AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share markets were mixed and oil prices fell on Monday as relief U.S.-led strikes on Syria looked unlikely to escalate was tempered by concerns at Russia's potential reaction to new sanctions from Washington. The United States, France and Britain launched 105 missiles targeting what the Pentagon said were three chemical weapons facilities in Syria in retaliation for a suspected poison gas attack in Douma on April 7. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Sunday that further Western attacks on Syria would bring chaos to world affairs, as Washington prepared to increase pressure on Russia with new economic sanctions. But with President Donald Trump declaring mission accomplished, investors wagered the worst had been avoided. Dealers were keeping a wary eye on Japanese politics after a survey showed support for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had fallen to 26.7 percent, the lowest since he took office in late 2012. Abe's sliding ratings are raising doubts over whether he can win a third three-year term as ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader in a September vote, or whether he might even resign before the party election. Yet with expectations so high, bank shares ran into profit-taking on Friday after a batch of mixed results. In Asia, China reports its gross domestic product for the first quarter on Tuesday with market forecasts clustered around growth of 6.7 percent to 6.8 percent. The United States reports retail sales later on Monday and there are around 15 Federal Reserve speakers in the diary for the week. Also this week, the IMF will hold its spring meetings of central bankers and finance ministers in Washington.
  • The dollar dipped on Monday as markets weighed the impact of strikes on Syria by the United States and its allies at the weekend, although losses were limited as the military action did not result in broad risk aversion. The United States, France and Britain launched missiles targeting what the Pentagon said were chemical weapons facilities in Syria on Saturday, in retaliation for a suspected poison gas attack on April 7. Suggesting that the military action would not be prolonged, Trump declared "mission accomplished" after the strikes. There were still concerns, however, about Russia's potential reaction to new economic sanctions from Washington. Although the yen usually draws demand in times of political tension and market turmoil due to its perceived safe-haven status, the dollar's losses against its Japanese peer were limited. Support for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, plagued by accusations of cronyism and cover-ups, fell to 26.7 percent in a survey by private broadcaster Nippon TV released on Sunday, the lowest since he took office in December 2012. Still, others saw diminishing popularity for Abe at home weakening his position when he meets President Trump at the April 17-18 U.S.-Japan summit, possibly providing fresh impetus for some participants to bet on renewed yen appreciation Expectations of a rate rise from the Bank of England have been a major driver of sterling's gains in recent days.
  • Oil prices fell on Monday as markets opened the week cautiously following western air strikes in Syria over the weekend, and as American drilling for new production continued to rise. The United States, France and Britain launched 105 missiles on Saturday, targeting what they said were three chemical weapons facilities in Syria in retaliation for a suspected poison gas attack in Douma on April 7. Traders said markets in Asia began cautiously after the weekend strikes, while oil markets also came under pressure from a rise in U.S. oil drilling activity. U.S. energy companies added seven oil rigs drilling for new production in the week to April 13, bringing the total to 815, the highest since March 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday. Despite this, Brent is still up more than 16 percent from its 2018 low in February, due to healthy demand and also because of conflict and tension in the Middle East. Although Syria itself is not a significant oil producer itself, the wider Middle East is the world’s most important crude exporter and tension in the region tends to put oil markets on edge. he United States, Britain, and France pounded Syria in a coordinated air strike on Friday night, in response to an alleged chemical weapons attack earlier this month believed to be carried out by forces aligned with the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad in Douma, a town that was held by Syrian rebels. Suggesting that the military action would not be prolonged, President Donald Trump hailed the U.S.-led intervention in Syria as "perfectly executed" in a tweet on Saturday, adding that the military campaign to degrade the Assad regime's chemical weapons capability had accomplished its goals. While Syria is not a significant oil producer itself, the wider Middle East is the world's most important crude exporter and tension in the region tends to put oil markets on edge.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,350 1,357-1,363 1,366
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 67.00-67.50 68.00 68.90-69.60
EURO/USD 1.2350 1.2400-1.2450 1.2510
GBP/USD 1.4250-1.4300 1.4350 1.4400
USD/JPY 107.50-108.00 108.70 109.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,340-1,331 1,320 1,311-1306
Silver-XAG 16.40 16.00-15.80 15.60
Crude Oil 66.50-66.00 65.20 64.50-64.00
EURO/USD 1.2300 1.2250 1.2210-1.2150
GBP/USD 1.4200 1.4150-1.4120 1.4070
USD/JPY 106.70 106.00 105.50-104.90

Intra-Day Strategy (16th April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1347.04/oz and low of US$1333.54/oz. Gold was up by 1,309% at US$1345.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1350-1370 keeping stop loss closing above 1370 and targeting 1340-1331-1320 and 1311-1306. Buy above 1340-1306 with risk below 1306, targeting 1350-1357 and 1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,340-1,331
S2     1,320
S3     1,311-1306
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,350
R2     1,357-1,363
R3     1,366

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.510

Buy
20-DMA   1335.90 Sell
50-DMA  

1329.75

Buy
100-DMA   1318.37 Buy
200-DMA   1301.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   57.015 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   3.345 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.67/oz and low of US$16.43/oz. Silver settled up by 1.27% at US$16.64/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40
S2     16.00-15.80
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.168 Buy
20-DMA   16.49 Sell
50-DMA   16.54 Sell
100-DMA   16.63 Sell
200-DMA   16.77 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   70.899 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0056 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$67.62/bbl, intraday low of US$66.59/bbl and settled up by 0.495% to close at US$67.23/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 66.50-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 66.50-66.00-65.20 and 64.50-64.00-63.30. Buy above 66.50-62.70 with risk daily closing below 62.70 and targeting 67.00-67.50-68.00 and 68.90-69.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     66.50-66.00
S2     65.20
S3     64.50-64.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.00-67.50
R2     68.00
R3     68.90-69.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.882 Sell
20-DMA   64.59 Buy
50-DMA   63.26 Buy
100-DMA   61.24 Buy
200-DMA   57.87 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.825 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.006 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.2306/EUR, high of US$1.2379/EUR and settled the day down by 0.323% to close at US$1.2325/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2350-1.2510 targeting 1.2210-1.2160 and 1.2090-1.2000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2450. Buy above 1.2300-1.2000 with risk below 1.2000 targeting 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2450-1.2510.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2300
S2     1.2250
S3     1.2210-1.2150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2350
R2     1.2400-1.2450
R3     1.2510

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.066 Buy
20-DMA   1.2320 Sell
50-DMA   1.2292 Sell
100-DMA   1.2179 Buy
200-DMA   1.1943 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.305 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4144/GBP, high of US$1.4246/GBP and settled the day up by 0.374% to close at US$1.4224/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4250-1.4350 with targets at 1.4170-1.4120-1.4070 and 1.4010- 1.3910. Buy above 1.4200-1.4000 with stop loss closing below 1.3910 targeting 1.4200-1.4250 and 1.4350-1.4400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.4200
S2     1.4150-1.4120
S3     1.4070

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4250-1.4300
R2     1.4350
R3     1.4400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.1442

Buy
20-DMA   1.4110 Buy
50-DMA   1.4001 Buy
100-DMA   1.3825 Buy
200-DMA   1.3567 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.805 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0064 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY107.19/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.77/USD and settled the day up by 0.745% at JPY107.37/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.50-109.60 with risk above 109.60 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.70
S2     106.00
S3     105.50-104.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.00
R2     108.70
R3     109.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.642 Buy
20-DMA   106.75 Sell
50-DMA   107.25 Sell
100-DMA   108.49 Sell
200-DMA   109.68 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   65.161 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0151 Sell

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