AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar bounced against the yen on Tuesday, with broader risk appetite improving after a speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping promising to cut import tariffs eased concerns about a trade conflict between the world's two largest economies. Speaking at a Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan province, Xi pledged to open the country's economy further and lower import tariffs on products including cars. Trade conflict worries ebbed after Xi was seen to have refrained from upping the ante between Washington and Beijing in his first public reaction to the tariff standoff on Tuesday. Xi also said China's reform and opening up will definitely succeed and that a Cold War mentality, zero-sum thinking, and isolationism would hit walls. The greenback had fallen in the two previous sessions as rhetoric from Chinese and U.S. policymakers had kept markets wary. For now, equity markets in Asia have rallied following Xi's speech, reducing demand for the yen, which is often sought in times of market turmoil and political tensions. Losses in the Japanese currency were limited from tensions stemming from other perceived risks, notably Syria. Geopolitical risks are weighing on the dollar against the yen amid concerns that U.S.-Russia relations could worsen over the Syria issue, said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities. U.S. President Trump on Monday promised quick, forceful action in response to a suspected chemical weapons attack in Syria, appearing to suggest a potential military response. Trump has castigated Russia for backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The common currency was lifted after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Monday that the slide in stock markets this year has not materially impacted euro zone financial conditions, suggesting policymakers remain calm about the recent market volatility. Gold prices slipped on Tuesday as the dollar recovered from an overnight plunged amid reports of FBI raiding the office of U.S. president Trump’s lawyer. More directional drivers for the greenback include March’s producer price index that is due later in the day. Inflation growth at the wholesale level as measured by the producer price index is expected to have cooled to 0.1% in March from 0.2% in the prior month.
  • Oil markets rose for a second day on Tuesday, with Brent rising above $69 per barrel on hopes a trade dispute between the United States and China, the world's two biggest crude consumers, may be resolved without greater damage to the global economy. Yet prices remain within recent ranges as oil markets still face an abundance of supply that puts pressure on producers to keep their prices competitive in order not to lose market share. The gains followed a more than 2 percent rally on Monday during European and American trade hours, but that was a rebound from a 2 percent decline on Friday. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday promised to open the country's economy further and lower import tariffs, in a speech that struck a conciliatory tone on the rising trade tensions between China and the United States. The crude oil price rises had come "amid easing apprehensions of a trade war between the United States and China," said Sukrit Vijayakar, director of energy consultancy Trifecta. Concerns of a prolonged trade dispute between the world's two biggest economies and uncertainty over the supply and demand balance of global oil markets have resulted in volatile recent trading. Beyond the trade dispute, oil markets are also concerned about the potential of renewed U.S. sanctions against some significant oil producers Traders said weekly U.S. fuel inventory data would provide further market guidance. The American Petroleum Institute will publish storage data later on Tuesday while official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday. Oil markets have been supported by healthy demand and supply cuts led by the OPEC. However, soaring U.S. crude production, which has jumped by a quarter since mid-2016 to 10.46 million barrels per day (bpd), is threatening to undermine OPEC's efforts to tighten the market and prop up prices. The United States late last year overtook Saudi Arabia as the world's second-biggest crude producer. Only Russia pumps more crude, at almost 11 million bpd.
  • In a sign that oil supplies remain ample, China's Sinopec and several other Asian refiners plan to cut Saudi crude imports in May, instead buying from alternative sources, after Saudi Aramco set higher-than-expected official prices, a company official said on Monday. JPMorgan said it expects Brent and WTI prices to average $69.50 and $65.20 per barrel in 2018, respectively, while it forecasts $64 per barrel for Brent and $58.50 per barrel for WTI in 2019.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,340 1,350 1,357-1,363
Silver-XAG 16.50-17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 64.50-65.20 66.00 66.50
EURO/USD 1.2350-1.2400 1.2450 1.2510
GBP/USD 1.4150 1.4250-1.4300 1.4350
USD/JPY 107.50-108.00 108.70 109.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,331 1,320 1,311-1306
Silver-XAG 16.00-15.80 15.60 15.00
Crude Oil 64.00-63.30 62.70 62.00-60.90
EURO/USD 1.2300-1.2250 1.2210 1.2150-1.2090
GBP/USD 1.4120 1.4070-1.3990 1.3910
USD/JPY 106.70 106.00 105.50-104.90

Intra-Day Strategy (10th April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1337.88/oz and low of US$1326.80/oz. Gold was up by 0.167% at US$1336.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1340-1363 keeping stop loss closing above 1363 and targeting 1331-1320-1311 and 1306-1290. Buy above 1331-1300 with risk below 1300, targeting 1340-1350 and 1357-1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,331
S2     1,320
S3     1,311-1306
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,340
R2     1,350
R3     1,357-1,363

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.294

Buy
20-DMA   1330.81 Sell
50-DMA  

1326.62

Buy
100-DMA   1316.50 Buy
200-DMA   1299.63 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   37.013 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.630 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$16.54/oz and low of US$16.30/oz. Silver settled up by 0.488% at US$16.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-15.00 targeting 16.50-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00-15.80
S2     15.60
S3     15.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50-17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.320 Buy
20-DMA   16.44 Sell
50-DMA   16.53 Sell
100-DMA   16.63 Sell
200-DMA   16.77 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   59.380 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0463 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$63.59/bbl, intraday low of US$61.81/bbl and settled down by 2.74% to close at US$63.22/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 64.50-66.50 with stop loss at 66.50; targeting 64.00-63.30 and 62.70-62.00-60.90. Buy above 64.00-60.90 with risk daily closing below 60.90 and targeting 64.50-65.20 and 66.00-66.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.00-63.30
S2     62.70
S3     62.00-60.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.50-65.20
R2     66.00
R3     66.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.394 Sell
20-DMA   63.35 Sell
50-DMA   62.59 Sell
100-DMA   60.74 Buy
200-DMA   57.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.900 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.287 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.2259/EUR, high of US$1.2330/EUR and settled the day up by 0.284% to close at US$1.2319/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2350-1.2510 targeting 1.2210-1.2160 and 1.2090-1.2000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2450. Buy above 1.2300-1.2000 with risk below 1.2000 targeting 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2450-1.2510.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2300-1.2250
S2     1.2210
S3     1.2150-1.2090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2350-1.2400
R2     1.2450
R3     1.2510

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.326 Buy
20-DMA   1.2309 Sell
50-DMA   1.2284 Sell
100-DMA   1.2168 Buy
200-DMA   1.1930 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   71.142 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0083 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4072/GBP, high of US$1.4163/GBP and settled the day up by 0.333% to close at US$1.4128/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4150-1.4350 with targets at 1.4120-1.4070-1.4010 and 1.3910-1.3860. Buy above 1.4120-1.3900 with stop loss closing below 1.3910 targeting 1.4150-1.4250 and 1.4350-1.4400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.4120
S2     1.4070-1.3990
S3     1.3910

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4150
R2     1.4250-1.4300
R3     1.4350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.982

Buy
20-DMA   1.4052 Buy
50-DMA   1.3961 Buy
100-DMA   1.3792 Buy
200-DMA   1.3540 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.0201 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0040 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY106.60/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.19/USD and settled the day down by 0.177% at JPY106.74/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.70
S2     106.00
S3     105.50-104.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.00
R2     108.70
R3     109.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.841 Buy
20-DMA   106.53 Sell
50-DMA   107.26 Sell
100-DMA   108.60 Sell
200-DMA   110.69 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   67.710 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.330 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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