AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares bounced from two-month lows on Thursday as world equities recovered from a selloff triggered by escalating Sino-U.S. trade tensions, with investors hoping a full-blown trade war between the world’s two biggest economies can be averted. Sentiment was lifted as the United States expressed willingness to negotiate a resolution to the trade fight after the proposed U.S. tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods prompted a quick response from Beijing that it would retaliate by targeting key American imports. Many investors viewed U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs plan as part of his negotiation strategy, rather than his final policy. Indeed, Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, when asked whether the latest U.S. tariffs plan may never go into effect and may be a negotiating tactic, told reporters: “Yes, it’s possible. It’s part of the process.” He called the announcements by the two countries mere opening proposals. The U.S. trade actions will not be carried out immediately, giving the two countries room for maneuver and providing investors with hope of a compromise. The proposed 25 percent U.S. tariffs on some 1,300 industrial technology, transport and medical products from China now see a public comment and consultation period that is expected to last around two months. Many suspect Washington will likely back down on some fronts after Beijing threatened tariffs on U.S. soybeans, the top U.S. agricultural export to China. It is considered one of the most powerful weapons in Beijing’s trade arsenal given the impact on Iowa and other farming states that backed Trump in the election. Optimists also argued that the global economy is currently running so strong that it could cope with the impact of the proposed tariffs, which cover a fraction of the world’s trade. U.S. economic data published on Wednesday underscored the prevailing bullish view on the economy. U.S. private payrolls increased solidly in March as hiring rose across the board, boding well for Friday’s jobs data. Thanks to the correction in share prices worldwide since late January, their valuations have come down from record levels early this year, attracting bargain hunters.
  • The dollar pushed higher against a basket of the other major currencies on Thursday amid hopes that the U.S. and China will reach a compromise to overcome rising trade tensions. The safe haven yen, which tends to be sought out by investors during times of political or economic uncertainty had rallied Wednesday after China announced a fresh wave of tariffs on U.S. imports, in retaliation to a Trump administration plan to impose tariffs on Chinese products. But trade tensions eased after President Donald Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow said proposed tariffs on China may not actually take effect and added that there is not a trade war between the U.S. and China. Market sentiment was also helped by hopes that the U.S. could reach a deal with Canada and Mexico over the North American Free Trade Agreement. Investors were turning their attention to the latest U.S. employment report and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, which could help determine the direction of the dollar. Signs of increasing wage growth could underline the case for the Fed to raise interest rates at a faster pace. Expectations of rising rates tend to boost the dollar by making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by the U.S. government data showing a surprise drawdown in crude stockpiles and an easing of tensions over a trade row between the United States and China. Oil also got support from firm global equities, as the United States expressed willingness to negotiate a resolution on trade after proposed U.S. tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods prompted a quick response from Beijing that it would retaliate by targeting key American imports. Oil prices have recently closely tracked equities. Before the rebound late on Wednesday, after the release of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data, WTI and Brent had hit two-week lows after China proposed a broad range of tariffs on U.S. exports, feeding fears of a trade war. Oil has also received support after a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday that OPEC oil output fell in March to an 11-month low due to declining Angolan exports, Libyan outages and a further slide in Venezuelan output. Shanghai crude futures trading was closed on Thursday due to a public holiday in China. Trading will resume on Monday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU ,331-1,340 1,350 1,357-1,363
Silver-XAG 16.50-17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 64.00 64.50 65.20-66.00
EURO/USD 1.2300 1.2350-1.2400 1.2450
GBP/USD 1.4070-1.4120 1.4150 1.4250-1.4300
USD/JPY 107.50-108.00 108.70 109.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,311-1306 1,311-1306 ,331-1,340
Silver-XAG 16.00-15.80 15.60 15.00
Crude Oil 63.30 62.70-62.00 60.90
EURO/USD 1.2210-1.2150 1.2090 1.2002
GBP/USD 1.3990-1.3910 1.3860 1.3820-1.3760
USD/JPY 106.70 106.00 105.50-104.90

Intra-Day Strategy (5th April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$132.40/oz and low of US$1328.78/oz. Gold was down by 0.596% at US$1332.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 20DMA (1329) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1331-1363 keeping stop loss closing above 1363 and targeting 1320-1311 and 1306-1290. Buy above 1320-1290 with risk below 1310, targeting 1331-1340-1350 and 1357-1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,311-1306
S2     1,311-1306
S3     ,331-1,340
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     ,331-1,340
R2     1,350
R3     1,357-1,363

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.691

Buy
20-DMA   1328.29 Sell
50-DMA  

1330.76

Buy
100-DMA   1311.47 Buy
200-DMA   1294.70 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.805 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   2.409 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$16.51/oz and low of US$16.23/oz. Silver settled down by 0.549% at US$16.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.82), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-15.00 targeting 16.50-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00-15.80
S2     15.60
S3     15.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50-17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.902 Buy
20-DMA   16.43 Sell
50-DMA   16.58 Sell
100-DMA   16.63 Sell
200-DMA   16.75 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.447 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0596 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$63.58/bbl, intraday low of US$62.04/bbl and settled down by 0.0629% to close at US$63.49/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 64.00-66.00 with stop loss at 66.00; targeting 63.30-62.00 and 60.90-60.10. Buy above 63.30-60.10 with risk daily closing below 60.10 and targeting 64.00-64.50 and 65.50-66.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.30
S2     62.70-62.00
S3     60.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.00
R2     64.50
R3     65.20-66.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.792 Sell
20-DMA   63.13 Sell
50-DMA   62.69 Sell
100-DMA   61.09 Buy
200-DMA   55.39 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   35.265 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.479 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.2256/EUR, high of US$1.2314/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0652% to close at US$1.2277/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2350-1.2560 targeting 1.2300-1.2210 and 1.2160-1.2090 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2600. Buy above 1.2300-1.2090 with risk below 1.2090 targeting 1.2350-1.2400-1.2450 and 1.2510-1.2570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2210-1.2150
S2     1.2090
S3     1.2002

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2300
R2     1.2350-1.2400
R3     1.2450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.5991 Buy
20-DMA   1.2324 Buy
50-DMA   1.2341 Buy
100-DMA   1.2138 Buy
200-DMA   1.1932 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.00058 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4014/GBP, high of US$1.4095/GBP and settled the day up by 0.163% to close at US$1.4076/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3431) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4070-1.4300 with targets at 1.4010-1.3910 and 1.3860-1.3820-1.3760. Buy above 1.3990-1.3760 with stop loss closing below 1.3760 targeting 1.4070-1.4120-1.4200 and 1.4250-1.4350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3990-1.3910
S2     1.3860
S3     1.3820-1.3760

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4070-1.4120
R2     1.4150
R3     1.4250-1.4300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.425

Buy
20-DMA   1.4033 Sell
50-DMA   1.3988 Buy
100-DMA   1.3746 Buy
200-DMA   1.3429 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.1448 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0037 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY105.98/USD and made an intraday high of JPY106.84/USD and settled the day up by 0.1500% at JPY106.78/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.70
S2     106.00
S3     105.50-104.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.00
R2     108.70
R3     109.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.627 Buy
20-DMA   106.06 Sell
50-DMA   107.13 Sell
100-DMA   109.70 Sell
200-DMA   110.69 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   50.790 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.330 Sell

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