AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Stocks came under pressure on Thursday as the threat of imminent U.S. military action in Syria rattled investors and sent oil prices to their highest levels since late 2014 on concerns about potential disruptions to supply and distribution. Trump declared that missiles "will be coming" in Syria, taunting Russia for supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after a suspected chemical attack on rebels. Damascus and Moscow have denied any responsibility. His comments raised the prospect of direct conflict over Syria for the first time between the two world powers backing opposing sides in the seven-year-old civil war, which has also escalated a rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The tension intensified in another front as Saudi Arabia said its air defense forces intercepted three ballistic missiles fired at Riyadh and other cities by Yemen's Houthis. Trump has also threatened to withdraw from a nuclear deal struck in 2015 with Tehran. Nobuhiko Kuramochi, chief strategist at Mizuho Securities, said Trump's perceived brinkmanship on many issues from Syria to tariffs on imports from major trading partners ahead of mid-term elections make it hard for markets to focus on economic fundamentals. The Russian rouble steadied on Wednesday after two days of heavy selling due to worries about the Syrian conflict and new punitive sanctions by the United States. Worries on the Middle East overwhelmed budding optimism that Washington and Beijing will work out a compromise to avert a trade war following Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech on Tuesday. Given the uncertainties on diplomacy and trade, economic news is currently of secondary importance to investors. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting on March 20-21 released on Wednesday showed all of its policymakers felt that the U.S. economy would firm further and that inflation would rise in the coming months. U.S. consumer inflation figures matched economists' forecasts. Prices fell for the first time in 10 months from the previous month in March, but the core CPI rose 2.1%, the largest advance since February 2017, as the drag from last year's plunge in prices for cellphone service plans dropped out of the calculation.
  • The dollar edged up against the yen on Thursday, but its gains were thin as concerns over possible Western military action against Syria lent support to the safe-haven Japanese currency. The yen often draws demand in times of market turmoil and political tension. The dollar has since lost momentum against the yen, however, as focus has shifted to the possibility of wider military conflict in the Middle East. Tensions increased after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Russia on Wednesday of imminent military action in Syria over a suspected poison gas attack, declaring on Twitter that missiles "will be coming" and lambasting Moscow for standing by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. While concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions have eased in the wake of Xi's comments, they haven't gone away. China's commerce ministry said on Thursday trade negotiations with the United States would be impossible as Washington's attempts at dialogue were not sincere, and vowed to retaliate should U.S. President Donald Trump escalate current tensions The euro has gained 0.7 percent so far this week, as comments from European Central Bank officials reinforced views that the central bank is on track to normalize monetary policy. Commodity-linked currencies were also supported With attention on Syria, the U.S. dollar did not garner much support from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes released on Wednesday showing all policymakers felt the U.S. economy would gain more momentum and inflation would accelerate in the coming months.
  • Escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East are proving to be a boon for oil prices, with speculation over supply disruptions in the energy-rich region countering concerns over rising U.S. crude stockpiles. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, intercepted a ballistic missile fired by pro-Iranian Yemeni rebels over the kingdom’s capital just hours after President Donald Trump warned America is preparing to strike Syria. Meanwhile, investors largely shrugged off a U.S. government report showing a surprise gain in nationwide crude inventories. A measure of oil price volatility also jumped on Wednesday on speculation rising conflict in the Middle East may hinder crude output and shrink a global glut, sending prices above the highs of January. Meanwhile, concerns remain that surging U.S. crude production will damp efforts by the OPEC and its allies to tighten the market and prop up prices. Tensions in the Middle East flared as Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a ballistic missile over Riyadh and shot down two drones in another part of the country on Wednesday in the latest attacks by Yemeni rebels. Just hours earlier, Trump had confirmed the U.S. would strike Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose forces are backed by Russia and Iran, over a suspected chemical weapons attack. With investors more concerned about events in the Middle East, the shock gain in U.S. stockpiles did little to tempter prices. Inventories increased 3.3 mn barrels last week, according to EIA’s data on Wednesday. That compares with a 1.25 mn-barrel decrease estimated in a Bloomberg survey before the data.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,350 1,357-1,363 1,370
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 67.00-67.50 68.00 68.90-69.60
EURO/USD 1.2400-1.2450 1.2510 1.2560
GBP/USD 1.4200 1.4250-1.4300 1.4350
USD/JPY 107.50-108.00 108.70 109.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,340-1,331 1,320 1,311-1306
Silver-XAG 16.50 16.00-15.80 15.60
Crude Oil 66.50-66.00 65.20 64.50-64.00
EURO/USD 1.2350-1.2300 1.2250 1.2210-1.2150
GBP/USD 1.4150-1.4120 1.4070 1.3990
USD/JPY 106.70 106.00 105.50-104.90

