AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Stock markets slipped broadly on Thursday while government bonds attracted safe-haven demand amid mounting investor concerns that growing trade tensions would hurt the global economy. The Asian markets took their cues from Wall Street shares, which fell for the third straight session overnight after U.S. President Donald Trump sought to impose fresh tariffs on China, intensifying fears of a trade war. In the currency market, the dollar came under pressure again after the greenback managed a modest bounce overnight following three days of losses. The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.2379 EUR= after being pulled back from a six-day high of $1.2413 when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Wednesday struck a dovish tone regarding monetary policy.
  • Gold prices traded roughly flat Wednesday as the precious metal struggled to capitalize on dollar weakness despite weaker economic data and growing fears that Trump’s wish to slap tariffs on Chinese production could trigger a trade war. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that retail sales fell 0.1% last month. That confounded economists’ forecast for a 0.3% rise. That weighed on risk-on sentiment as market participants slashed their expectations for first-quarter economic growth. U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking to impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese imports and will target the technology and telecommunications sectors, Reuters reported Tuesday. That drew a sell-off in riskier assets Tuesday as traders feared that China would be force to retaliate, leading to a tit-for-tat trade war between the world’s largest two economies. Yet, offsetting those fears somewhat were reports that Trump is set to pick television commentator and economic analyst Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn as the top White House economic adviser. Mr Kudlow - a free trade advocate - reportedly accepted the position Wednesday, and conceded that he was “in accord' with Trump's policies. With just a week remaining until the Federal Reserve makes a decision to stick or twist on interest rates, gold prices have struggled for upside momentum.
  • The dollar was roughly unchanged against a basket of major currencies as upbeat U.S. wholesale inflation was offset by a fall in retail sales for the third-straight month. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that retail sales fell 0.1% last month. That confounded economists’ forecast for a 0.3% rise. The retail sales control group – which has a larger impact on U.S. GDP – fell 0.1% missing expectations for a 0.3% rise. The Labor Department said on Wednesday its producer price index for final demand increased 0.2% last month. In the 12 months through February, the PPI rose 2.5% after rising 2.2% in the prior month Falling Retail sales and raising costs weighed on sentiment as analysts slashed their U.S. economic growth estimates for the first quarter despite the overarching narrative of a fundamentally sound consumer environment. “The data set was a bad combination of firmer inflation and weaker consumption, thus we take down Q1 spending from 1.8% to 1.2% and GDP from 2.7% to 2.3%,” said Royal Bank of Canada. “We all know that consumer fundamentals are incredibly sound yet the consumer appears to be on a bit of a buyers strike over the last couple of months.” Also adding to dollar weakness was a rise in the yen on an uptick in safe-haven demand as market participants fear President Donald Trump’s reported wish to slap $60 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods could mark the start of a trade war. GBP/USD was flat at $1.3964 while the EUR/USD fell 0.12% to $1.2376 as the latter came under pressure after ECB president Mario Draghi cited the appreciation in the euro and “spillovers” of U.S. tariffs as potential factors that could weigh on EU inflation.
  • Oil prices were stable on Thursday, supported by healthy global demand but held back by the relentless rise in U.S. production that is undermining efforts led by producer cartel OPEC to cut supplies and prop up markets. Prices were receiving some support from healthy demand. The OPEC said on Wednesday that oil consumption was expected to grow by 1.62 million bpd in 2018. But looming over markets has been a relentless climb in U.S. crude output C-OUT-T-EIA, which hit another record last week by rising to 10.38 million bpd, up by more than 23 percent since mid-2016. Commercial crude inventories C-STK-T-EIA were up by 5 million barrels, at 430.93 million barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th March 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,331 1,340 1,350-1,358
Silver-XAG 17.00 17. 40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 62.00 62.70 63.10-64.20
EURO/USD 1.2450-1.2520 1.2560 1.2600
GBP/USD 1.4000 1.4070-1.4150 1.4250
USD/JPY 106.70 107.50 108.45-109.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th March 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,320 1,313-1,306 1,300
Silver-XAG 16.50-15.90 15.60 15.30
Crude Oil 61.00 60.50-59.80 58.90
EURO/USD 1.2350 1.2300 1.2210-1.2160
GBP/USD 1.3950-1.3900 1.3855 1.3800-1.3765
USD/JPY 106.00 105.50-104.90 104.50

