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Daily Market Lookup

  • Stock markets slipped on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed tariffs on more Chinese products, aggravating trade tensions, while the dollar steadied before the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Trump said late on Thursday that he had instructed U.S. trade officials to consider $100 billion in additional tariffs on China, fuelling the trade dispute between the world's two economic superpowers. China's Ministry of Commerce said it would take new comprehensive measures to safeguard the country's interests if the United States stuck to its protectionist behavior. Asian stocks declined early on Friday in a knee-jerk reaction to Trump's latest tariff proposal but regained a measure of calm following Wall Street's strong performance overnight. Beyond the trade turmoil, financial markets are focused on Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which could determine the pace of future Federal Reserve interest rate rises and the dollar's direction. The U.S. March employment report is expected to show non-farm payroll growth of 193,000 jobs versus 313,000 the prior month, according to the latest Thomson Reuters poll of economists. Average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 0.2 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in February. The gain would lift the annual increase in average hourly earnings to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent in February. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall 1/10th of a percentage point to 4.0 percent, which would be the lowest level since December 2000 and the first drop in the jobless rate in six months. Despite signs of rapidly diminishing labor market slack, wage growth likely remained moderate in March. Average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 0.2 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in February. The gain would lift the annual increase in average hourly earnings to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent in February. Economists say annual wage growth of at least 3 percent is needed to lift inflation toward the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. There is hope that wage growth will accelerate in the second half of the year and allow the Fed to continue raising interest rates. The Fed increased borrowing costs last month and forecast two more interest rate hikes this year. Economists did not see an impact on hiring in the near-term from a recent stock market selloff, which has caused a tightening in financial conditions.
  • The dollar faltered on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened $100 billion in additional tariffs on China, in a fresh escalation of trade tensions between the world's largest economies. Increasingly combative statements from Washington and Beijing have stirred fears of a full-blown trade war that could hurt global economic growth, though investors are holding out hope that negotiations will result in a far less damaging compromise. Trump said in a statement on Thursday that further tariffs were being considered "in light of China's unfair retaliation" against earlier U.S. trade actions that have roiled global markets. That gave a brief lift to the yen, a safe haven currency that attracts demand in times of economic uncertainty. Within hours, China responded, saying it would take new comprehensive measures to safeguard the country's interests if the United States sticks to its protectionist behavior. The dollar's resilience may be a sign that short-term market positioning is tilted toward being short the dollar and long the yen, said Stephen Innes, head of trading in Asia-Pacific for Oanda in Singapore. Besides the China-U.S. trade issue, currency traders will also be looking for cues from U.S. jobs data and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell later on Friday. Against this backdrop, the dollar will probably head higher if U.S. average hourly earnings come in strong, although the greenback's gains could be blocked by resistance levels on technical charts, Ino added.
  • Oil prices fell on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of new tariffs on China reignited fears of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. President Trump said on Thursday he had ordered U.S. trade officials to consider tariffs on $100 billion more of imports from China, escalating tensions with Beijing. While oil market watchers were wary of the brewing trade war between the United States and China, they did not expect to see steep falls amid signs of tightening supplies. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 4.6 million-barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 246,000 barrels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said on Thursday it would raise its official selling price for May crude for Asian customers. Trump threatens new $100 billion round of China tariffs The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers including Russia are committed to cutting output by around 1.8 million barrels per day through the end of 2018 in a bid to clear a global overhang and support prices. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the oil cartel, has said production cuts could be extended in one form or another. OPEC and its allies should keep the cuts to ensure healthy price levels as a way to boost investment in the industry and avoid a supply and price shock in the long run, Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammed al-Sada told Reuters.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
6th April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,331-1,340 1,350 1,357-1,363
Silver-XAG 16.50-17.0 0 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 63.30-64.00 64.50 65.20-66.00
EURO/USD 1.2300 1.2350-1.2400 1.2450
GBP/USD 1.4070-1.4120 1.4150 1.4250-1.4300
USD/JPY 107.50-108.00 108.70 109.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
6th April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,320 1,311-1306 1,294
Silver-XAG 16.00-15.80 15.60 15.00
Crude Oil 62.70-62.00 60.90 60.00
EURO/USD 1.2210-1.2150 1.2090 1.2002
GBP/USD 1.3990-1.3910 1.3860 1.3820-1.3760
USD/JPY 106.70 106.00 105.50-104.90

