AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares slipped on Tuesday amid escalating trade tensions and concerns about tech firms, although regional index declines were modest compared with those of their Wall Street counterparts as investors focused on global growth prospects. The U.S. dollar steadied against the safe haven yen after declining for three straight days and gold, which is often seen as a store of value during times of financial or political uncertainty, inched lower. Investors were also on the backfoot as China imposed extra tariffs on 128 U.S. products, deepening a dispute between the world's two biggest economies and stoking concerns about the impact on global growth.
  • The New York Federal Reserve will launch a benchmark U.S. rate on Tuesday to potentially replace Libor, and market participants hope it will prove more reliable after a long and complex switchover. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York building is seen in the Manhattan borough of New York, U.S., December 16, 2017. The New York Fed will begin publishing the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the first step in a multi-year plan to transition more derivatives away from the London interbank offered rate (Libor), which regulators say poses systemic risks if it ceases publication. Increased short-term Treasury issuance and declining demand for credit due to tax reforms are deemed the most likely factors. A decline in interbank lending has reduced the robustness of the rate, which is sometimes estimated rather than based on actual transactions. Investors will also need to adjust to the day to day volatility of the repurchase market, where rates typically increase ahead of monthly and quarterly closings.
  • The dollar traded slightly lower on Tuesday morning in Asia amid the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Risk aversion resulted from fears of a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies sent the safe-haven yen higher. The Non-Farm Payrolls results are also investors’ focus this week. In response to U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminium, China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, with extra tariffs of up to 25% on 128 U.S. products including frozen pork, wine and certain fruits and nuts. A U.S. manufacturing activity report for March showed new orders slowed amid trade disputes between the two countries. In China, The yen saw wide uptick as the greenback dipped while equities and other risk assets tumbled on the post-holiday market action amid fading risk appetite. The pair dropped below the 106 range overnight to Tuesday’s low at 105.67 and traded around the the range on Tuesday morning.
  • Gold prices slipped on Tuesday, giving up its earlier gains despite a weaker dollar amid the escalating trade dispute between China and the U.S. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – a fall in the dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of foreign currency and thus increases demand for the precious metal. Gold prices pushed higher earlier in the day as risk aversion accelerated following a selloff in U.S. technology shares and escalated concerns of a full blown trade wars after China slapped new tariffs on U.S. goods on Sunday. Investors seek out gold as a store of value during times of political or economic uncertainty.
  • Oil prices rose on Tuesday morning in Asia amid a potential slowdown in U.S. production, but were capped by rising Russian output and expectations of a reduction in Saudi Arabian crude prices. Top exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to cut prices for all crude grades it sells to Asia in May. Also putting pressure on oil markets is the rising supply. Top producer Russia pumped 10.97 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in March, up from 10.95 million bpd in February, an 11 month high. One of the key price drivers going forward will be crude output from the U.S., which has increased by almost a quarter since mid-2016 to 10.43 million bpd, overtaking Saudi Arabia’s and inching close to Russia’s. By year-end the U.S. is expected to become the world’s top producer. But a dip in drilling activity for new production could imply that the relentless rise in U.S. production could be tapering off toward the middle of the year. Meanwhile, there is still strong compliance on production curbs from members of the OPEC and its allies, led by Russia, supporting oil prices In an effort to control the global oil oversupply, OPEC and a group of non-OPEC producers have been cutting output since January 2017. The pact is set to run through to the end of 2018, but recently OPEC de-facto leader Saudi Arabia has pushed for the production curbs to be extended into 2019.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,340 1,350 1,357-1,363
Silver-XAG 16.50-17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 63.30-64.00 64.50 65.20-66.00
EURO/USD 1.2300 1.2350-1.2400 1.2450
GBP/USD 1.4070-1.4120 1.4150 1.4250-1.4300
USD/JPY 106.70-107.50 108.00 108.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,331 1,320 1,311-1306
Silver-XAG 16.00-15.80 15.60 15.00
Crude Oil 62.70-62.00 60.90 60.10
EURO/USD 1.2210-1.2150 1.2090 1.2002
GBP/USD 1.3990-1.3910 1.3860 1.3820-1.3760
USD/JPY 106.00 105.50-104.90 104.40

Intra-Day Strategy (4th April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$132.40/oz and low of US$1328.78/oz. Gold was down by 0.596% at US$1332.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 20DMA (1329) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1340-1363 keeping stop loss closing above 1363 and targeting 1331-1320-1311 and 1306-1290. Buy above 1331-1290 with risk below 1310, targeting 1340-1350 and 1357-1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,331
S2     1,320
S3     1,311-1306
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,340
R2     1,350
R3     1,357-1,363

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.025

Buy
20-DMA   1328.25 Sell
50-DMA  

1331.40

Buy
100-DMA   1310.99 Buy
200-DMA   1294.29 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   45.476 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   2.409 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$16.60/oz and low of US$16.34/oz. Silver settled down by 1.026% at US$16.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.82), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-15.00 targeting 16.50-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.20-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00-15.80
S2     15.60
S3     15.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50-17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.847 Buy
20-DMA   16.45 Sell
50-DMA   16.61 Sell
100-DMA   16.64 Sell
200-DMA   16.75 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   47.092 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0401 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$63.77/bbl, intraday low of US$62.84/bbl and settled down by 1.034% to close at US$62.49/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 63.30-66.00 with stop loss at 66.00; targeting 62.70-62.00 and 60.90-60.10. Buy above 62.70-60.10 with risk daily closing below 60.10 and targeting 63.10-64.00-64.50 and 65.50-66.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.70-62.00
S2     60.90
S3     60.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     63.30-64.00
R2     64.50
R3     65.20-66.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.367 Sell
20-DMA   63.00 Sell
50-DMA   62.73 Sell
100-DMA   61.02 Buy
200-DMA   55.28 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.202 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.514 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.2253/EUR, high of US$1.2335/EUR and settled the day down by 0.252% to close at US$1.2269/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2350-1.2560 targeting 1.2300-1.2210 and 1.2160-1.2090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2600. Buy above 1.2300-1.2090 with risk below 1.2090 targeting 1.2350-1.2400-1.2450 and 1.2510-1.2570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2210-1.2150
S2     1.2090
S3     1.2002

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2300
R2     1.2350-1.2400
R3     1.2450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.5991 Buy
20-DMA   1.2324 Buy
50-DMA   1.2341 Buy
100-DMA   1.2138 Buy
200-DMA   1.1932 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.00058 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4020/GBP, high of US$1.4088/GBP and settled the day up by 0.214% to close at US$1.4053/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3431) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4070-1.4300 with targets at 1.4010-1.3910 and 1.3860-1.3820-1.3760. Buy above 1.3990-1.3760 with stop loss closing below 1.3760 targeting 1.4070-1.4120-1.4200 and 1.4250-1.4350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3990-1.3910
S2     1.3860
S3     1.3820-1.3760

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4070-1.4120
R2     1.4150
R3     1.4250-1.4300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.224

Buy
20-DMA   1.3993 Sell
50-DMA   1.3990 Buy
100-DMA   1.3710 Buy
200-DMA   1.3403 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   3.7992 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0048 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY105.65/USD and made an intraday high of JPY106.44/USD and settled the day down by 0.273% at JPY105.87/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.00
S2     105.50-104.90
S3     104.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.70-107.50
R2     108.00
R3     108.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.627 Buy
20-DMA   106.06 Sell
50-DMA   107.13 Sell
100-DMA   09.710 Sell
200-DMA   110.69 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   50.790 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.330 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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