Intra-Day Strategy (15th March 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1329.95/oz and low of US$1321.38/oz. Gold was down by 0.0701% at US$1324.84/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 20DMA (1329) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1324-1358 keeping stop loss closing above 1358 and targeting 1314-1306 and 1300-1294. Buy above 1320-1310 with risk below 1310, targeting 1324-1331-1340 and 1350-1358.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,320
S2     1,313-1,306
S3     1,300
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,331
R2     1,340
R3     1,350-1,358

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.805

Buy
20-DMA   1329.91 Sell
50-DMA  

1329.37

Buy
100-DMA   1302.50 Buy
200-DMA   1289.06 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.612 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.887 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$16.64/oz and low of US$16.49/oz. Silver settled down by 0.301% at US$16.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.82), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.20-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50-15.90
S2     15.60
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17. 40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.070 Buy
20-DMA   16.52 Sell
50-DMA   16.78 Sell
100-DMA   16.71 Sell
200-DMA   16.78 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   52.709 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0676 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$60.94/bbl, intraday low of US$60.17/bbl and settled up by 0.164% to close at US$60.94/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 61.00-64.20 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 60.50-59.90 and 59.00-58.60. Buy above 60.50-57.80 with risk daily closing below 57.80 and targeting 61.00-62.20-62.70 and 63.10-64.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     61.00
S2     60.50-59.80
S3     58.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.00
R2     62.70
R3     63.10-64.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.960 Sell
20-DMA   61.76 Sell
50-DMA   62.59 Sell
100-DMA   59.89 Buy
200-DMA   54.02 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.670 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.284 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.2346/EUR, high of US$1.2412/EUR and settled the day down by 0.193% to close at US$1.2367/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2390-1.2600 targeting 1.2300-1.2210 and 1.2160-1.2090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2600. Buy above 1.23000-1.2090 with risk below 1.2090 targeting 1.2450-1.2520 and 1.2571-1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2350
S2     1.2300
S3     1.2210-1.2160

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2450-1.2520
R2     1.2560
R3     1.2600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.720 Buy
20-DMA   1.2330 Buy
50-DMA   1.2298 Buy
100-DMA   1.2044 Buy
200-DMA   1.1854 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.911 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0020 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3924/GBP, high of US$1.3924/GBP and settled the day up by 0.007% to close at US$1.3963/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3431) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4000-1.4250 with targets at 1.3950-1.3900-1.3855 and 1.3800-1.3765-1.3700. Buy above 1.3950-1.3765 with stop loss closing below 1.3700 targeting 1.4000-1.4070 and 1.4150-1.4250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3950-1.3900
S2     1.3855
S3     1.3800-1.3765

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4000
R2     1.4070-1.4150
R3     1.4250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.811

Buy
20-DMA   1.3914 Sell
50-DMA   1.3899 Buy
100-DMA   1.3603 Buy
200-DMA   1.3326 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.421 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0098 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.05/USD and made an intraday high of JPY106.74/USD and settled the day down by 0.225% at JPY106.30/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.70-109.00 with risk above 109.00 targeting 106.00-105.50 and 104.90-104.20. Long positions above 105.50-104.90 with targets of 106.00-106.70-107.50 and 107.90-108.45 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.00
S2     105.50-104.90
S3     104.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.70
R2     107.50
R3     108.45-109.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.308 Buy
20-DMA   106.54 Sell
50-DMA   108.54 Sell
100-DMA   110.72 Sell
200-DMA   35.006 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   35.006 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.692 Sell

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