 1,340 1,350-1,358
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 62.00-62.70 63.10 64.20-64.95
EURO/USD 1.2390 1.2450-1.2520 1.2560
GBP/USD 1.3900 1.3950 1.4070-1.4150
USD/JPY 106.70 107.50 108.45-109.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th March 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,320 1,313-1,306 1,300
Silver-XAG 16.25-15.90 15.60 15.30
Crude Oil 61.00-60.50 59.80 58.90
EURO/USD 1.2300 1.2210-1.2160 1.2100
GBP/USD 1.3855-1.3800 1.3765 1.3700-1.3620
USD/JPY 106.00 105.50-104.90 104.50

Intra-Day Strategy (13th March 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1324.18/oz and low of US$1314.99/oz. Gold was down by 0.0249% at US$1322.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 20DMA (1329) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1324-1358 keeping stop loss closing above 1358 and targeting 1314-1306 and 1300-1294. Buy above 1320-1310 with risk below 1310, targeting 1324-1331-1340 and 1350-1358.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,320
S2     1,313-1,306
S3     1,300
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,331
R2     1,340
R3     1,350-1,358

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.805

Buy
20-DMA   1329.91 Sell
50-DMA  

1329.37

Buy
100-DMA   1302.50 Buy
200-DMA   1289.06 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.612 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.887 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$16.59/oz and low of US$16.41/oz. Silver settled down by 0.362% at US$16.51/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.82), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.20-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.25-15.90
S2     15.60
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.398 Buy
20-DMA   16.55 Sell
50-DMA   16.80 Sell
100-DMA   16.72 Sell
200-DMA   16.79 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.328 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0610 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$62.20/bbl, intraday low of US$60.62/bbl and settled down by 1.033% to close at US$61.29/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 62.20-64.95 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 61.50-60.50 and 59.90-59.00-58.60. Buy above 61.50-59.90 with risk daily closing below 59.50 and targeting 62.20-62.70 and 63.10-64.00-64.95.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     61.00-60.50
S2     59.80
S3     58.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.00-62.70
R2     63.10
R3     64.20-64.95

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.804 Sell
20-DMA   61.76 Sell
50-DMA   62.62 Sell
100-DMA   59.71 Buy
200-DMA   53.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.333 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.229 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.2289/EUR, high of US$1.2345/EUR and settled the day up by 0.194% to close at US$1.2333/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2390-1.2600 targeting 1.2300-1.2210 and 1.2160-1.2090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2600. Buy above 1.23000-1.2090 with risk below 1.2090 targeting 1.2450-1.2520 and 1.2571-1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2300
S2     1.2210-1.2160
S3     1.2100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2390
R2     1.2450-1.2520
R3     1.2560

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.871 Buy
20-DMA   1.2338 Buy
50-DMA   1.2284 Buy
100-DMA   1.2031 Buy
200-DMA   1.1842 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   31.293 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0013 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3840/GBP, high of US$1.3917/GBP and settled the day up by 0.382% to close at US$1.3903/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3431) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3900-1.4150 with targets at 1.3855-1.3800-1.3765 and 1.3700-1.3620. Buy above 1.3855-1.3620 with stop loss closing below 1.3620 targeting 1.3900-1.3950 and 1.4070-1.4150.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3855-1.3800
S2     1.3765
S3     1.3700-1.3620

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3900
R2     1.3950
R3     1.4070-1.4150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.024

Buy
20-DMA   1.3911 Sell
50-DMA   1.3888 Buy
100-DMA   1.3594 Buy
200-DMA   1.3320 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   73.560 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0098 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY106.30/USD and made an intraday high of JPY106.90/USD and settled the day down by 0.309% at JPY106.43/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.70-109.00 with risk above 109.00 targeting 106.00-105.50 and 104.90-104.20. Long positions above 105.50-104.90 with targets of 106.00-106.70-107.50 and 107.90-108.45 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.00
S2     105.50-104.90
S3     104.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.70
R2     107.50
R3     108.45-109.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.304 Buy
20-DMA   106.57 Sell
50-DMA   108.80 Sell
100-DMA   110.87 Sell
200-DMA   111.03 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.852 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.692 Sell

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