Intra-Day Strategy (6th April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1326.43/oz and low of US$1322.66/oz. Gold was down by 0.498% at US$1326.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 20DMA (1329) and breakage above will call for 1280-1290. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1331-1363 keeping stop loss closing above 1363 and targeting 1320-1311 and 1306-1290. Buy above 1320-1290 with risk below 1310, targeting 1331-1340-1350 and 1357-1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,320
S2     1,311-1306
S3     1,294
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,331-1,340
R2     1,350
R3     1,357-1,363

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.7375

Buy
20-DMA   1328.29 Sell
50-DMA  

1330.76

Buy
100-DMA   1311.47 Buy
200-DMA   1294.70 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.805 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   2.409 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$16.41/oz and low of US$16.17/oz. Silver settled up by 0.491% at US$16.37/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.82), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-15.00 targeting 16.50-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00-15.80
S2     15.60
S3     15.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50-17.0 0
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.902 Buy
20-DMA   16.43 Sell
50-DMA   16.58 Sell
100-DMA   16.63 Sell
200-DMA   16.75 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.447 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0596 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$64.09/bbl, intraday low of US$63.05/bbl and settled down by 0.0628% to close at US$63.68/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 63.50-66.00 with stop loss at 66.00; targeting 63.30-62.00 and 60.90-60.10. Buy above 63.00-60.10 with risk daily closing below 60.00 and targeting 63.50-64.00-64.50 and 65.50-66.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.70-62.00
S2     60.90
S3     60.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     63.30-64.00
R2     64.50
R3     65.20-66.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.172 Sell
20-DMA   63.37 Sell
50-DMA   62.54 Sell
100-DMA   60.65 Buy
200-DMA   57.38 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   40.740 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.401 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.2217/EUR, high of US$1.2289/EUR and settled the day down by 0.309% to close at US$1.2217/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2300-1.2450 targeting 1.2210-1.2160 and 1.2090-1.2000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2450. Buy above 1.2300-1.2000 with risk below 1.2000 targeting 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2450-1.2510.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2210-1.2150
S2     1.2090
S3     1.2002

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2300
R2     1.2350-1.2400
R3     1.2450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.981 Buy
20-DMA   1.2304 Buy
50-DMA   1.2279 Buy
100-DMA   1.2161 Buy
200-DMA   1.1922 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.031 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0015 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3965/GBP, high of US$1.4096/GBP and settled the day down by 0.532% to close at US$1.4001/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3431) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4070-1.4300 with targets at 1.4010-1.3910 and 1.3860-1.3820-1.3760. Buy above 1.3990-1.3760 with stop loss closing below 1.3760 targeting 1.4070-1.4120-1.4200 and 1.4250-1.4350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3990-1.3910
S2     1.3860
S3     1.3820-1.3760

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4070-1.4120
R2     1.4150
R3     1.4250-1.4300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.925

Buy
20-DMA   1.4025 Sell
50-DMA   1.3943 Buy
100-DMA   1.3776 Buy
200-DMA   1.3527 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.316 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0026 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY106.70/USD and made an intraday high of JPY106.70/USD and settled the day up by 0.564% at JPY107.37/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.70
S2     106.00
S3     105.50-104.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.00
R2     108.70
R3     109.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.627 Buy
20-DMA   106.06 Sell
50-DMA   107.13 Sell
100-DMA   109.70 Sell
200-DMA   110.69 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   50.790 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.330 Sell

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