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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares eased on Wednesday amid fears of rising U.S. protectionism as President Donald Trump fired his Secretary of State, regarded as a moderate in his administration, and eyes hefty tariffs on Chinese imports. The combination left investors scurrying for safety as global equities took a knock, the dollar fell and bonds rose. Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Tuesday after a series of public rifts over policy on North Korea, Russia and Iran, replacing his chief diplomat with hawkish CIA Director Mike Pompeo. Critics said the move would sow more instability in the volatile Trump administration and marks the departure of another moderate who sought to emphasize the United States’ strong ties to its allies. Separately, Trump is also looking to impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese imports, targeted at information technology, consumer electronics and telecoms, two people who had discussed the issue with the Trump administration said. Investors suspect policy makers who favor protectionism will also seek to use the currency as a trade weapon, if not overtly then through benign neglect. Tillerson’s exit and the potential for new import duties on China coincided with subdued U.S. consumer price data with annual core inflation, at 1.8 percent, meeting expectations. It was the fear of higher inflation and in-turn faster U.S. rate hikes that had hit global shares in early February. But Tuesday’s data did little to change market expectations of Fed rate rises with an increase next week now fully priced-in.
  • China’s industrial output expanded faster than expected at the start of the year, suggesting the world’s second-biggest economy has sustained solid momentum despite a crackdown on polluting industries and a campaign to reduce risks in the financial system. Fixed asset investment also handily beat forecasts, while retail sales growth improved from December but came in slightly below expectations for the first two months of the year. Industrial output rose 7.2 percent in the first two months this year from the same period a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, surpassing analysts’ estimates for a rise of 6.1 percent and picking up sharply from 6.2 percent in December. However, data from China early in the year is typically treated with caution due to distortions caused by the timing of the week-long Lunar New Year celebrations, which fell in late January 2017 but started in mid-February this year. China’s fixed-asset investment growth unexpectedly picked up to 7.9 percent in January-February. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted it would cool to 7.0 percent from a 7.2 percent pace in all of 2017. Retail sales rose 9.7 percent, slightly missing expectations of 9.8 percent growth but up from 9.4 percent in December.
  • Gold prices rose amid an uptick in safe-haven demand on concerns about turmoil in the Trump administration after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was fired on Tuesday. President Donald Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, after a falling out on how best to tackle the Iran nuclear deal. Trump hired Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo as Tillerson’s replacement. “When you look at the Iran deal, I think it's terrible. I guess he thought it was OK,” Trump said. “I wanted to either break it or do something and he felt a little bit differently, so we were not really thinking the same.” The comes less than week after Trump’s top economic advisor Gary Cohn resigned from the White House after Trump proceeded with tariffs on aluminium and steel imports. Also adding to positive sentiment on gold prices was an inflation report that while in-line with forecasts did little to lift the prospect of a fourth rate hike being added to the Federal Reserve's rate-hike projections or so-called dot plot. “February’s CPI report was supportive of the expectation for inflation to return to trend,” said BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP). “We expect core goods pricing to become weaker than in recent months on account of fading vehicles pricing strength, but for core services to remain solid, due in large part to a strong labour market and economy supporting shelter prices.”

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th March 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,331 1,340 1,350-1,358
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 61.00-62.00 62.70 63.10-64.20
EURO/USD 1.2450-1.2520 1.2560 1.2600
GBP/USD 1.4000 1.4070-1.4150 1.4250
USD/JPY 106.70 107.50 108.45-109.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th March 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,320 1,313-1,306 1,300
Silver-XAG 16.50-15.90 15.60 15.30
Crude Oil 60.50-59.80 58.90 57.80
EURO/USD 1.2300 1.2300 1.2210-1.2160
GBP/USD 1.3950-1.3900 1.3855 1.3800-1.3765
USD/JPY 106.00 105.50-104.90 104.50

Intra-Day Strategy (14th March 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1328.22/oz and low of US$131.77/oz. Gold was up by 0.260% at US$1326.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 20DMA (1329) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1324-1358 keeping stop loss closing above 1358 and targeting 1314-1306 and 1300-1294. Buy above 1320-1310 with risk below 1310, targeting 1324-1331-1340 and 1350-1358.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,320
S2     1,313-1,306
S3     1,300
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,331
R2     1,340
R3     1,350-1,358

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.805

Buy
20-DMA   1329.91 Sell
50-DMA  

1329.37

Buy
100-DMA   1302.50 Buy
200-DMA   1289.06 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.612 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.887 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$16.65/oz and low of US$16.44/oz. Silver settled down by 0.362% at US$16.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.82), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.20-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50-15.90
S2     15.60
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.702 Buy
20-DMA   16.54 Sell
50-DMA   16.79 Sell
100-DMA   16.72 Sell
200-DMA   16.79 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.784 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0457 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$61.94/bbl, intraday low of US$60.27/bbl and settled down by 0.750% to close at US$60.86/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 61.00-64.20 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 60.50-59.90 and 59.00-58.60. Buy above 60.50-57.80 with risk daily closing below 57.80 and targeting 61.00-62.20-62.70 and 63.10-64.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     60.50-59.80
S2     58.90
S3     57.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     61.00-62.00
R2     62.70
R3     63.10-64.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.438 Sell
20-DMA   61.76 Sell
50-DMA   62.60 Sell
100-DMA   59.80 Buy
200-DMA   53.96 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   40.937 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.289 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.2313/EUR, high of US$1.2406/EUR and settled the day up by 0.194% to close at US$1.2391/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2390-1.2600 targeting 1.2300-1.2210 and 1.2160-1.2090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2600. Buy above 1.23000-1.2090 with risk below 1.2090 targeting 1.2450-1.2520 and 1.2571-1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2300
S2     1.2300
S3     1.2210-1.2160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2450-1.2520
R2     1.2560
R3     1.2600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.152 Buy
20-DMA   1.2339 Buy
50-DMA   1.2293 Buy
100-DMA   1.2038 Buy
200-DMA   1.1848 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   60.863 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0022 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3873/GBP, high of US$1.3993/GBP and settled the day up by 0.424% to close at US$1.3962/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3431) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4000-1.4250 with targets at 1.3950-1.3900-1.3855 and 1.3800-1.3765-1.3700. Buy above 1.3950-1.3765 with stop loss closing below 1.3700 targeting 1.4000-1.4070 and 1.4150-1.4250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3950-1.3900
S2     1.3855
S3     1.3800-1.3765

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4000
R2     1.4070-1.4150
R3     1.4250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.811

Buy
20-DMA   1.3914 Sell
50-DMA   1.3899 Buy
100-DMA   1.3603 Buy
200-DMA   1.3326 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.421 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0098 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.24/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.28/USD and settled the day up by 0.0187% at JPY106.45/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.70-109.00 with risk above 109.00 targeting 106.00-105.50 and 104.90-104.20. Long positions above 105.50-104.90 with targets of 106.00-106.70-107.50 and 107.90-108.45 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.00
S2     105.50-104.90
S3     104.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.70
R2     107.50
R3     108.45-109.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.304 Buy
20-DMA   106.57 Sell
50-DMA   108.80 Sell
100-DMA   110.87 Sell
200-DMA   111.03 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.852 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.692 Sell

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