Intra-Day Strategy (12th April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1365.06/oz and low of US$1338.99/oz. Gold was up by 1.016% at US$1353.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1350-1370 keeping stop loss closing above 1370 and targeting 1340-1331-1320 and 1311-1306. Buy above 1340-1306 with risk below 1306, targeting 1350-1357 and 1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,340-1,331
S2     1,320
S3     1,311-1306
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,350
R2     1,357-1,363
R3     1,370

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.686

Buy
20-DMA   1335.46 Sell
50-DMA  

1329.11

Buy
100-DMA   1318.37 Buy
200-DMA   1301.07 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.584 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.525 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$16.86/oz and low of US$16.51/oz. Silver settled up by 0.665% at US$16.65/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50
S2     16.00-15.80
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.796 Buy
20-DMA   16.48 Sell
50-DMA   16.54 Sell Sell
100-DMA   16.64 Sell
200-DMA   16.77 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   70.899 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0056 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$67.36/bbl, intraday low of US$65.08/bbl and settled up by 1.694% to close at US$66.60/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 66.50-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 66.50-66.00-65.20 and 64.50-64.00-63.30. Buy above 66.50-62.70 with risk daily closing below 62.70 and targeting 67.00-67.50-68.00 and 68.90-69.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     66.50-66.00
S2     65.20
S3     64.50-64.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.00-67.50
R2     68.00
R3     68.90-69.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.500 Sell
20-DMA   64.08 Buy
50-DMA   62.96 Buy
100-DMA   61.01 Buy
200-DMA   57.58 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.622 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.798 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.2352/EUR, high of US$1.2379/EUR and settled the day up by 0.089% to close at US$1.2371/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2350-1.2510 targeting 1.2210-1.2160 and 1.2090-1.2000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2450. Buy above 1.2300-1.2000 with risk below 1.2000 targeting 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2450-1.2510.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2350-1.2300
S2     1.2250
S3     1.2210-1.2150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2400-1.2450
R2     1.2510
R3     1.2560

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.038 Buy
20-DMA   1.2324 Sell
50-DMA   1.2292 Sell
100-DMA   1.2177 Buy
200-DMA   1.1939 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.359 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4159/GBP, high of US$1.4223/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0042% to close at US$1.4173/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4200-1.4350 with targets at 1.4170-1.4120-1.4070 and 1.4010- 1.3910. Buy above 1.4150-1.3910 with stop loss closing below 1.3910 targeting 1.4200-1.4250 and 1.4350-1.4400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.4150-1.4120
S2     1.4070
S3     1.3990

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4200
R2     1.4250-1.4300
R3     1.4350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.833

Buy
20-DMA   1.4078 Buy
50-DMA   1.3980 Buy
100-DMA   1.3808 Buy
200-DMA   1.3553 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   61.728 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0051 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.64/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.24/USD and settled the day down by 0.382% at JPY106.78/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.70
S2     106.00
S3     105.50-104.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.00
R2     108.70
R3     109.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.190 Buy
20-DMA   106.58 Sell
50-DMA   107.23 Sell
100-DMA   108.53 Sell
200-DMA   109.72 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   50.387 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0525 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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