Daily Market Lookup

• Asian shares crept higher on Monday as a rally in U.S. stock futures soothed sentiment even as U.S. President Donald Trump kept up his twitter war with China just a couple of days before President Xi Jinping gives a keynote speech. Helping was news North Korea had told the United States for the first time that it was prepared to discuss denuclearization when their leaders meet. There was more confusion than reaction to reports, which the Pentagon quickly denied, that U.S. forces had struck at sites in Syria. Trump said on Sunday there would be a “big price to pay” after medical aid groups reported dozens of people were killed by poison gas in a besieged rebel-held town. Caution had been the watchword after Trump claimed on Sunday that China would take down its trade barriers because it was “the right thing to do.” Trump late Thursday threatened to slap $100 billion more in tariffs on Chinese imports, while Beijing said it was fully prepared to respond with a “fierce counter strike”. Analysts warned the drama would be a long-running one given the lengthy public discussion period on U.S. tariff proposals meant the earliest they might be imposed was somewhere around late July or early August. The tech sector faces its own risks on Tuesday and Wednesday when Facebook Inc Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg is grilled by Congress over a political consultancy’s use of customer data. Some hope the looming earnings season will be strong enough to provide fundamental support for stocks, with analysts tipping the fastest quarterly profit growth in seven years. Japanese investors sold a record 3.924 trillion yen ($36.68 bn) of U.S. dollar bonds in February, as rising costs of currency-hedging undercut their yield attraction.
• The dollar steadied on Monday, having retreated late last week due to concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions and following data that showed the U.S. economy created the fewest jobs in six months in March. The dollar index had set a one-month high of 90.597 ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report data on Friday but later lost some steam, weighed down by concerns about the U.S.-China trade dispute and the disappointing U.S. jobs data. China warned on Friday it was fully prepared to respond with a "fierce counter strike" of fresh trade measures if the United States follows through on President Donald Trump's threat to slap tariffs on an additional $100 billion of Chinese goods. Increasingly combative statements from Washington and Beijing have stirred fears of a full-blown trade war that could hurt global economic growth, though investors are holding out hope that negotiations will result in a far less damaging compromise. Markets showed limited reaction after Syrian state TV said there were casualties in what it reported was a suspected U.S. missile attack on a major air base in central Syria. The United States, however, denied it had launched any air strikes against the country. Although geopolitical risks are a concern, they are being offset by solid global economic growth, said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore. U.S. equities will meet a major test in coming weeks as first-quarter earnings pour in, with expectations that tax cuts will help Corporate America show its biggest quarterly profit growth in seven years. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed an increase of just 103,000 jobs in March, the smallest gain since last.
• Gold prices slipped on Monday as the dollar strengthened on signs of easing tensions between the United States and North Korea, although the U.S.-China trade spat continued to be a concern. The U.S. confirmed that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is willing to talk to President Trump about denuclearisation, which implied easing geopolitical tensions in East Asia that improved investors’ risk appetite. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – a gain in the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus decreases demand for the precious metal. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation data will be out later this week. The U.S. producer price index, forecast at 0.1%, will be due Tuesday, while the core consumer price index, expected to be 0.2%, will come on Wednesday. Oil markets stabilized on Monday after slumping around 2 percent last Friday on concerns over an intensifying trade dispute between the United States and China, as well as increased U.S. drilling activity. Markets on Monday were also eyeing the situation in Syria after reports - denied by the Pentagon - that U.S. forces had struck a major air base there. Oil prices fell about 2 percent on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on China, reigniting fears of a trade war between the world's two largest economies that could hurt global growth. Oil prices have generally been supported by healthy demand as well as by supply restraint led by the OPEC, which started in 2017 in order to rein in oversupply and prop up prices. In physical oil markets, OPEC's number two producer Iraq said on Monday that it is keeping prices for its crude supplies in May steady. In the United States, drillers added 11 rigs looking for new production in the week to April 6, bringing the total count to 808, the highest level since March 2015, General Electric's (N:GE) Baker Hughes energy services firm said on Friday. As a result, U.S. exports have soared in recent months, "more than offsetting the Venezuelan supply disruption" as a result of the economic crisis in the South American OPEC-member, Innes said.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1335.33/oz and low of US$1319.89/oz. Gold was down by 0.517% at US$1333.22/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1340-1363 keeping stop loss closing above 1363 and targeting 1331-1320-1311 and 1306-1290. Buy above 1331-1300 with risk below 1300, targeting 1340-1350 and 1357-1362-1370.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.48/oz and low of US$16.25/oz. Silver settled up by 0.036% at US$16.37/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-15.00 targeting 16.50-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$63.75/bbl, intraday low of US$61.81/bbl and settled down by 2.74% to close at US$61.94/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 62.70-65.20 with stop loss at 65.20; targeting 62.00-60.90 and 60.10-58.95. Buy above 62.00-58.95 with risk daily closing below 58.95 and targeting 62.70-63.50-64.00 and 64.50-65.20.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.2215/EUR, high of US$1.2290/EUR and settled the day up by 0.343% to close at US$1.2281/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2300-1.2450 targeting 1.2210-1.2160 and 1.2090-1.2000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2450. Buy above 1.2300-1.2000 with risk below 1.2000 targeting 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2450-1.2510.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4104/GBP, high of US$1.3982/GBP and settled the day up by 0.614% to close at US$1.4087/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4070-1.4300 with targets at 1.4010-1.3910 and 1.3860-1.3820-1.3760. Buy above 1.4070-1.3760 with stop loss closing below 1.3760 targeting 1.4120-1.4200 and 1.4250-1.4350.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY106.77/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.45/USD and settled the day down by 0.419% at JPY106.92/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.