AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks began the new quarter on Monday with modest gains following a strong performance by global equities last week, while the dollar held steady ahead of key economic indicators. Many major financial centers were closed for the Good Friday Easter holiday. Markets in Australia, Hong Kong, Britain and Germany remained shut on Monday while the U.S. market will resume trading. MSCI’s world equity index ended up 1.2 percent last week. But it lost about 1.5 percent in the first quarter, pushed away from record highs as tensions over global trade escalated, turmoil in the White House deepened and market-leading technology firms wobbled on fears of regulation and other issues. The greenback had gained about 0.6 percent against a basket of six major currencies last week helped by a combination of factors including perceived progress on North Korea issues. U.S. data due this week include Monday’s Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index, Wednesday’s ISM non-manufacturing index and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. China’s manufacturing activity expanded at its weakest pace in four months in March as export demand faltered, prompting companies to shed staff more quickly as they looked to cut costs, a private survey showed on Monday. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) fell to 51.0 in March from February’s 51.6, countering economists’ expectations for a slight uptick to 51.7.
  • The dollar held steady against the yen on Monday, taking a breather after last week's rally and as it treads cautiously amid lingering concerns over a U.S.-China trade spat. The U.S. currency had risen against the yen last week, helped by signs China and the United States were working behind the scenes to avoid a full-blown trade war, and hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough over North Korea's nuclear program. The resulting uptick in risk appetite weighed on the safe-haven yen, a currency that tends to rise during times of market turmoil and vice versa. Given the simmering U.S.-China trade tensions, however, some analysts say the dollar's gains against the yen may be limited in the near term. China has slapped extra tariffs of up to 25 percent on 128 U.S. products including frozen pork, as well as on wine and certain fruits and nuts, in response to U.S. duties on imports of aluminum and steel, China's finance ministry said. The tariffs, to take effect on Monday, match a list of potential tariffs on up to $3 billion in U.S. goods published by China on March 23. Markets haven't shown much reaction to China's announcement so far, partly because Beijing had already warned of such measures, said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore. Asian equities showed resilience on Monday, starting the new quarter with mild gains after a strong performance by global equities last week. Analysts say another focus is the potential for foreign investment by Japanese institutional investors at the start of Japan's new financial year. Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation's Okagawa said Japanese investors will probably increase their allocation to overseas assets, at least to some extent, which will support the dollar. Oil prices rose on Monday, lifted by a drop in U.S. drilling activity as well as by expectations that the United States could re-introduce sanctions against Iran. Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia/Pacific at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore, said oil markets remained nervous about "whether or not the U.S. administration will scrap or maintain the fragile nuclear deal with Iran". Innes said prices were also supported by a weekly report that there was a drop in activity of drilling for new oil production in the United States. U.S. drillers cut seven oil rigs in the week to March 29, bringing the total count down to 797 , General Electric Co's (N:GE) Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report last Thursday. It was the first time in three weeks that the rig-count fell. Baker Hughes published its North American rig count report on Thursday, one day earlier than usual, due to the Good Friday holiday on March 30.
  • Oil prices have generally been supported by supply restraint led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, which started in 2017 in order to rein in oversupply and prop up prices. Rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China are likely to weigh on sentiment and could make for volatile trading in the coming days, traders and analysts said. China slapped extra tariffs of up to 25 percent on 128 U.S. products including frozen pork, as well as wine and certain fruits and nuts, in response to U.S. duties on imports of aluminum and steel, the country's finance ministry said on Sunday night.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
2nd April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,331-1,3401,331-1,340 1,350 1,357-1,363
Silver-XAG 16.50-17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 65.20 66.00 66.60-67.00
EURO/USD 1.2350-1.2400 1.2450 1.2510-1.2560
GBP/USD 1.4070-1.4120 1.4150 1.4250-1.4300
USD/JPY 106.70-107.50 108.00 108.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
2nd April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,320 1,311-1306 1,290
Silver-XAG 16.00-15.80 15.60 15.00
Crude Oil 64.50-64.00 63.10 62.40
EURO/USD 1.2300-1.2210 1.2150 1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3990-1.3910 1.3860 1.3820-1.3760
USD/JPY 106.00 105.50-104.90 104.40

Intra-Day Strategy (2nd April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1328.19/oz and low of US$1321.11/oz. Gold was up by 0.027% at US$1325.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 20DMA (1329) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1331-1363 keeping stop loss closing above 1363 and targeting 1320-1311 and 1306-1290. Buy above 1320-1290 with risk below 1310, targeting 1331-1340-1350 and 1357-1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,320
S2     1,311-1306
S3     1,290
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,331-1,3401,331-1,340
R2     1,350
R3     1,357-1,363

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.217

Buy
20-DMA   1326.72 Sell
50-DMA  

1331.38

Buy
100-DMA   1309.33 Buy
200-DMA   1293.02 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.530 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.925 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.35/oz and low of US$16.20/oz. Silver settled up by 0.430% at US$16.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.82), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-15.00 targeting 16.50-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.20-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00-15.80
S2     15.60
S3     15.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50-17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.735 Buy
20-DMA   16.46 Sell
50-DMA   16.64 Sell
100-DMA   16.66 Sell
200-DMA   16.76 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   30.202 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0534 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$65.21/bbl, intraday low of US$64.12/bbl and settled up by 0.309% to close at US$64.84/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 65.20-68.00 with stop loss at 68.00; targeting 64.60-64.20-63.10 and 62.70-62.00. Buy above 64.70-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00 and targeting 65.50-66.60 and 67.00-68.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.50-64.00
S2     63.10
S3     62.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     65.20
R2     66.00
R3     66.60-67.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.565 Sell
20-DMA   62.82 Sell
50-DMA   62.77 Sell
100-DMA   60.84 Buy
200-DMA   54.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.768 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.830 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.2289/EUR, high of US$1.2330/EUR and settled the day up by 0.162% to close at US$1.2319/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2350-1.2560 targeting 1.2300-1.2210 and 1.2160-1.2090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2600. Buy above 1.2300-1.2090 with risk below 1.2090 targeting 1.2350-1.2400-1.2450 and 1.2510-1.2570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2300-1.2210
S2     1.2150
S3     1.2090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2350-1.2400
R2     1.2450
R3     1.2510-1.2560

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.375 Buy
20-DMA   1.2339 Buy
50-DMA   1.2344 Buy
100-DMA   1.2120 Buy
200-DMA   1.1916 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.118 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.00062 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4009/GBP, high of US$1.4059/GBP and settled the day down by 0.007% to close at US$1.4016/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3431) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4070-1.4300 with targets at 1.4010-1.3910 and 1.3860-1.3820-1.3760. Buy above 1.3990-1.3760 with stop loss closing below 1.3760 targeting 1.4070-1.4120-1.4200 and 1.4250-1.4350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3990-1.3910
S2     1.3860
S3     1.3820-1.3760

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4070-1.4120
R2     1.4150
R3     1.4250-1.4300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.224

Buy
20-DMA   1.3993 Sell
50-DMA   1.3990 Buy
100-DMA   1.3710 Buy
200-DMA   1.3403 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   3.7992 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0048 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY106.11/USD and made an intraday high of JPY106.53/USD and settled the day down by 0.135% at JPY106.27/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.00
S2     105.50-104.90
S3     104.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.70-107.50
R2     108.00
R3     108.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.326 Buy
20-DMA   106.05 Sell
50-DMA   107.31 Sell
100-DMA   109.86 Sell
200-DMA   110.74 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   79.252 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.628 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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